Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Sanibel]

I think we can safely call a west 272* track into Nicaragua. At this track Felix could be mostly destroyed by the mountains. Will it pull up? Doesn't look like it to me.

[wxman57]

NHC looks way too generous with the inland winds nearly 24 hours after the center is over land. I doubt it'll have any TS force winds by the time it nears the southern BoC. But my track is a bit left of the NHC track after 24 hours, and they do state that Felix will be much weaker if it tracks farther south. In any case, the threat to the Bay of Campeche is diminishing considerably.

[wxman57]

I think we can safely call a west 272* track into Nicaragua. At this track Felix could be mostly destroyed by the mountains. Will it pull up? Doesn't look like it to me.

I just measured between 272-273 deg. at 18 kts over the past 3 hours on GARP. Looking more likely Felix will make landfall in northern Nicaragua. That means a much more rapid death than the NHC indicated on their advisory. Might not be around past 48 hours.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

ERC? It appears that Felix's eye is kinda becoming cloudy.

[theworld]

3 coastal Webcams in Honduras, scroll down the page

http://www.webcamplaza.net/cams/hurricane1.html

[RDTF]

Puerto Lempira airport info

http://www.flightstats.com/go/Airport/a ... rtCode=PEU

[vacanechaser]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND REMAINS A
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS NICARAGUA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
585 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY
FOUR OR FIVE STATUS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...14.3 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[vacanechaser]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 031433
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WHICH COULD
BE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
MEASURED 162 KT WINDS AROUND 11Z WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT 145 KT
AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TO THAT OBSERVATION THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN A BIT AND THE EYE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED ON
VISUAL IMAGERY. SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY...TO 140 KT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE
PROCESSES ARE TYPICAL IN INTENSE HURRICANES. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT THUS
FAR BUT SUCH AN EVENT COULD OCCUR...AND IT WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE
ON THE INTENSITY OF FELIX. HOWEVER THESE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME OR TO PREDICT. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT... IN
TERMS OF WIND SHEAR AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF CAT 4/5 INTENSITY UNTIL INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WITH
RESPECT TO THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. CLEARLY IF
FELIX MOVES MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR FORECAST IT WILL REMAIN
STRONGER AND IF IT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK IT WOULD BE
MUCH WEAKER. INDEED...IF THE CYCLONE FAILS TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...IT COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

LATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE FAST WESTWARD MOTION...280/18...
CONTINUES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING ARE
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST FIELDS MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SO
THAT...IF THESE FORECASTS VERIFY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
UNABLE TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.3N 77.8W 140 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 80.4W 150 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.1N 83.2W 145 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 15.8N 85.9W 90 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1200Z 16.3N 88.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 17.5N 92.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 20.5N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

ERC? It appears that Felix's eye is kinda becoming cloudy.

Expect it to either clear out again or fill up completely. I think its gonna clear out again, considering the NHC still believes it is going to strengthen up to 150kts. No signs of an ERC at the moment, so if the eye totally fills in, it is weakening from now on.

[theworld]

WRBN Live Radio from region... switches between English and Spanish

http://www.wrbn.net/

[Furious George]

NHC looks way too generous with the inland winds nearly 24 hours after the center is over land. I doubt it'll have any TS force winds by the time it nears the southern BoC. But my track is a bit left of the NHC track after 24 hours, and they do state that Felix will be much weaker if it tracks farther south. In any case, the threat to the Bay of Campeche is diminishing considerably.

11 am NHC track has Felix barely moving into the BOC (if it assumes the middle of the cone path), so they've shifted left a bit now. Good news for lower Mx coast, bad for Nic/Honduras.

BTW, those long term plots you posted of the ridging a few days ago really seemed to pan out. Seems like you were a little more accurate than the NHC on this one. I would be curious to know of your track record vs the NHC.

[Sanibel]

Though I doubt it very much, this could be a long wobble and will pull up this afternoon. The storm was somewhat WNW yesterday.

[RDTF]

Oil prices advance as traders monitor Hurricane Felix

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidANA314246141550

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

looks like a secondry eyewall is definitely intensifying now

[Zardoz]

It's expanding now:

Floater One Visible

Floater One AVN

[MGC]

Felix's continued west track has likely spared Belize and portions of northern Honduras. Felix remains a compact hurricane with maxium radius of hurricane force winds of 25 nautical miles. Somewhat surprised no eyewall replacement cycle has occured. This would actually be a bad time for an EWRC to occur as it would allow the wind field to expand and allow another eye contraction prior to landfall. Felix has been a Cat-5 over 12 hours now....impressive. Rain will be the major concern, lets hope Felix keeps moving at a rapid clip.....MGC

[Chacor]

Latest POD:
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING FIX FOR 04/2100Z
HAS BEEN ADDED TO TODAY'S AIR FORCE MISSION.
NOAA P-3 MISSIONS FOR 04/0000Z AND 04/1200Z HAVE
BEEN CANCELED.

This presumably after the P3 encountered the graupel and turbulence.

[theworld]

looks like a donut..

[Sanibel]

I was just coming in to post that a loose second eyewall appears to be showing on visible.

The eye is in the south part of that donut above. Which means to watch for it correcting WNW back into the middle.

[wxman57]

NHC looks way too generous with the inland winds nearly 24 hours after the center is over land. I doubt it'll have any TS force winds by the time it nears the southern BoC. But my track is a bit left of the NHC track after 24 hours, and they do state that Felix will be much weaker if it tracks farther south. In any case, the threat to the Bay of Campeche is diminishing considerably.

11 am NHC track has Felix barely moving into the BOC (if it assumes the middle of the cone path), so they've shifted left a bit now. Good news for lower Mx coast, bad for Nic/Honduras.

BTW, those long term plots you posted of the ridging a few days ago really seemed to pan out. Seems like you were a little more accurate than the NHC on this one. I would be curious to know of your track record vs the NHC.

My job here isn't to try to out-do the NHC on forecast tracks. They have an excellent track record and I really respect them over there. What we do is to try to convey the timing of the effects of the storms to our clients rather than focus on the exact path. In this case, I wasn't going to be fooled again that the models that did so poorly with Dean 2 weeks ago. Figuring out what model to follow was the key (ECMWF).