Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[vacanechaser]

The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

ummm what?

Dean? Felix? Cat 5's? Quiet?

I'm pretty sure marcane was referring to this moment in time, meaning it looks quiet right now. Not that the season overall has been dead.

thats what i was going to say... you people are too quick to jump on people here... geezzz, relax


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ConvergenceZone]

I say if 99L does not get going by Friday evening then it is time to kiss this baby goodbye. Looks like 99L is being absorbed into that trough. The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

I guess you haven't seen the wave that's about to roll off Africa that models are developing. Looks really good to me and others.

[HURAKAN]

ANOMALIES:

09062007:


09072002


Matt, maybe is that we don't understand everything related to the effects of ENSO/El Niño or La Niña phenomena, but if in 2002 we had a weak El Niño, then right now we must be experiencing at least a weak La Niña.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Except the Caribbean the Atlantic looks like we are going through a El nino like pattern.

Last I checked that isn't a bad thing.

That is a point of view thing. We might not see eye to eye on this?

[HURAKAN]

I guess you haven't seen the wave that's about to roll off Africa that models are developing. Looks really good to me and others.

Models were and still are developing 99L. Until I see the wave getting better organized over the ocean, then there is nothing to cheer about. We always commit the same error every time a system looks promising and models are pushing for development.

[Category 5]

Except the Caribbean the Atlantic looks like we are going through a El nino like pattern.

Last I checked that isn't a bad thing.

That is a point of view thing. We might not see eye to eye on this?

Considering I live an in area thats occasionally threatened by tropical systems I guess we don't. But hey, thats ok, you can't agree with everyone on everything.

[marcane_1973]

The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

ummm what?

Dean? Felix? Cat 5's? Quiet?

I'm pretty sure marcane was referring to this moment in time, meaning it looks quiet right now. Not that the season overall has been dead.

Exactly. Thank you

[Category 5]

my apologies then Marcane_1973 I misunderstood you.

[marcane_1973]

my apologies then Marcane_1973 I misunderstood you.

No problem. It's all good.

[OuterBanker]

Come on Rocky, you can do it. You have been beat up for several days now, and beat bad. But not you gotta chance, get up off that canvas and show em what you got. Somebody give Popeye a can of spinach.

Hey, that little llc has lasted through very hostile conditions for some time. I gotta believe

[Stormcenter]

I say if 99L does not get going by Friday evening then it is time to kiss this baby goodbye. Looks like 99L is being absorbed into that trough. The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

It's not being absorbed by the trough. If you look at a loop the LLC seems to be almost stationary and separated from the trough.



Latest.

I'm sorry but that is painful to look at. I mean come on what is it?
Seriously though it looks even more pathetic then it did yestesday when
a lot of folks were crying foul at the NHC for not classifying it a TD or TS.
Yes as I said yesterday it could still form into something but i wouldn't hold
my breath that it will a Cat.2-3 storm like again some on this board were
predicting.

[dwg71]

I say if 99L does not get going by Friday evening then it is time to kiss this baby goodbye. Looks like 99L is being absorbed into that trough. The Atlantic sure is quiet being near the peak of the season.

I guess you haven't seen the wave that's about to roll off Africa that models are developing. Looks really good to me and others.

Waves off of Africa rarely develop. It's very rare.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



This is like a patient in intensive care, you just need to wait how it responds over the next 24 hours.

[KWT]

stormcenter, it looks way worse then yesterday, at least yesterday you could make a claim it was a depression with its strong convection and SAt.Estimates backing up that idea, today it really does look one step away from poof, can just about make out the LLC still underneath the sheared clouds.

(dwg---i presume you means waves that come Africa rarely develop til lthey get further west???)

[HURAKAN]

(dwg---i presume you means waves that come Africa rarely develop til lthey get further west???)

Or if you consider the # of waves that leave Africa every year divided by the # that actually develops, then his claim is right.

[CrazyC83]

For those saying this is dead, remember we still have a closed circulation! It just needs to detatch itself more and fire up and we have TD7...

[CrazyC83]

Latest QuikSCAT - still closed around 28.7°N 69.2°W

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

[windstorm99]

[CrazyC83]

It looks quite a bit better than it did 4 hours ago (clearly see clouds surrounding the center)...diurnal maximum?

[KWT]

Or if you consider the # of waves that leave Africa every year divided by the # that actually develops, then his claim is right.

don't want to take it off-topic but that may true for the whoel year but for August/September the percentage shows its not actually all that rare for waves to form, i remember someone saying between 20-40% of the waves develop, of course that means more don't form then do but its not exactly rare!

It looks a touch better then a few hours ago but it still looks like its in very bad shape right now and is still getting sheared.