Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[deltadog03]

Euro will score again with Felix. This should be peoples model of choice for the rest of the season!

[Zardoz]

For reference:



The northeastern part of the country is pretty sparsely populated, fortunately.

[Tireman4]

My wife (Her mom and dad immigrated from Honduras and she was born in the USA) has aunts, uncles and cousins that live in San Pedro Sula. My brother in law was just down there this past May. She told me it was not the winds of Hurricane Mitch so much, but the rains. She told me the mudslides were the worst. Her cousin's house still has the markings of the where the mud was in the house. I was asking about home insurance and she just looked at me and laughed. We may have it she said, but only the very few can afford it in Honduras. I pray for the folks in that Central American country.

[oyster_reef]

pinhole eye... very tight!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

ALL of Honduras is going to be hit hard by the flooding

This is the poster child storm of DO NOT FOCUS ON THE FORECAST TRACK

[Buck]

I'm surprised that with such a small eye, the pressure is as high as it is.

[miamicanes177]

CNN to interview crew member from flight that had to abort sunday afternoon at 10:30 am ET.

[Zardoz]

ALL of Honduras is going to be hit hard by the flooding.

Yes, it is. This is going to be really bad.

[gotoman38]

RDTF -
What about the people on the Bay Islands? Will many of them be able to evacuate to the Mainland?

That will depend on the Honduran government. I believe the NHC has already expressed them the high level of threat Félix is for their safety. Honduras has had a lot of experience with hurricanes and I think they know how to react. Lets hope everyone gets out of those islands.

One island that I'm particularly concoerned about is Guanaja - I think the villagers are planning to ride it out in a church - no real evac. is available according to reports from here:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/honduras.shtml

[PhillyWX]

ALL of Honduras is going to be hit hard by the flooding

This is the poster child storm of DO NOT FOCUS ON THE FORECAST TRACK

As well as northern Nicaragua.

[HURAKAN]

I'm surprised that with such a small eye, the pressure is as high as it is.

Félix is surrounded by a high pressure environment.

[Derek Ortt]

and Guatemala and possibly El Salvador as well may experience flooding

[Sanibel]

Two category 5's in a row that trended left! Sanibel scratches his head. Looks like Belize just got a reprieve.

Well at least this might finally stop that Texas talk for once.

[miamicanes177]

Fifi was traveling at 11mph and killed 8,000. Felix is expected to slow down wednesday to between 7-10mph according to the GFDL. This has potential to be one of the worst disasters of all time.

[miamicanes177]

cnn interview with pilot that had to abort coming up now

[LCfromFL]

Two category 5's in a row that trended left! Sanibel scratches his head. Looks like Belize just got a reprieve.

Well at least this might finally stop that Texas talk for once.

So much for those "stronger = poleward" theorists...

[Evil Jeremy]

Pressure up to 940

000
WTNT21 KNHC 031429
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS NICARAGUA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 80.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.1N 83.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.8N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.3N 88.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[miamicanes177]

NHC says Felix has weakened to 160mph despite reporting its highest flight level winds ever of 162kts the last pass. 162kts with 90% reduction is 167mph.

[njweather]

It should be noted that Felix will be stronger than Fifi on impact (at least that's what they're forecasting), but will have less moisture/size.

[miamicanes177]

NHC says Felix has weakened to 160mph despite reporting its highest flight level winds ever of 162kts the last pass. 162kts with 90% reduction is 167mph.

NHC admits the 162kts at flight level in the discussion, but justifies the downgrade by saying the eye is not well defined and the pressure is going up.