Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards

[punkyg]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
In this link it say ex ingrid has a low with it.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,it has T Numbers again!.

19/1145 UTC 21.1N 64.2W T1.0/1.0 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hey folks,it has T Numbers again!.

19/1145 UTC 21.1N 64.2W T1.0/1.0 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

Same on page 6 Luis...

[gatorcane]

It's back folks ---- the shear couldn't get her. Thanks for editting the title.

Oh boy. Now lets see how strong she gets.

Sheared systems are always the most dangerous as they can avoid recurvature but remain intact and wait down the road to develop.

and looks like Ingrid may have some of these plans of her own.

[cycloneye]

This thread is moved to this forum as NRL is active with it again and also is getting T Numbers.

[gatorcane]

Notice she is in about 20K of shear instead of 30K plus and look is what out ahead of her just about 100 miles. Only 10K of shear and is decreasing as we speak as a narrow ridge continues to push in from the North.

[mattpetre]

This should be interesting over the next few days. If ex-Ingrid does make a comeback, does she get a new name? Someone should do a poll as to which storm will reach the greatest intensity 93L or ex-Ingrid. I'm not putting my vote in till someone creates the poll

[umguy1]

I love a good comeback story.

[deltadog03]

This should have a good chance of developing. All the models forecast the development of an anticyclone over the top of this.

[canegrl04]

Holy Cow She gets the comeback of the year award if she becomes a hurricane

[alienstorm]

The question is now what direction she will head in? TAFB is forecasting a Northward movement, however the canadian is moving her slowly out to the west. Maybe some pro's can chime in with their analysis.

[boca]

Ex-Ingrid has been on the navy site since yesterday afternoon when I mentioned it.Where does it go from here.

[deltadog03]

should move WNW as there is a building ridge north of it. Should block it in there.

[MiamiensisWx]

Ingrid's remnants are situated beneath the base of the TUTT and an upper low, so you see low shear on the CIMSS charts. Air Force Met discussed this situation in the 93L thread. Ingrid is not coming "back from the dead". Shear is probably ~20-25 kts at the upper levels. Don't focus on the 850-700 mbar (low-level) shear. I still think 93L has much better chances (in the Gulf of Mexico) than Ingrid's remnants.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Additionally, this system may not move W if any LLC establishes itself further N.

[Chacor]

Models aren't being run on it yet, unlike Ivo, 93L or 98E.

[gatorcane]

Holy Cow She gets the comeback of the year award if she becomes a hurricane

canegirl this is no surprise to me as I have said before.

I'll continue to be watching her and looking at the ULL winds which are key. As far as movement as some of us have been wondering, lets take a look at the mean mid-level flow currently (which of course will change) (see below). She is currently being steering largely by the low level flow but it is similar to the mid-level around Ingrid (probably more E to W) so I will refer to the mid-level flow here

We can see the ridge north of Ingrid and the flow looks to be NW BUT that ULL over Florida (area near 93L) is progged to move West by the global models. The ridge over the Southern US is going to move east and build eastward merging with the high that is off the East Coast of the US now. This is not a surprise either. Pro Mets and myself have been forecasting strong CONUS ridging since late last week.

What this means is that a blocking ridge is going to setup by the weekend that will keep her on a W to WNW movement. She may move NW for a bit now but should bend back to the West over the next couple of days. I am then forecasting the ULL winds to gradually relax as she goes under the influence of strong ridging to the north.

[rockyman]

I love a good comeback story.

2 comeback stories come to mind...Andrew and Katrina...the 2 costliest hurricanes in US history both made comebacks east of the Bahamas...both then hit south Florida then Louisiana

[gatorcane]

Puerto Rico satellite image until the floater is moved back to Ingrid:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

Latest:

[boca]

Here's the floater its back.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[gatorcane]

Here's the floater its back.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

Interesting the NHC moved it back so quickly.

Would not be surprised to see a slightly different tone in the next discussion -- although since the NHC is conservative maybe expect something like "although conditions are not favorable now, conditions may gradually become somewhat more favorable over the next couple of days as it moves WNW."

I am very shocked there is not more interest in this system ATM. I forsee it will really draw this board's attention gradually over the next couple of days and will be the next one this board is closely monitoring.