Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Ptarmigan]

Hmmmmm, I notice a swirl on radar. Could be getting better organized. We will find out in the morning.

[srainhoutx]

A broad low has formed over the Western GOM and that is made obvious by the above radar loops run on the long range. As the system moves WNW to NW towards the TX coast and interacts with the front stalled near the coast we can look for copious tropical rains from this combination, especially along the middle and upper TX coast. I hope it does not start move West close to the coast and then start a more Northerly movement and basically ride up the coast along the front(whatever may develop out there).

From Jeff:

Area of low pressure forms over the western Gulf of Mexico.



Parameters coming together for heavy rains over SE TX.



Discussion:



Slow moving weak boundary currently entering the N part of SE TX while tropical feature has developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. Boundary to the N will sag southward today acting as a lifting focus for thunderstorm development. This boundary should stall out along the I-10 corridor tonight and remain over the area through Friday.



Per NHC and HPC discussions on tropical low over the western Gulf…some slow development of this system is possible as it moves toward the lower TX coast. IR images along with surface data support a broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles S of Galveston or about 180 miles E of Brownsville. This low is drifting toward the WNW at around 5-10mph. Upper air conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development over the next 12-24 hours as the system approaches the TX coast. GFS has joined the CMC, UKMET, and NAM and is now closing the system off into a closed low. GFS stalls the feature along the middle TX coast Wednesday night into late Thursday as steering flow collapses. We shall see what the first visible images show this morning. Point should be made that regardless if it develops or not lots of moisture will be thrown into SE TX on the NE side of the circulation center.



Stalling frontal boundary will combine with deep tropical moisture moving northward from tropical low to produce excessive heavy rains along coastal TX. Boundary has had no problem producing 4-8 inch amounts over OK and N TX without deep tropical tap the last two days. Feel HPC guidance is grossly underestimating the rainfall potential given slow storm motion and nearly saturated air column. Should Gulf low spin up into a better defined tropical system rainfall patterns will concentrate along and well NE of the low center…similar to Erin. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches widespread with isolated amounts upwards of 8 inches will be possible through Thursday.



As always when dealing with potential tropical developments the forecast will be subject to large changes.

I have to agree vbhoutex. Wxman57 mentioned on page 9 of locked thread of 5-10 inches possible and some isolated spots even higher.

[Stratosphere747]

Even though this shows being based on imagery through 515 UTC. I would venture to guess that it was based on the imagery right before the eclipse took hold. Still looks to be quite disorganized out there, without any definitive center.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF IS CENTERED NEAR
27N95W...ANALYZED 1011 MB DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS
LOW APPEARS RATHER RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH CONVECTION
SPARSE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STRETCHED OUT AND
ELONGATED. SFC OBS CLEARLY SHOW A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS BOTH
NNE AND SSW OF THE LOW CENTER. PART OF THIS LOW/TROUGH IS IN
RADAR RANGE WHICH DEPICTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ROTATING ABOUT THE LOW/TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LACKS ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS IT CONTINUES
ITS SLOW WNW DRIFT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[vbhoutex]

I know this is OT, but this all better be gone from our area by Saturday!!! That is my daughters wedding!!!! You'd think the kid's would learn from their folks that are "weatherwise" not to have a wedding near the peak of the season!!!

Now back on topic. I don't like what I am hearing from both Jeff and wxman!!!! Please NO FLOODING RAINS!!!! And I will act like I didn't see that "A" word in the TT post wxman.

[southerngale]

Looks like something could be finally taking hold. Easy to see some sort of circulation from all three coastal long range radars, and even Lake Charles - And yes nothing like using long range radar... Could be deceiving, but looks like this might be a start.

Links please, thanks!

Use all the local radars Storm - http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Brownsville, Corpus, Houston and even Lake Charles.

And this one isn't as detailed as NWS, but a nice look at the overall picture...

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USTX1200&animate=true&enlarge=true

[Stratosphere747]

That intellicast radar does make it look as if the low that Corpus saw earlier may be trying to take hold. When using the other local radars it appears to remain a broad area.

Nothing like trying to find a possible low with LR radar or IR.....

[srainhoutx]

I know this is OT, but this all better be gone from our area by Saturday!!! That is my daughters wedding!!!! You'd think the kid's would learn from their folks that are "weatherwise" not to have a wedding near the peak of the season!!!

Now back on topic. I don't like what I am hearing from both Jeff and wxman!!!! Please NO FLOODING RAINS!!!! And I will act like I didn't see that "A" word in the TT post wxman.

Off Topic, but I had a response to that "A" word he mentioned. Now back on Topic, looks like a lot of moisture moving in for tomorrow throuh Friday.

[attallaman]

Radar links

HOU/GAL

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Corpus Christi

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Brownsville

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Lake Charles

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Will note that pressures are still faily high at this time...


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

I've never used the NWS radars before; most of the time it's been either Accuweather or Intellicast that I've used. Can those radar images from the NWS be set to animation?

[Stratosphere747]

The links that Srain provided go directly to animation.

[attallaman]

The links that Srain provided go directly to animation.

Thank you very much. Those on the board from the Houston area; will this rain event possibly pose a threat to Colorado County? I have relatives who live near Columbus.

[srainhoutx]

The links that Srain provided go directly to animation.

Thank you very much. Those on the board from the Houston area; will this rain event possibly pose a threat to Colorado County? I have relatives who live near Columbus.

Hope this link helps for Columbus...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=160

[attallaman]

The links that Srain provided go directly to animation.

Thank you very much. Those on the board from the Houston area; will this rain event possibly pose a threat to Colorado County? I have relatives who live near Columbus.

Hope this link helps for Columbus...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=160

Well that link takes me to the NWS page for Columbus; I am able to click on the satellite image on the page with no problem but when I click on the radar image on the page it takes me to another screen which is blank. I must not be doing something right but thanks for the post anyway.

[srainhoutx]

no problem

[PTrackerLA]

Satellite has come out of eclipse, looks very interesting. I think we will have a TD today based on this and the spiral bands all over radar. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Satellite has come out of eclipse, looks very interesting. I think we will have a TD today based on this and the spiral bands all over radar. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

Convection is firing near the center of the MLC. Also there is a surface trough with buoys showing a partly closed wind field. But I doubt that this will be upgraded before 91L, which looks much more organized and has a LLC.

[srainhoutx]

Satellite has come out of eclipse, looks very interesting. I think we will have a TD today based on this and the spiral bands all over radar. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

Thanks PTrackerLA about the eclipse update. Some folks will be a little surprised in the morning with the developments overnight. Looks as good as Erin ever did prior to landfall in my humble opinion. Going to bed, long day tomorrow.

[attallaman]

Satellite has come out of eclipse, looks very interesting. I think we will have a TD today based on this and the spiral bands all over radar. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

Impressive satellite imagery; thanks for the post.

[Stratosphere747]

Well this might get a little interesting....

[TexasSam]

I normally look at the weather just before I go to bed, and happened to look at a radar loop, jumped up and looked at it again, and noticed it all spinning around, and each time I update it, it looks even more interesting! Good stiff northeast wind here in Baytown at times.

[Starburst]

It has indeed made some impressive progress just within the eclipse time.