Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[TheShrimper]

Wandering aimlessly...Drift City and loopty doo. Should be interesting, to say the least.

[PhillyWX]

Wandering aimlessly...Drift City and loopty doo. Should be interesting, to say the least.

12z GFDL today was the only GFDL run to bring it inland.

[canegrl04]

Wandering aimlessly...Drift City and loopty doo. Should be interesting, to say the least.

Reminescent of a hurricane off the east coast in 1967.It did all kinds of zigzags and loopty doos.Can't think of its name at the moment

[Brent]

Wandering aimlessly...Drift City and loopty doo. Should be interesting, to say the least.

Reminescent of a hurricane off the east coast in 1967.It did all kinds of zigzags and loopty doos.Can't think of its name at the moment

Hit the Outer Banks from the NORTH!

[chadtm80]

Wandering aimlessly...Drift City and loopty doo. Should be interesting, to say the least.

Reminescent of a hurricane off the east coast in 1967.It did all kinds of zigzags and loopty doos.Can't think of its name at the moment

Was Doria.. Got up to Cat one strength, but hit as a TS http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/create ... &year=1967

[Nimbus]

Lots of dry air blowing down over 99L on the east side of that high.
The lowest clouds seem to be forming a LLC. The naked swirl looked almost stationary at sunset with all the convection blowing off to the east. Unless the ridge builds over the LLC 99L is going to have a tough time with shear.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0103 UTC WED SEP 5 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070904 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070904 1800 070905 0600 070905 1800 070906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 74.3W 29.2N 73.7W 29.1N 73.2W 28.4N 73.2W
BAMD 29.3N 74.3W 29.3N 72.3W 30.2N 70.5W 31.3N 68.7W
BAMM 29.3N 74.3W 29.1N 73.2W 29.4N 72.4W 29.2N 72.4W
LBAR 29.3N 74.3W 29.2N 72.7W 29.9N 71.5W 30.8N 70.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070906 1800 070907 1800 070908 1800 070909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.6N 73.8W 27.5N 74.2W 31.0N 73.4W 35.7N 72.6W
BAMD 32.1N 67.5W 33.4N 68.5W 35.6N 70.4W 39.1N 69.9W
BAMM 28.9N 73.2W 28.9N 75.7W 30.6N 77.4W 33.6N 77.4W
LBAR 32.0N 68.6W 33.9N 63.4W 35.8N 59.6W 35.0N 58.4W
SHIP 52KTS 64KTS 69KTS 64KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 69KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.3N LONCUR = 74.3W DIRCUR = 100DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 76.3W DIRM12 = 106DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 30.3N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[windstorm99]

Models trending on keeping 99L completely of the coast...

[Thunder44]

12z ECMWF:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[storms in NC]

Models trending on keeping 99L completely of the coast...

Pick a straw any straw Short one loses.

[Stephanie]

12z ECMWF:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

The CMC and GFS has it riding up the NJ Turnpike!

The NOGAPS loop ends in/near VA.

[canegrl04]

Wandering aimlessly...Drift City and loopty doo. Should be interesting, to say the least.

Reminescent of a hurricane off the east coast in 1967.It did all kinds of zigzags and loopty doos.Can't think of its name at the moment

Was Doria.. Got up to Cat one strength, but hit as a TS http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/create ... &year=1967

Yep. From what I hear,it became a hurricane,then back to TS,then hurricane again.Biggest storm during that light season was Beulah.It was 160mph but got shredded over Hispanola

[canegrl04]

Models trending on keeping 99L completely of the coast...

Sheesh That looks like my comb after my doggies chewed on it

[cycloneye]

00z GFS run starting

I never thought that the TWO would be out later than the srart of the GFS run.

[cycloneye]

6 hours

[cycloneye]

24 hours

[cycloneye]

36 hours

[cycloneye]

48 hours

Nearly stationary

[gatorcane]

actually its shade farther south here....almost along the lattitude of Jupiter/Port St. Lucie.........

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

models will underestimate the ridge likely
thats what they did with dean and felix
remember gfdl off in LA with dean??
i dont think gabrielle will go out to sea.