Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Aric Dunn]

Looks at those wispy clouds coming out of all sides of the main convective blob right now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

..If I remember correctly, don't those clouds usually mean that a storm is prime for rapid development? I seem to remember a met saying that during a past event. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

not necessarily.. we dont have a well defined surface circ and may be true with a developing hurricane but we barely have a TD

[Extremeweatherguy]

well we don't know that for sure Aric. For all we know, the LLC could have slipped under the convective blob since Recon left, and this storm could be trying to get it's act together. We probably will not know the full story until RECON gets out there again. I can't wait for that.

[RL3AO]

Recon scheduled for a 1pm takeoff tomorrow?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Recon scheduled for a 1pm takeoff tomorrow?

I think so, but I also heard that there was a 3am mission scheduled for tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

look a couple pages back its all posted

[weatherguru18]

Keep in mind that intermediate advisories will be posted in about 45min. Let's see what the they say. If this thing has relocated it's center a bit, the cone of destruction may need to be moved a bit up the coast.

As far as the watches, I think it is quiet extensive...covers a lot of territory for such a small system.

[hsvwx]

Looks at those wispy clouds coming out of all sides of the main convective blob right now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

..If I remember correctly, don't those clouds usually mean that a storm is prime for rapid development? I seem to remember a met saying that during a past event. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

My guess would be that the llc has now been further tucked underneath the convection as a few hours ago the convection built back southwestward towards the llc (falsely giving the appearance of more westward movement) Since then, the last few IR images surely seem to suggest that the outflow in the upper levels is improving, which I think will lead to gradual strengthening on its track towards the Texas coastline.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks at those wispy clouds coming out of all sides of the main convective blob right now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

..If I remember correctly, don't those clouds usually mean that a storm is prime for rapid development? I seem to remember a met saying that during a past event. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

My guess would be that the llc has now been further tucked underneath the convection as a few hours ago the convection built back southwestward towards the llc (falsely giving the appearance of more westward movement) Since then, the last few IR images surely seem to suggest that the outflow in the upper levels is improving, which I think will lead to gradual strengthening on its track towards the Texas coastline.

.

did you see those microwave images i posted that would confirm what you said they are from a few hours ago now but then you could tell that convection was trying to wrap around



and could you
help figure this stupid table out to see when the eclipse ends
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/EA ... -Rout.html

[Aric Dunn]

SSMI




TC_SSMIS


couple hours ago but great passes

here

[Aric Dunn]

Recon scheduled for a 1pm takeoff tomorrow?

I think so, but I also heard that there was a 3am mission scheduled for tonight.

FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/0900Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0630Z <------Take off
D. 25.0N 95.0W
E. 14/0730Z TO 14/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX AT 15/1500Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TD 04 IN ATLANTIC
AT 16/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 52.5W.

interesting but not related ... they are going to send recon out to Dean before 55W

Im not sure if i have seen that before.......fix is at 52.5 W

[RL3AO]

Take off in 1 hour. Very interesting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks at those wispy clouds coming out of all sides of the main convective blob right now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

..If I remember correctly, don't those clouds usually mean that a storm is prime for rapid development? I seem to remember a met saying that during a past event. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

My guess would be that the llc has now been further tucked underneath the convection as a few hours ago the convection built back southwestward towards the llc (falsely giving the appearance of more westward movement) Since then, the last few IR images surely seem to suggest that the outflow in the upper levels is improving, which I think will lead to gradual strengthening on its track towards the Texas coastline.

Thanks for the response! That is what I suspected, and I am glad to have confirmation.

[Bailey1777]

Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast/Advisory
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000
WTNT21 KNHC 150232
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

AT 10PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 91.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 91.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 90.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.8N 92.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.9N 94.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.0N 96.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 27.8N 98.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 91.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Aric Dunn]

from the 205am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS UPGRADED AT 15/0300 UTC AND IS
CENTERED NEAR 23.9N 91.1W AT 15/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 370 NM ESE OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DID FIND A SMALL LOW LEVEL CENTER...THUS
THE UPGRADE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN
89W-92W. ALTHOUGH RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

[hsvwx]

Looks at those wispy clouds coming out of all sides of the main convective blob right now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

..If I remember correctly, don't those clouds usually mean that a storm is prime for rapid development? I seem to remember a met saying that during a past event. Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

My guess would be that the llc has now been further tucked underneath the convection as a few hours ago the convection built back southwestward towards the llc (falsely giving the appearance of more westward movement) Since then, the last few IR images surely seem to suggest that the outflow in the upper levels is improving, which I think will lead to gradual strengthening on its track towards the Texas coastline.

.

did you see those microwave images i posted that would confirm what you said they are from a few hours ago now but then you could tell that convection was trying to wrap around



and could you
help figure this stupid table out to see when the eclipse ends
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/EA ... -Rout.html

Sorry about the table. I know about the eclipses, but am not familiar with that table. I know that KOZ stands for Keep Out Zone, meaning that if the imager were to scan at that time, it would be scanning too close to the sun, which could result in damage to the instrument. I'm not sure what NHEMI stands for, obviously Northern Hemisphere something or another. But it seems at the latest the eclipse would be over by about 2 am central time.

As far as the SSMI passes, without the convection circling the whole center, I don't think we can truly determine where the center is. However, I believe that it does help in what I was saying as the convection built over the llc to the southwest, as I stated earlier

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks ... darn i hate that table its annoying ..

[Bailey1777]

Still moving to the NW with center relocations to the North. I can see Freeport in it's sights.

[hsvwx]

Thanks ... darn i hate that table its annoying ..

yeah...you would think they would at least include a legend stating what means what.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast/Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT21 KNHC 150232
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

AT 10PM CDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TEXAS COAST FROM FREEPORT SOUTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 91.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 91.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 90.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.8N 92.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.9N 94.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.0N 96.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 27.8N 98.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 91.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

This is the original advisory and not the 1am update. The 1am update should be out soon though.

[HouTXmetro]

MLC on the NW side of the convection or is the center trying to reform even further North?