Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291615
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 06 20071029
160300 1903N 06721W 6957 03203 0124 +070 +054 168028 028 027 003 00
160330 1905N 06723W 6967 03191 0120 +073 +052 170029 029 029 002 00
160400 1906N 06725W 6965 03191 0120 +073 +049 170030 030 031 001 00
160430 1907N 06727W 6967 03192 0120 +075 +047 170030 030 033 000 00
160500 1909N 06729W 6967 03188 0114 +075 +046 171030 030 032 000 00
160530 1910N 06731W 6967 03191 0122 +075 +050 171029 029 031 000 00
160600 1912N 06733W 6967 03191 0122 +074 +049 170027 028 030 001 00
160630 1913N 06735W 6968 03189 0123 +068 +053 169026 026 031 000 00
160700 1915N 06737W 6967 03188 0119 +070 +051 171026 026 032 000 00
160730 1916N 06739W 6968 03185 0119 +070 +053 176026 026 030 001 00
160800 1918N 06741W 6967 03183 0114 +072 +059 177026 026 032 000 00
160830 1919N 06743W 6967 03182 0112 +072 +059 176025 026 033 000 00
160900 1920N 06746W 6968 03182 0114 +070 +067 178025 026 032 000 03
160930 1922N 06748W 6967 03182 0112 +070 +067 182027 027 033 000 00
161000 1923N 06750W 6967 03183 0114 +070 +067 185026 026 032 000 00
161030 1924N 06752W 6967 03182 0115 +070 +070 184026 027 033 000 00
161100 1925N 06754W 6967 03183 0118 +070 +067 181024 025 033 000 00
161130 1927N 06756W 6967 03183 0112 +071 +063 180024 024 033 000 00
161200 1928N 06758W 6965 03186 0112 +074 +068 178023 024 034 000 00
161230 1929N 06800W 6976 03174 0113 +071 +071 177024 024 030 002 00
$$

Now at operational altitude. 34 kt SFMR, 30 kt FL.

[NcentralFlaguy]

The GFS has been showing that one low would head into the NW Carribean and another would develop north around the Bahamas the last several days. So maybe the old LLC never made landfall in Haiti and continued move west. Perhaps it's really the GFDL wasn't so good on this system after all. At least not the evolution.

ECMWF shows the same thing - weak low tracking west into NW Caribbean south of Cuba, stronger low along NHC's path.

whats to become of the old LLC since there is evidence that there is one near Jamaica? just wash out I would imagine?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291625
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 07 20071029
161300 1931N 06802W 6963 03183 0107 +071 +071 179025 026 028 001 00
161330 1932N 06804W 6967 03179 0108 +070 +070 179026 027 030 001 00
161400 1933N 06805W 6967 03180 0111 +073 +063 175025 025 031 000 00
161430 1934N 06807W 6967 03183 0109 +075 +057 176025 026 029 002 00
161500 1935N 06809W 6967 03182 0108 +075 +057 175026 027 029 002 00
161530 1936N 06811W 6967 03180 0102 +078 +054 174027 027 030 002 00
161600 1937N 06812W 6965 03181 0099 +080 +053 169027 028 031 001 00
161630 1939N 06814W 6967 03180 0097 +080 +064 167027 027 031 001 00
161700 1940N 06816W 6966 03180 0095 +080 +061 163027 027 030 002 00
161730 1941N 06818W 6967 03179 0093 +083 +066 164026 027 031 002 00
161800 1942N 06820W 6966 03181 0097 +080 +067 163026 027 033 001 00
161830 1943N 06822W 6968 03181 0101 +078 +067 162026 027 030 003 00
161900 1944N 06823W 6966 03183 0107 +073 +073 164025 026 031 003 00
161930 1945N 06825W 6967 03180 9990 +073 +999 163025 026 031 003 01
162000 1947N 06827W 6965 03182 9990 +073 +999 166027 028 032 002 01
162030 1948N 06829W 6967 03180 9990 +074 +999 158027 029 031 003 01
162100 1949N 06831W 6967 03175 0100 +075 +075 155026 027 031 003 00
162130 1950N 06832W 6967 03175 0093 +078 +076 155027 028 032 002 00
162200 1951N 06834W 6967 03177 0100 +077 +074 152027 028 031 003 00
162230 1952N 06836W 6968 03177 0105 +073 +073 153028 030 032 004 00
$$

Still working the periphery.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291635
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 08 20071029
162300 1953N 06838W 6965 03181 0112 +068 +068 153028 029 033 006 00
162330 1955N 06840W 6967 03181 0102 +077 +074 154026 026 033 003 00
162400 1956N 06842W 6967 03182 9990 +079 +066 154027 027 036 005 20
162430 1957N 06843W 6967 03193 9990 +079 +069 157027 028 035 004 20
162500 1958N 06845W 6967 03197 9990 +075 +075 155030 031 037 005 20
162530 1959N 06847W 6965 03199 9990 +071 +071 152029 030 036 007 20
162600 2000N 06849W 6963 03188 0119 +068 +068 152030 030 034 005 03
162630 2001N 06851W 6970 03178 0118 +068 +068 153031 032 033 006 00
162700 2001N 06853W 6964 03203 0128 +070 +070 151030 032 036 010 00
162730 2002N 06855W 6960 03205 0134 +066 +066 136033 039 049 023 00
162800 2002N 06857W 6968 03198 9990 +043 +999 154032 035 042 044 05
162830 2002N 06859W 6958 03207 0169 +042 +042 164039 040 044 025 00
162900 2002N 06901W 6962 03201 0151 +055 +055 161041 043 040 012 00
162930 2002N 06903W 6960 03207 0143 +061 +061 158036 037 038 009 00
163000 2003N 06905W 6963 03206 0146 +057 +057 147036 039 041 011 00
163030 2003N 06907W 6967 03199 0158 +052 +052 156032 033 038 012 00
163100 2003N 06909W 6956 03207 0159 +049 +049 155026 033 038 021 00
163130 2003N 06911W 6969 03202 0141 +065 +065 160025 027 040 017 03
163200 2003N 06913W 6965 03205 0130 +072 +072 164029 031 037 005 03
163230 2004N 06915W 6966 03203 0121 +080 +055 163028 029 037 006 00
$$
;

49 kt SFMR, 43 kt FL

[gatorcane]

latest:

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Rolling in...Further West

Could come close to SFL

H+42

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

This looks like it will get close to South Florida......looks like latest vis loops showing a more WNW movement now in response to the ridge to the north..

[gatorcane]

Quickscat pass this morning shows low pressure near 16.5N-75W. I think the NHC position is a MLC. Another LLC may form but very uncertain we have a tropical cyclone now.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas20.png

I can actually see a broad open swirl southwest of Haiti on visible loops not far from where the QS image indicated. Possibly the remnant LLC. But surface obs indicate a new LLC has formed north of Haiti.

Wxman what movement do you have?

Looks like it is getting a more westerly component now WNW....

[wxman57]

12Z GFS Rolling in...Further West

Could come close to SFL

H+42

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

This looks like it will get close to South Florida......looks like latest vis loops showing a more WNW movement now in response to the ridge to the north..

Pretty strong frontal boundary in its path, though. GFS shoots it NE before it reaches FL.

[Blown Away]

Can someone explain what is causing the GFS, Ukmet, and Nogaps to loop? Does the steering currents break down? Even the Bamm backed off w/ the abrupt NE turn in the Bahamas.

[wxman57]

That 42kt FL wind and 49kt SFMR wind observation is 270nm east of the center, by the way. Let's see if winds decrease from there on to the center.

[CrazyC83]

That 42kt FL wind and 49kt SFMR wind observation is 270nm east of the center. Not exactly a sign of a tropical low.

Subtropical?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Rolling in...Further West

Could come close to SFL

H+42

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

This looks like it will get close to South Florida......looks like latest vis loops showing a more WNW movement now in response to the ridge to the north..

Pretty strong frontal boundary in its path, though. GFS shoots it NE before it reaches FL.

Wxman but there is more uncertainty today...that frontal boundary is the key to the forecast and now models are backing off on quick recurvature unless Noel rapidly deepens which seems unlikely.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[
Pretty strong frontal boundary in its path, though. GFS shoots it NE before it reaches FL.



18z GFS gets it pretty darn close to SoFla and it was initialized with the low to the SE of it's actual position which means Noel might make it further west before the front breaks down the ridge.

[wxman57]

Could be stronger winds farther west, but I doubt it. Let's see what recon finds.

[gatorcane]

[
Pretty strong frontal boundary in its path, though. GFS shoots it NE before it reaches FL.



18z GFS gets it pretty darn close to SoFla and it was initialized with the low to the SE of it's actual position which means Noel might make it further west before the front breaks down the ridge.

Agreed, I wonder if the NHC is purposely leaving South Florida just outside the cone....will that cone shift left at 5pm is the question?

Noel may be weak now but this is going to be a close call and its its too close for comfort for me.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 291645
AF307 0316A NOEL HDOB 09 20071029
163300 2005N 06917W 6965 03199 0123 +079 +052 163030 030 030 003 00
163330 2006N 06919W 6967 03196 0123 +079 +049 165031 031 027 003 00
163400 2007N 06920W 6963 03205 0129 +075 +051 162030 031 027 003 00
163430 2008N 06922W 6964 03202 0130 +072 +052 167027 028 026 004 03
163500 2008N 06924W 6966 03195 0131 +070 +052 172028 029 026 004 00
163530 2008N 06926W 6968 03195 0129 +071 +053 170029 029 026 004 00
163600 2009N 06928W 6964 03202 0128 +072 +050 168030 030 027 004 00
163630 2009N 06930W 6963 03200 0133 +070 +053 162028 029 030 004 00
163700 2009N 06932W 6968 03194 0134 +070 +056 160027 027 030 004 00
163730 2010N 06934W 7072 03073 0129 +078 +061 168028 029 029 005 00
163800 2010N 06936W 7347 02748 0115 +105 +064 168029 030 999 999 03
163830 2011N 06938W 7671 02385 0125 +118 +085 152030 031 999 999 03
163900 2011N 06940W 8143 01888 0136 +136 +116 151030 031 999 999 03
163930 2012N 06943W 8639 01383 0133 +165 +152 153032 034 999 999 03
164000 2012N 06945W 9110 00920 0132 +189 +180 144036 037 999 999 03
164030 2013N 06948W 9395 00650 0118 +208 +200 136034 035 999 999 03
164100 2013N 06950W 9634 00426 0111 +224 +203 138033 034 029 005 03
164130 2013N 06952W 9756 00312 0110 +234 +215 136030 032 028 004 00
164200 2014N 06954W 9855 00220 0106 +240 +216 135032 033 030 003 00
164230 2014N 06956W 9878 00199 0104 +242 +220 134031 033 031 003 00
$$
;

Descending more. 33 kt FL and 31 kt SFMR post-descent.

[Steve H.]

12Z NOGAPS now has Noel staying just north of the spine of Cuba and into SE Florida at 60 hours.

[gatorcane]

Can somebody show me the frontal boundary that should hopefully sharply curve Noel...based on the WV loop she is now moving NW to WNW (overall movement) and there is nothing way out to the NW in the southern CONUS that looks like a front...just ridging off the EC of the US and Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[
Pretty strong frontal boundary in its path, though. GFS shoots it NE before it reaches FL.



18z GFS gets it pretty darn close to SoFla and it was initialized with the low to the SE of it's actual position which means Noel might make it further west before the front breaks down the ridge.

Agreed, I wonder if the NHC is purposely leaving South Florida just outside the cone....will that cone shift left at 5pm is the question?

Noel may be weak now but this is going to be a close call and its its too close for comfort for me.

I think this thing is pinwheeling quickly around the ULL to it's SW and will go WNW under the ridge and at least get pretty close to SoFla. The strength it is when it gets there is uncertain but it still has some time to consolidate.

[Blown Away]

Noel's closest approach to SFL was 76W at 5am and 76.7 at 11am. WPB is @80W, if Noel follows the track it will only be @198 miles E of WPB. TS Watch at least, if Noel follows that track.