Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[drezee]

This is a hurricane! OMG, and it may be stronger than 75 mph. They did not pass through thte NE quad they missed it. The passed almost due of the center. Stronger winds are likely there.

Recon estimated 80 mph


D. 70 kt
E. 101 deg 7 nm
F. 178 deg 079 kt
G. 097 deg 008 nm
H. 992 mb

[deltadog03]

80kt winds showing on radar about 2500ft.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I seen a surface trough yesterday,,,I should of known and had a idea this would. But I was mad the nhc had not upgraded 91L. So I down played it because of that. I did how ever never in a billion years think this would be nearing hurricane strength tonight.

[Andrew92]

Alright, I got what I wanted. That vortex indicates, to me, that Humberto is a hurricane.

First landfalling U.S. hurricane since October 24, 2005. Fortunately, this will be of the minimal variety.

-Andrew92

[CrazyC83]

80kt winds showing on radar about 2500ft.

That would be about 70 kt at the surface?

[deltadog03]

roughly yes...I would expect to see a special statement come out...very soon

[WindRunner]

Eyewall splash . . . 994mb/56kts, on the eastern side of the storm.

UZNT13 KNHC 130500
XXAA 63058 99292 70944 08294 99994 26600 16556 00553 ///// /////
92635 22000 19544 85369 18461 19533 88999 77999
31313 09608 80445
61616 AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2926N09441W 0448 MBL WND 18060 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 18553 994888 WL150 17062 075 =
XXBB 63058 99292 70944 08294 00994 26600 11870 19806 22850 18461
33843 18068
21212 00994 16556 11988 17063 22980 17063 33974 17071 44956 18065
55950 19551 66946 19547 77888 19543 88843 19532
31313 09608 80445
61616 AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2926N09441W 0448 MBL WND 18060 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 18553 994888 WL150 17062 075 =

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If given another 3-4 hours over the ocean at this rate. It would not suprize me if this made landfall as a cat2? We will see.

[CrazyC83]

roughly yes...I would expect to see a special statement come out...very soon

I'd say within the next 10 to 20 minutes there will be a special advisory making Hurricane Humberto official.

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 130500
XXAA 63058 99292 70944 08294 99994 26600 16556 00553 ///// /////
92635 22000 19544 85369 18461 19533 88999 77999
31313 09608 80445
61616 AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2926N09441W 0448 MBL WND 18060 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 18553 994888 WL150 17062 075 =
XXBB 63058 99292 70944 08294 00994 26600 11870 19806 22850 18461
33843 18068
21212 00994 16556 11988 17063 22980 17063 33974 17071 44956 18065
55950 19551 66946 19547 77888 19543 88843 19532
31313 09608 80445
61616 AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2926N09441W 0448 MBL WND 18060 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 18553 994888 WL150 17062 075 =

Dropsonde from the east quad . . . 56kts at surface, but also only 33kts at FL. Splash occured at 448z, which makes me think they missed the radius of max winds in the eyewall when you see that the 044800 minob puts them on the other side of the eye . . .

[Bailey1777]

I agree it is gaining a distinctive Easterly component now but I was talking with WXMAN57 who has alot more resources to choose from and he was showing earlier a N to slightly NNW direction. On a sidebar it looks to be picking up speed.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is 989mb after adjusting for wind on that splash?

[JtSmarts]

If given another 3-4 hours over the ocean at this rate. It would not suprize me if this made landfall as a cat2? We will see.

I think it might top out at around 90mph about Claudette strength. Pressure could fall to around 985-987.

[CrazyC83]

If given another 3-4 hours over the ocean at this rate. It would not suprize me if this made landfall as a cat2? We will see.

I think it might top out at around 90mph about Claudette strength. Pressure could fall to around 985-987.

Depends on how much longer it has before landfall. It probably needs about 5 hours over water to reach Cat 2.

[Andrew92]

If given another 3-4 hours over the ocean at this rate. It would not suprize me if this made landfall as a cat2? We will see.

I think it might top out at around 90mph about Claudette strength. Pressure could fall to around 985-987.

Depends on how much longer it has before landfall. It probably needs about 5 hours over water to reach Cat 2.

Let's see what the next advisory says, but Humberto MIGHT spend 5 more hours over water. That said, I don't expect him to become a C2. I'd be utterly surprised; however, stranger things are known to happen.

-Andrew92

[WindRunner]

No, you can't adjust like that on eyewall drops. The relationships just don't quite work like that (otherwise what would the ~956mb/135kt drops give you for Dean? 943? No, it was in the low 930s).

In this case, the 992mb/4kt splash is what will be used, and 992 is the adjusted value for that one.




EDIT: This is the other thing that makes me suspicious that they missed the high winds . . . the pressure is too close to the eye pressure to actually be in the area of the steepest pressure gradient . . .

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 130507
AF306 0309A HUMBERTO HDOB 11 20070913
045730 2859N 09505W 8429 01576 9990 +165 +999 329015 015 024 000 01
045800 2858N 09506W 8428 01581 9990 +162 +999 331013 015 027 000 01
045830 2857N 09508W 8423 01586 9990 +162 +999 331013 014 018 000 01
045900 2856N 09510W 8428 01582 9990 +160 +999 319011 011 022 000 01
045930 2856N 09511W 8425 01585 9990 +157 +999 304010 011 013 000 01
050000 2855N 09513W 8427 01584 9990 +161 +999 301011 012 016 000 01
050030 2854N 09514W 8426 01585 9990 +165 +999 309013 013 013 000 01
050100 2853N 09516W 8428 01585 9990 +161 +999 316013 013 013 000 01
050130 2852N 09518W 8426 01585 9990 +160 +999 305012 013 004 000 01
050200 2851N 09519W 8428 01583 9990 +160 +999 306011 011 007 000 01
050230 2850N 09521W 8426 01586 9990 +162 +999 310011 011 002 000 01
050300 2850N 09522W 8430 01582 9990 +167 +999 314013 015 011 000 01
050330 2849N 09524W 8428 01586 9990 +165 +999 310014 014 007 000 01
050400 2848N 09525W 8426 01587 9990 +170 +999 308015 016 020 000 01
050430 2847N 09527W 8430 01584 9990 +173 +999 307016 017 001 000 01
050500 2846N 09528W 8426 01589 9990 +170 +999 302016 016 999 999 05
050530 2844N 09528W 8427 01590 9990 +169 +999 297016 016 999 999 05
050600 2844N 09526W 8427 01590 9990 +170 +999 292015 016 000 001 05
050630 2845N 09524W 8428 01587 9990 +175 +999 291014 015 004 000 01
050700 2846N 09523W 8428 01586 9990 +170 +999 286013 014 004 000 01

Heading N and E . . . going back in for a SW-NE pass, probably.

[PTrackerLA]

I can't believe this really is a hurricane (per recon). Is the NHC really going to classify it as such? Don't like the latest ENE jog so much either...

[Jagno]

Okay folks, now you are scaring the crap out of me.

[CrazyC83]

I can't believe this really is a hurricane (per recon). Is the NHC really going to classify it as such? Don't like the latest ENE jog so much either...

They need to do it and throw the Hurricane Warnings from Galveston to Sabine Pass (and a Watch to Holly Beach).