Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

On the loop the LLC doesn't seem to be connected to the trough anymore.

[storms in NC]

it has a well defined circulation. maybe storms meant it looks like it is drifting sw?

True. And it is breaking away from the frountal.

[KWT]

Still looks like the system is getting badly sheared right now but at least it still has a pretty strong LLC with it though how long that can continue like that for I'm not sure given the shear is just blowing any attempts at weak convection away.

[CrazyC83]

Since it still has a closed circulation, wouldn't be called a TD as soon as it has warmed the core up and broken from the front?

[windstorm99]

Naked but still well defined...

[MCorder]

It is starting to come back take a look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

You can see definite rotation, and apparently a slight movement back to the west.
Looking at the SLP, frontal boundary, and lessoning negative vorticity I'd say it has a chance. Will the 1-2 degree difference in sea temp make much of a difference?

MCorder
Kodiak Alaska

[windstorm99]

If you run a loop you can see it dropping to the SW a bit.

[storms in NC]

Since it still has a closed circulation, wouldn't be called a TD as soon as it has warmed the core up and broken from the front?

Have to give them time it just started to break away this morning. But I would think by this afternoon we will have a better 99l to look at.JIMO

When they see the trend they will do a update on their TWO

[JtSmarts]

The little circulation has been a fighter, that's for sure.

[Sanibel]

Like 98L, Atlantic isn't supporting naked spirals.

[weatherwoman]

has anyone heard what derek has had to say today just wondering about his thoughts

[windstorm99]

It lookS to been drifting SW...I just ran another visible loop and its approaching 28N.Thoughts?

Xtrap confirms.

[storms in NC]

If you run a loop you can see it dropping to the SW a bit.

Yes it is going SW now. This afternoon you will see a better 99L. Just looking at the Vloop you can see it is trying hard to get some clouds around it.

[windstorm99]

So far, this system has really baffled all the tropical cyclone models and really doing a horrible job initializing the upper trough.

Ridge on top now might keep it moving south for a while.No model showed this yesterday.

[BigA]

It looks like the farther south it goes, the less shear it will encounter.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[windstorm99]

A little more and it will almost be at my latitude lol...

[shortwave]

It lookS to been drifting SW...I just ran another visible loop and its approaching 28N.Thoughts?

Xtrap confirms.

Still fairly close to what the models show for direction... can see that digging trough shifting to the sw.. as predicted... tracks may shift a bit further west the longer it takes to deepen. like most pro mets have been saying since late last night.. another 24-36 hrs before the upper level envirenment becomes more favorable... definitly would not write this off till after that.

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Still drifting to the NE as far as I can tell.

[KWT]

Interesting to see most of the models started out around 29.5N appears too far north if the intial extrap positon is correct. I wonder whether this will have any impact on the eventual track of the system given its starting from a deeper position it could take slightly longer for the system to pick up a more NW run as the trough will have to dig deeper.

ps, by the way if it looks like its drifting NE its only because thats the way the shear is heading right now and its blowing all the cloud in that direction.

[storms in NC]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Still drifting to the NE as far as I can tell.

I see a SW but no NE