CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[JTD]

From MSNBC:

The sprawling, westward storm was projected to slam into the mainland Wednesday afternoon with renewed force near Laguna Verde, Mexico’s only nuclear power plant. Plant officials said late Tuesday that they were suspending electricity production and sending many workers home.

Of course, a nuclear power plant will have no trouble at all with Dean, as weak as it is, but still interesting.

[tallywx]

Here are some more photos from Majahual...truly epic devastation that only a cat 5 can accomplish:

[tallywx]

To give an example of exactly what Dean did to the forest, this is an example of what the forest behind Majahual (e.g. in that upside-down car picture) used to look like:

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220520
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 42 20070822
051030 2121N 09314W 6965 03104 9984 +098 +089 113080 081 056 005 00
051100 2121N 09317W 6967 03098 9994 +087 +087 110082 083 055 006 00
051130 2121N 09320W 6963 03102 9989 +090 +090 107082 082 054 006 00
051200 2121N 09323W 6964 03101 9986 +093 +088 107083 084 052 005 00
051230 2121N 09326W 6965 03103 9977 +102 +084 105084 086 054 005 00
051300 2121N 09328W 6963 03102 9980 +099 +084 105084 085 055 006 00
051330 2121N 09331W 6967 03100 9970 +108 +075 102082 082 056 005 00
051400 2122N 09334W 6961 03105 9972 +107 +077 101083 083 058 005 00
051430 2122N 09337W 6963 03102 9978 +101 +081 100083 083 057 005 00
051500 2122N 09340W 6965 03102 9980 +101 +083 098084 085 054 006 00
051530 2122N 09343W 6965 03105 9986 +097 +083 095082 083 056 006 00
051600 2122N 09346W 6964 03107 9983 +102 +074 095082 083 056 005 00
051630 2122N 09349W 6963 03109 9978 +105 +072 094083 083 055 005 00
051700 2122N 09352W 6962 03110 9985 +098 +082 094083 085 055 005 00
051730 2122N 09355W 6963 03109 9989 +095 +090 093082 084 053 005 00
051800 2123N 09358W 6964 03109 9985 +101 +095 091082 083 053 004 00
051830 2123N 09401W 6965 03112 9986 +100 +100 090080 080 053 005 00
051900 2123N 09404W 6964 03111 9992 +095 +095 090082 084 054 007 00
051930 2123N 09407W 6965 03109 9986 +100 +098 089080 080 054 006 00
052000 2123N 09410W 6964 03114 9990 +102 +089 086080 082 049 005 00
$$


86 knots flight-level maximum; 58 knots SFMR maximum.

[gilbert88]

Considering the affected localities... the damage looks like something between Emily and Gilbert.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220530
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 43 20070822
052030 2123N 09413W 6965 03118 9990 +104 +082 083077 078 048 004 00
052100 2123N 09416W 6962 03120 9995 +102 +080 082076 078 048 004 00
052130 2123N 09419W 6967 03118 9999 +100 +077 079074 076 047 004 00
052200 2123N 09422W 6960 03124 0006 +096 +080 078073 073 047 004 00
052230 2124N 09425W 6963 03124 0013 +093 +085 078073 073 045 004 00
052300 2124N 09427W 6966 03122 0015 +091 +091 077072 074 046 004 00
052330 2124N 09430W 6965 03126 0016 +091 +091 075070 070 046 004 00
052400 2124N 09433W 6961 03135 0016 +095 +085 073067 069 049 005 00
052430 2124N 09436W 6967 03128 0017 +095 +085 072065 066 047 006 00
052500 2124N 09439W 6963 03136 0027 +088 +088 071067 068 044 005 00
052530 2124N 09441W 6964 03134 0024 +092 +078 064068 068 043 006 00
052600 2124N 09444W 6961 03139 0029 +090 +079 067068 069 043 005 00
052630 2124N 09447W 6965 03136 0034 +085 +085 068064 065 044 004 00
052700 2125N 09450W 6963 03141 0036 +087 +085 067062 063 042 004 00
052730 2125N 09452W 6964 03141 0035 +091 +067 062063 065 040 004 00
052800 2125N 09455W 6962 03143 0033 +095 +056 062064 065 037 004 00
052830 2125N 09458W 6961 03145 0034 +093 +057 064065 066 035 004 00
052900 2125N 09500W 6966 03140 0038 +094 +060 064065 066 032 004 00
052930 2125N 09503W 6963 03145 0040 +090 +073 064062 064 034 005 00
053000 2125N 09506W 6979 03129 0039 +091 +091 067060 061 035 004 00
$$

78 knots flight-level maximum; 48 knots SFMR maximum.

[wxmann_91]

I believe Majahual was slightly south of the landfall point.

The right front quadrant was over no man's land. The strongest fury of Dean was unleashed on swamp, thankfully.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220540
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 44 20070822
053030 2125N 09508W 6959 03146 0037 +090 +090 069057 059 037 005 00
053100 2125N 09511W 6965 03142 0035 +090 +088 068057 058 038 006 00
053130 2125N 09513W 6953 03148 0043 +075 +075 063058 064 041 026 05
053200 2125N 09515W 6968 03134 9990 +069 +999 054056 061 041 034 01
053230 2125N 09518W 6973 03137 0047 +081 +081 064053 053 033 017 03
053300 2124N 09520W 6960 03156 0040 +094 +087 062053 054 999 999 03
053330 2123N 09519W 6964 03149 0042 +092 +078 064055 055 024 005 03
053400 2122N 09518W 6963 03146 0037 +091 +089 066057 058 029 005 00
053430 2121N 09517W 6967 03142 0032 +095 +086 065057 058 028 005 00
053500 2119N 09515W 6964 03142 0034 +090 +090 063055 055 026 007 00
053530 2118N 09514W 6972 03130 0030 +092 +092 062055 056 027 006 00
053600 2117N 09513W 6963 03140 0027 +095 +086 061056 056 026 005 00
053630 2116N 09512W 6968 03132 0026 +095 +078 060056 056 024 005 00
053700 2116N 09512W 6968 03132 0027 +093 +080 060054 056 025 006 00
053730 2116N 09512W 6968 03132 0036 +079 +079 055053 055 028 020 00
053800 2116N 09512W 6968 03132 0040 +077 +077 055053 055 028 020 00
053830 2112N 09507W 6973 03119 0030 +085 +085 055055 056 030 007 00
053900 2110N 09506W 6963 03135 0023 +091 +090 055056 056 027 005 00
053930 2109N 09504W 6965 03131 0020 +092 +092 057056 057 030 004 00
054000 2108N 09503W 6964 03126 0013 +095 +086 056059 061 034 005 00
$$


64 knots flight-level maximum; 41 knots SFMR maximum.

[Chacor]

Night-time visible from earlier:

[senorpepr]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220545
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
100 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...BROAD CENTER OF DEAN MOVING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO
BAHIA ALGODONES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES...
250 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 50 MPH...81 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH...97 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...20.1 N...94.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[Harry Cane]

For me the most astonishing picture is of the house on the beach (with the two soldiers). I mean this is a concrete structure that has been lifted and pushed to the side. Just look at the loo's position....

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220550
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 45 20070822
054030 2107N 09502W 6967 03123 0013 +093 +086 057066 066 035 006 00
054100 2106N 09501W 6967 03123 0036 +073 +073 054055 058 033 022 00
054130 2105N 09500W 6968 03115 0016 +087 +087 058059 060 034 006 00
054200 2104N 09458W 6967 03116 0012 +089 +089 058062 062 039 006 00
054230 2103N 09457W 6963 03116 0003 +093 +093 056061 061 038 006 00
054300 2102N 09456W 6971 03111 0003 +091 +091 056062 063 039 006 00
054330 2100N 09455W 6967 03113 0006 +087 +087 056064 066 039 006 00
054400 2059N 09454W 6965 03110 0005 +086 +086 059069 069 040 006 00
054430 2058N 09453W 6968 03103 9997 +088 +088 061071 073 039 005 00
054500 2057N 09451W 6966 03099 9983 +097 +092 059071 072 039 005 00
054530 2056N 09450W 6963 03101 9973 +100 +086 057071 073 044 005 00
054600 2055N 09449W 6968 03088 9967 +104 +088 056068 069 045 005 00
054630 2054N 09448W 6964 03090 9965 +101 +101 058062 064 045 005 00
054700 2053N 09447W 6961 03097 9957 +104 +104 061059 060 047 006 00
054730 2052N 09446W 6969 03081 9950 +106 +106 062058 062 048 007 00
054800 2051N 09444W 6966 03083 9960 +096 +096 062059 063 048 024 00
054830 2050N 09443W 6963 03083 9970 +086 +086 055060 065 051 017 00
054900 2049N 09442W 6966 03072 9966 +084 +084 058065 068 053 035 03
054930 2047N 09441W 6968 03067 9951 +093 +093 062064 065 054 045 03
055000 2046N 09440W 6962 03071 9946 +089 +089 065060 063 999 999 03
$$


73 knots flight-level maximum; 54 knots SFMR maximum (suspect).

[f5]

that picture looks like Texas around Christmas when the mesquites trees have lost there leaves now imagine what this would of look like if Katrina would of hit N.O head on at that strength

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220600
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 46 20070822
055030 2045N 09439W 6962 03063 9938 +096 +096 062051 054 999 999 03
055100 2044N 09437W 6972 03050 9945 +090 +090 060053 056 999 999 03
055130 2043N 09436W 6963 03058 9941 +088 +088 060058 061 052 045 03
055200 2042N 09435W 6964 03057 9911 +109 +109 060054 055 050 008 00
055230 2041N 09434W 6960 03058 9916 +102 +102 058057 059 052 023 00
055300 2040N 09433W 6968 03046 9903 +109 +109 053050 052 052 009 00
055330 2039N 09431W 6967 03045 9900 +111 +111 057053 055 052 007 00
055400 2037N 09430W 6967 03041 9892 +115 +115 057055 055 052 006 00
055430 2036N 09429W 6963 03043 9887 +119 +104 058054 054 052 005 00
055500 2035N 09428W 6965 03036 9879 +120 +102 056053 053 052 005 00
055530 2034N 09427W 6968 03027 9877 +118 +101 058055 055 049 005 00
055600 2033N 09425W 6964 03031 9876 +116 +102 057055 055 049 004 00
055630 2032N 09424W 6966 03027 9873 +117 +100 057054 055 046 005 00
055700 2031N 09423W 6966 03016 9868 +116 +099 057055 055 043 004 00
055730 2030N 09422W 6966 03017 9864 +115 +109 057055 056 042 005 00
055800 2028N 09421W 6963 03017 9857 +116 +116 055055 056 041 007 00
055830 2027N 09419W 6961 03015 9854 +115 +115 054052 052 041 007 00
055900 2026N 09418W 6967 02997 9849 +115 +115 055051 052 040 007 00
055930 2025N 09417W 6964 03001 9842 +119 +119 056050 050 039 005 00
060000 2024N 09416W 6964 02998 9837 +119 +119 056051 052 040 006 00
$$

61 knots flight-level maximum; 52 knots SFMR maximum.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220611
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 47 20070822
060030 2023N 09414W 6964 02997 9830 +120 +120 054050 050 039 007 00
060100 2022N 09413W 6967 02987 9820 +126 +126 055047 048 040 008 00
060130 2020N 09412W 6965 02986 9812 +128 +128 055047 048 039 008 00
060200 2019N 09411W 6963 02985 9814 +124 +124 052047 047 036 005 00
060230 2018N 09410W 6969 02973 9807 +128 +117 056045 046 038 005 00
060300 2017N 09408W 6967 02971 9797 +130 +112 055045 046 038 005 00
060330 2016N 09407W 6961 02971 9791 +128 +128 054042 043 036 005 00
060400 2014N 09406W 6971 02956 9785 +128 +128 055039 042 033 007 00
060430 2013N 09405W 6963 02959 9785 +124 +124 057031 035 020 005 00
060500 2012N 09403W 6961 02961 9777 +132 +120 058026 027 012 004 00
060530 2011N 09402W 6964 02954 9774 +134 +107 055021 022 010 004 00
060600 2010N 09401W 6968 02951 9772 +135 +106 052017 018 000 004 00
060630 2008N 09359W 6965 02952 9774 +134 +103 053011 013 000 005 00
060700 2007N 09358W 6963 02957 9776 +132 +106 051005 007 000 004 00
060730 2006N 09357W 6967 02956 9779 +131 +114 192003 006 000 004 00
060800 2006N 09357W 6967 02956 9778 +133 +111 213007 011 000 004 00
060830 2004N 09354W 6967 02962 9792 +132 +114 207014 018 000 005 03
060900 2005N 09352W 6964 02960 9778 +136 +111 185020 021 000 004 00
060930 2007N 09351W 6967 02954 9777 +135 +114 177025 027 004 006 00
061000 2008N 09349W 6969 02955 9780 +133 +116 169028 029 012 005 00
$$

50 knots flight-level maximum; 40 knots SFMR maximum; 977.2 mb minimum extrapolated pressure.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220621
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 48 20070822
061030 2010N 09348W 6965 02963 9795 +127 +111 163030 033 025 006 00
061100 2011N 09347W 6970 02958 9793 +125 +125 157034 035 032 007 00
061130 2012N 09345W 6969 02962 9796 +126 +126 147042 043 037 008 00
061200 2014N 09344W 6967 02968 9802 +123 +123 145044 044 043 031 00
061230 2015N 09343W 6967 02973 9827 +107 +107 142047 050 046 048 03
061300 2016N 09342W 6964 02981 9822 +116 +116 140048 049 043 008 00
061330 2018N 09340W 6964 02988 9820 +121 +120 137050 051 042 007 00
061400 2019N 09339W 6965 02990 9818 +127 +114 136051 051 042 005 00
061430 2019N 09339W 6965 02990 9833 +124 +101 137051 052 042 005 00
061500 2022N 09336W 6961 03010 9836 +127 +095 137054 054 042 004 00
061530 2023N 09335W 6964 03005 9843 +126 +095 135055 056 043 003 00
061600 2023N 09335W 6964 03005 9846 +125 +097 135055 056 043 003 00
061630 2026N 09332W 6964 03017 9850 +126 +096 138058 059 040 004 00
061700 2028N 09330W 6965 03020 9856 +123 +098 137059 060 041 004 00
061730 2028N 09330W 6965 03020 9856 +126 +095 138060 060 040 004 00
061800 2028N 09330W 6965 03020 9869 +118 +094 139061 062 040 004 00
061830 2033N 09326W 6964 03026 9879 +116 +098 141063 064 050 005 00
061900 2034N 09324W 6965 03035 9879 +119 +093 142062 063 051 004 00
061930 2034N 09324W 6965 03035 9893 +112 +094 141062 063 057 005 00
062000 2037N 09321W 6964 03039 9893 +112 +096 141062 063 060 003 00
$$

64 knots flight-level maximum; 60 knots SFMR maximum.

[wxmann_91]

Latest microwave imagery shows that Dean has double eyewalls, both open to the N. Guess an ERC was beginning when it was making landfall.

I was obviously very wrong about this not weakening much. Shear started impacting Dean midway through, hastening the destruction of the inner core. Not much of the inner core, if any, left on the north side of the storm. Outflow is also restricted on the N side.

[dwsqos2]

Eye Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 220624
XXAA 72067 99201 70939 08203 99979 28214 08508 00693 ///// /////
92501 24206 11008 85241 21218 13005 70908 13417 13501 88999 77999
31313 09608 80607
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 23
62626 EYE SPL 2011N09396W 0611 MBL WND 10007 AEV 00000 =
XXBB 72068 99201 70939 08203 00979 28214 11913 23605 22850 21218
33710 14820 44697 13016
21212 00979 08508 11850 13005 22697 15001
31313 09608 80607
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 23
62626 EYE SPL 2011N09396W 0611 MBL WND 10007 AEV 00000 =


979 mb; surface winds of 8 knots.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220640
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 50 20070822
063030 2104N 09255W 6965 03106 9995 +090 +086 143080 083 047 050 03
063100 2105N 09254W 6967 03106 9999 +090 +087 141078 079 047 007 00
063130 2106N 09252W 6957 03121 0003 +090 +081 141079 080 047 005 00
063200 2108N 09251W 6958 03128 0013 +088 +073 139078 079 047 005 03
063230 2108N 09251W 6958 03128 0015 +089 +069 140078 079 047 005 03
063300 2111N 09248W 6963 03126 0017 +095 +062 140076 076 046 004 00
063330 2112N 09246W 6965 03127 0010 +103 +058 139075 075 044 004 00
063400 2114N 09245W 6963 03134 0011 +104 +061 140075 075 043 004 00
063430 2116N 09243W 6965 03135 0012 +106 +058 143074 075 041 004 00
063500 2117N 09241W 6963 03137 0009 +108 +056 145073 074 039 005 00
063530 2119N 09240W 6964 03138 0006 +113 +049 146072 073 043 005 00
063600 2120N 09238W 6968 03139 0010 +113 +050 144072 073 044 005 03
063630 2121N 09236W 6745 03414 0015 +101 +040 144071 072 043 004 03
063700 2122N 09234W 6530 03688 0017 +084 +031 139069 070 043 004 00
063730 2122N 09232W 6349 03922 0016 +072 +025 138069 069 044 003 00
063800 2122N 09230W 6187 04140 0019 +063 +021 138067 068 044 003 00
063830 2123N 09229W 5963 04421 0006 +043 +007 132066 068 043 003 03
063900 2123N 09229W 5963 04421 9991 +029 -006 127067 068 999 999 03
063930 2123N 09225W 5448 05162 0231 -006 -045 133070 071 041 004 03
064000 2123N 09224W 5292 05401 0248 -019 -057 136070 071 038 004 03
$$


Plane is ascending. Mission is over.

[dwsqos2]

One last Max Wind Band Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 220642
XXAA 72067 99208 70932 08203 99996 26005 12558 00535 ///// /////
92649 21200 13092 85380 18430 14095 70025 08600 14098 88999 77999
31313 09608 80624
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 25
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2089N09323W 0628 MBL WND 12573 AEV 00000 DLM W
ND 13588 996742 WL150 12565 075 =
XXBB 72068 99208 70932 08203 00996 26005 11961 22801 22859 17609
33850 18430 44837 18856 55736 11420 66697 08200
21212 00996 12558 11991 12568 22982 12565 33975 12071 44939 13082
55926 13092 66911 13586 77892 13593 88885 13584 99873 13577 11866
14090 22850 14095 33697 14098
31313 09608 80624
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 25
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2089N09323W 0628 MBL WND 12573 AEV 00000 DLM W
ND 13588 996742 WL150 12565 075 =

996 mb; surface winds of 58 knots; MBL winds of 73 knots.