CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220050
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 15 20070822
004030 2119N 09045W 4617 06495 0338 -078 -142 114068 069 999 999 03
004100 2118N 09048W 4879 06060 0307 -046 -119 112068 069 999 999 03
004130 2116N 09051W 5168 05599 0272 -021 -073 114067 068 999 999 03
004200 2114N 09054W 5485 05119 0236 +002 -042 117070 073 999 999 03
004230 2113N 09057W 5833 04621 0031 +025 -007 121063 067 999 999 03
004300 2111N 09059W 6199 04126 0040 +052 +012 126060 062 999 999 03
004330 2109N 09102W 6606 03598 0050 +073 +032 133067 068 999 999 03
004400 2108N 09104W 6929 03184 0044 +083 +078 136066 067 022 003 03
004430 2106N 09106W 6978 03113 9990 +083 +999 135064 065 016 005 01
004500 2105N 09108W 6977 03109 9990 +085 +999 135065 065 022 004 01
004530 2104N 09109W 6960 03124 9990 +085 +999 134068 068 024 004 01
004600 2103N 09110W 6961 03119 0010 +087 +079 133068 068 023 004 00
004630 2102N 09111W 6965 03115 0011 +087 +077 133068 069 027 004 00
004700 2100N 09113W 6963 03118 0010 +087 +073 131066 067 028 004 00
004730 2059N 09114W 6969 03108 0001 +094 +072 131068 069 031 005 00
004800 2058N 09115W 6967 03108 9997 +095 +066 132069 069 031 005 00
004830 2057N 09117W 6964 03111 9995 +095 +061 133068 069 030 004 00
004900 2055N 09118W 6962 03108 9991 +095 +066 133067 068 032 004 00
004930 2054N 09119W 6965 03102 9992 +090 +085 134068 070 033 005 00
005000 2053N 09121W 6971 03092 9986 +092 +082 133071 072 035 005 00
$$

[drezee]

567
URNT15 KNHC 220100
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 16 20070822
005030 2052N 09122W 6964 03100 9985 +093 +080 134072 073 035 005 00
005100 2051N 09123W 6969 03093 9980 +096 +078 135074 074 035 005 00
005130 2049N 09125W 6961 03098 9987 +096 +084 134073 073 036 005 00
005200 2048N 09126W 6965 03109 9993 +094 +090 134074 075 035 006 00
005230 2047N 09127W 6960 03113 9996 +090 +090 132075 075 036 005 00
005300 2046N 09128W 6963 03112 9996 +090 +090 131074 075 040 005 00
005330 2045N 09130W 6967 03098 9988 +090 +090 128072 073 040 005 00
005400 2043N 09131W 6964 03102 9983 +094 +094 128072 072 043 005 00
005430 2042N 09132W 6965 03098 9981 +095 +095 128071 072 044 004 00
005500 2041N 09134W 6964 03095 9976 +095 +095 126073 074 045 004 00
005530 2040N 09135W 6966 03090 9971 +099 +093 124074 074 046 005 00
005600 2038N 09137W 6965 03087 9964 +102 +090 127074 076 047 005 00
005630 2037N 09138W 6966 03084 9963 +097 +097 132080 081 046 006 00
005700 2036N 09139W 6963 03088 9965 +093 +093 132081 081 046 007 00
005730 2035N 09140W 6967 03078 9958 +095 +095 131083 083 049 008 00
005800 2033N 09142W 6962 03082 9953 +097 +096 128082 083 048 007 00
005830 2032N 09143W 6965 03073 9948 +099 +099 126079 081 050 007 00
005900 2031N 09144W 6966 03071 9949 +094 +094 124077 078 052 008 00
005930 2030N 09146W 6965 03065 9958 +084 +084 123076 077 053 008 03
010000 2028N 09147W 6964 03067 9935 +100 +100 125074 074 049 007 00
$$

[cpdaman]

i would be surprised for this thing to get over 100mph winds

yes it is in the BOC, but it is recently emerged into an area of increasing easterly shear i mean that shear is streaking westward

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

and while it did maintain a good structure that would have been key if the shear was low, it is not, and this thing IMO is gonna be cat 1 or weak 2. but who knows i am no expert

[PhillyWX]

Cantore was singing the praises of the Mexicans tonight on TWC, saying that they have been very efficient in beginning the clean up process and that they have a tremendous work ethic. Good to hear that things are relatively under control down there and that they are working hard, at least according to one source, to begin fixing things up.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220110
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 17 20070822
010030 2027N 09149W 6966 03059 9934 +098 +098 124074 075 049 005 00
010100 2026N 09150W 6963 03049 9926 +096 +096 126074 075 046 006 00
010130 2025N 09151W 6970 03037 9910 +104 +101 126075 076 048 007 00
010200 2023N 09153W 6960 03048 9905 +103 +099 125075 076 051 007 00
010230 2022N 09154W 6964 03040 9899 +105 +100 126073 074 052 005 00
010300 2021N 09155W 6965 03035 9896 +107 +100 122073 074 050 005 00
010330 2019N 09157W 6963 03035 9885 +114 +091 120072 073 049 005 00
010400 2018N 09158W 6967 03028 9873 +121 +090 118070 071 049 005 00
010430 2017N 09200W 6965 03026 9872 +119 +097 119070 071 048 004 00
010500 2015N 09201W 6966 03017 9870 +116 +101 117061 065 047 005 00
010530 2014N 09202W 6963 03022 9868 +115 +095 118058 059 042 005 00
010600 2013N 09204W 6967 03017 9864 +116 +097 116059 060 041 005 00
010630 2011N 09205W 6964 03013 9858 +121 +093 114060 060 035 004 00
010700 2010N 09206W 6965 03011 9854 +121 +093 114060 061 033 005 00
010730 2008N 09207W 6965 03010 9851 +120 +097 114060 061 030 004 00
010800 2007N 09209W 6961 03010 9846 +120 +097 115059 060 032 004 00
010830 2005N 09210W 6968 02995 9838 +121 +100 116059 060 031 004 00
010900 2004N 09211W 6964 02993 9836 +120 +104 115059 060 033 004 00
010930 2003N 09212W 6961 02994 9825 +123 +104 113058 058 032 005 00
011000 2001N 09213W 6967 02979 9819 +124 +103 114054 055 033 004 00
$$

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220120
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 18 20070822
011030 1959N 09214W 6965 02982 9813 +129 +097 111049 051 032 005 00
011100 1958N 09215W 6963 02981 9810 +124 +104 115046 047 033 004 00
011130 1956N 09216W 6966 02975 9797 +132 +100 114043 044 032 004 00
011200 1955N 09217W 6964 02967 9800 +123 +105 116043 044 033 004 00
011230 1953N 09218W 6959 02970 9795 +122 +113 118038 041 033 004 00
011300 1952N 09219W 6967 02956 9789 +127 +106 122033 036 032 004 00
011330 1950N 09220W 6964 02955 9783 +128 +106 134029 030 030 004 00
011400 1949N 09221W 6964 02950 9777 +127 +106 133030 030 027 004 03
011430 1947N 09222W 6968 02944 9775 +125 +108 135028 030 020 004 00
011500 1946N 09223W 6963 02949 9774 +124 +116 141023 025 012 004 00
011530 1945N 09224W 6967 02940 9769 +128 +110 150018 020 004 003 00
011600 1943N 09226W 6963 02946 9767 +130 +106 167011 013 000 004 03
011630 1942N 09227W 6958 02952 9770 +127 +107 184006 007 000 004 03
011700 1942N 09229W 6969 02937 9770 +125 +112 118000 002 000 004 00
011730 1941N 09231W 6967 02945 9791 +110 +110 356008 014 003 025 03
011800 1940N 09232W 6966 02950 9791 +113 +113 335009 010 009 027 00
011830 1939N 09234W 6965 02952 9791 +117 +117 328014 016 008 006 00
011900 1937N 09235W 6966 02959 9799 +114 +114 323020 022 021 024 00
011930 1936N 09236W 6967 02963 9824 +097 +097 306020 023 028 015 00
012000 1935N 09237W 6964 02966 9811 +113 +113 307024 025 032 052 03
$$

From the last few sets of obs, the maximum fight-level wind was 83 knots; the maximum SFMR wind was 53 knots, and the minimum extrapolated pressure was 976.7 mb.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220130
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 19 20070822
012030 1935N 09237W 6964 02966 9818 +114 +114 305025 026 027 015 00
012100 1932N 09240W 6967 02978 9826 +112 +112 304027 028 023 004 00
012130 1931N 09241W 6963 02987 9831 +112 +108 307026 026 021 005 00
012200 1929N 09242W 6965 02985 9843 +106 +106 306026 026 021 006 00
012230 1928N 09243W 6965 02992 9842 +108 +108 309027 028 023 006 00
012300 1927N 09245W 6965 02994 9847 +109 +109 311031 031 024 004 00
012330 1925N 09246W 6964 02998 9847 +113 +110 307034 034 023 005 00
012400 1924N 09247W 6968 03001 9859 +109 +109 304034 035 024 005 03
012430 1923N 09249W 6961 03010 9861 +108 +108 305034 035 012 004 03
012500 1923N 09250W 6969 02998 9861 +109 +108 304035 036 024 005 03
012530 1922N 09252W 6964 03009 9868 +105 +105 306035 036 027 005 00
012600 1920N 09253W 6964 03012 9870 +107 +105 306037 038 028 005 00
012630 1919N 09254W 6963 03022 9873 +108 +102 306037 037 029 004 00
012700 1918N 09255W 6965 03019 9874 +110 +102 307036 037 029 005 00
012730 1917N 09257W 6965 03023 9875 +114 +098 310036 036 030 005 00
012800 1915N 09258W 6967 03024 9879 +111 +098 312037 038 031 004 00
012830 1914N 09259W 6964 03031 9885 +109 +104 314039 040 031 006 00
012900 1913N 09301W 6960 03038 9888 +109 +107 316040 041 034 008 00
012930 1912N 09302W 6962 03035 9902 +099 +099 321041 042 040 028 03
013000 1910N 09303W 6965 03038 9922 +088 +088 324039 041 046 016 03
$$

[dwsqos2]

Eye Drop...

000
UZNT13 KNHC 220127
XXAA 72017 99197 70925 04692 99979 27025 32501 00692 ///// /////
92498 23617 36001 85236 20218 33003 70898 13419 05502 88999 77999
31313 09608 80117
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 1970N09249W 0121 MBL WND 03001 AEV 00000 DLM WND 33
002 979717 WL150 34001 075 =
XXBB 72018 99197 70925 04692 00979 27025 11850 20218 22696 12817
21212 00979 32501 11850 33003 22696 06002
31313 09608 80117
61616 AF306 1604A DEAN OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 1970N09249W 0121 MBL WND 03001 AEV 00000 DLM WND 33
002 979717 WL150 34001 075 =

979 mb; surface winds of 1 knot.

[cycloneye]

Cantore was singing the praises of the Mexicans tonight on TWC, saying that they have been very efficient in beginning the clean up process and that they have a tremendous work ethic. Good to hear that things are relatively under control down there and that they are working hard, at least according to one source, to begin fixing things up.

That is what I was picking up in some radio stations from Yucatan.They were well prepared with plenty of time and evacuated almost all the residents of Chetumal and Mayas.That explains the good news so far of no deaths.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220141
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 20 20070822
013030 1909N 09305W 6969 03038 9990 +078 +999 326048 050 046 017 01
013100 1909N 09305W 6969 03038 9990 +077 +999 324046 049 043 016 05
013130 1906N 09307W 6965 03050 9940 +083 +083 322050 051 046 015 03
013200 1905N 09309W 6969 03042 9990 +072 +999 325052 054 050 026 01
013230 1904N 09310W 6968 03051 9990 +069 +999 322056 058 059 021 01
013300 1902N 09311W 6960 03064 9990 +075 +999 320054 058 053 020 01
013330 1901N 09313W 6965 03067 9990 +076 +999 312053 057 052 020 01
013400 1900N 09314W 6968 03067 9957 +088 +088 310046 047 050 018 03
013430 1859N 09315W 6967 03071 9957 +090 +090 308047 047 045 011 03
013500 1857N 09316W 6965 03076 9963 +089 +089 306043 047 044 008 00
013530 1856N 09318W 6965 03074 9955 +097 +097 307042 044 042 006 00
013600 1855N 09319W 6964 03081 9952 +100 +100 307041 042 041 005 00
013630 1854N 09320W 6964 03086 9953 +103 +098 306043 043 042 005 00
013700 1853N 09321W 6964 03087 9956 +101 +100 306044 044 041 005 00
013730 1851N 09323W 6963 03089 9958 +101 +097 308042 043 039 005 00
013800 1850N 09324W 6965 03089 9965 +099 +099 314040 042 038 006 00
013830 1849N 09325W 6959 03097 9993 +078 +078 319046 048 036 010 00
013900 1848N 09327W 6962 03095 9996 +075 +075 314043 047 037 010 00
013930 1846N 09328W 6975 03079 9980 +089 +089 315041 042 037 007 00
014000 1845N 09329W 6964 03091 9978 +090 +090 314040 041 040 008 00
$$

58 knots flight-level maximum; 59 knots SFMR maximum.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220151
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 21 20070822
014030 1844N 09331W 6962 03097 9994 +078 +078 306042 044 041 032 03
014100 1842N 09332W 6961 03100 9990 +069 +999 312051 052 046 018 05
014130 1841N 09333W 6959 03100 9990 +069 +999 302049 052 047 016 01
014200 1840N 09334W 6960 03099 9990 +066 +999 303053 057 048 019 01
014230 1839N 09336W 6972 03088 9990 +066 +999 296053 056 048 022 01
014300 1838N 09337W 6957 03104 9990 +062 +999 295054 057 047 020 01
014330 1837N 09338W 6967 03091 9990 +064 +999 292048 050 043 021 01
014400 1835N 09339W 6958 03108 9990 +061 +999 293051 055 044 017 01
014430 1834N 09340W 6984 03082 9990 +057 +999 292044 051 040 019 01
014500 1833N 09341W 6955 03114 0032 +060 +060 286042 043 039 016 00
014530 1832N 09343W 6959 03115 9990 +060 +999 283044 050 035 021 01
014600 1831N 09344W 6984 03077 0022 +067 +067 290039 041 036 010 03
014630 1830N 09345W 6960 03109 0017 +072 +072 293041 041 036 009 00
014700 1828N 09346W 6963 03110 0024 +070 +070 291045 046 035 008 00
014730 1827N 09347W 6965 03110 0017 +077 +077 293043 045 034 008 03
014800 1825N 09348W 6969 03108 0014 +082 +082 293042 043 999 999 03
014830 1824N 09346W 6963 03116 0012 +084 +084 288043 044 036 007 03
014900 1823N 09344W 6965 03112 0018 +079 +079 283042 042 035 008 00
014930 1822N 09342W 6963 03115 0025 +074 +074 280042 042 036 007 03
015000 1822N 09339W 6965 03111 0015 +080 +080 278042 043 094 019 00
$$




VDM...


000
URNT12 KNHC 220138
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 22/01:17:00Z
B. 19 deg 42 min N
092 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2902 m
D. 53 kt
E. 042 deg 63 nm
F. 132 deg 084 kt
G. 043 deg 070 nm
H. 979 mb
I. 10 C/ 3052 m
J. 13 C/ 3048 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1604A DEAN OB 08
MAX FL WIND 84 KT NE QUAD 00:57:30 Z

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220200
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 22 20070822
015030 1822N 09337W 6966 03110 0016 +079 +079 278043 043 100 016 03
015100 1822N 09335W 6966 03109 0008 +084 +084 279041 042 041 007 03
015130 1823N 09333W 6966 03108 0003 +086 +086 277041 041 999 999 03
015200 1823N 09330W 6963 03110 0004 +084 +084 275042 042 999 999 03
015230 1823N 09328W 6964 03106 9994 +092 +092 270039 040 999 999 03
015300 1823N 09326W 6966 03105 9986 +096 +096 271038 039 999 999 03
015330 1823N 09324W 6962 03109 9985 +097 +097 271040 041 999 999 03
015400 1823N 09321W 6966 03104 9993 +092 +092 270043 044 999 999 03
015430 1823N 09319W 6965 03105 9983 +099 +099 270044 045 999 999 03
015500 1823N 09317W 6964 03105 9994 +090 +090 266048 050 999 999 03
015530 1823N 09315W 6969 03098 9997 +088 +088 262049 051 999 999 03
015600 1823N 09312W 6967 03100 0002 +083 +083 260051 051 999 999 03
015630 1823N 09310W 6966 03102 9998 +085 +085 259051 052 071 000 03
015700 1823N 09308W 6963 03106 0005 +080 +080 258053 054 073 002 03
015730 1823N 09305W 6967 03100 0007 +078 +078 256054 054 085 002 03
015800 1823N 09303W 6964 03102 0001 +083 +083 253052 053 999 999 03
015830 1823N 09301W 6963 03102 9994 +085 +085 252049 050 999 999 03
015900 1823N 09258W 6966 03098 9991 +087 +087 253048 049 999 999 03
015930 1823N 09256W 6963 03100 0002 +079 +079 249048 048 999 999 03
020000 1823N 09254W 6966 03098 9995 +085 +085 247047 047 999 999 03
$$

[Sanibel]

Better shape with red IR returning.

[wxman57]

Derek,

What do you figure the conversion factor is for an 84kt FL wind in a hurricane without a central core? NHC had been using .85 (71 kts at sfc) but that can't hold true without deep convection around the core, right? Any dropsonde or SFMR data reported from recon? With an eye as big as Dean's it'll be hard for it to intensify much in the 12 hours or less before landfall.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220210
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 23 20070822
020030 1823N 09251W 6964 03099 9989 +087 +087 246047 047 999 999 03
020100 1823N 09249W 6964 03099 9987 +091 +091 246046 047 999 999 03
020130 1823N 09247W 6965 03102 9978 +099 +099 247047 047 999 999 03
020200 1823N 09245W 6965 03102 9986 +094 +094 246048 048 999 999 03
020230 1823N 09242W 6965 03099 9992 +088 +088 243046 048 999 999 03
020300 1824N 09240W 6967 03099 9995 +087 +087 237044 045 999 999 03
020330 1824N 09238W 6963 03105 9995 +089 +089 236044 045 999 999 03
020400 1824N 09236W 6967 03100 9994 +089 +089 233047 047 999 999 03
020430 1824N 09234W 6965 03104 0001 +085 +085 232047 048 999 999 03
020500 1824N 09231W 6966 03104 0002 +085 +085 232048 049 999 999 03
020530 1824N 09229W 6965 03105 0000 +086 +086 232048 048 999 999 03
020600 1824N 09227W 6967 03105 0000 +087 +087 230048 048 999 999 03
020630 1824N 09225W 6965 03108 0004 +085 +085 230048 049 999 999 03
020700 1824N 09223W 6963 03111 0004 +086 +086 235050 051 999 999 03
020730 1824N 09220W 6967 03108 0010 +084 +084 236053 054 999 999 03
020800 1824N 09218W 6965 03112 0019 +078 +078 234053 053 999 999 03
020830 1824N 09216W 6964 03114 0029 +073 +073 232051 052 999 999 03
020900 1824N 09214W 6967 03115 0027 +076 +076 230051 052 999 999 03
020930 1824N 09211W 6963 03117 0024 +078 +078 227053 055 999 999 03
021000 1824N 09209W 6967 03115 0019 +081 +081 225052 052 999 999 03
$$

[Derek Ortt]

Highest SFMR wind I have seen tonight is 59KT, though it did not exactly match with the sondes last night.

I'd say a factor of .75-.8 should be used for this type of storm... a little higher than Isabel since there is a little more deep convection. 65-70KT seems like a good bet for the intensity

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220220
AF306 1604A DEAN HDOB 24 20070822
021030 1824N 09207W 6964 03119 0021 +080 +080 221056 058 999 999 03
021100 1824N 09205W 6966 03119 0020 +084 +084 219056 056 999 999 03
021130 1824N 09203W 6964 03122 0022 +083 +083 218056 056 999 999 03
021200 1824N 09200W 6964 03125 0032 +077 +077 217057 057 999 999 03
021230 1824N 09158W 6967 03122 0037 +076 +076 216057 059 999 999 03
021300 1824N 09158W 6967 03122 0032 +079 +079 215055 057 999 999 03
021330 1824N 09154W 6964 03127 0032 +080 +080 215054 054 999 999 03
021400 1824N 09152W 6964 03130 0035 +080 +080 215056 057 999 999 03
021430 1824N 09150W 6964 03132 0029 +086 +086 212057 058 999 999 03
021500 1824N 09148W 6967 03131 0031 +087 +084 209054 056 999 999 03
021530 1824N 09146W 6965 03134 0037 +084 +080 208053 054 999 999 03
021600 1824N 09144W 6965 03137 0044 +080 +080 205053 054 999 999 03
021630 1824N 09142W 6965 03138 0039 +084 +084 203050 051 999 999 03
021700 1824N 09139W 6967 03136 0040 +084 +084 200048 050 999 999 03
021730 1825N 09138W 6959 03144 0041 +082 +082 200048 049 999 999 03
021800 1827N 09137W 6965 03136 0039 +082 +082 198047 047 999 999 03
021830 1828N 09138W 6964 03134 0030 +086 +086 201048 048 029 002 03
021900 1829N 09140W 6964 03127 0022 +088 +083 203050 050 024 004 00
021930 1830N 09141W 6966 03126 0027 +083 +083 203052 052 027 006 00
022000 1832N 09143W 6964 03127 0034 +080 +080 202055 056 030 008 00
$$

[Brent]

Don't think this has much time to do anything... it looks ugly and the eye looks huge and ragged.

[Epsilon_Fan]

if that clearing area is an eye re-forming, that's one big eye in proportion to the storm!

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC WED AUG 22 2007

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM PROGRESO SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. A
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO BAHIA
ALGODONES.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 93.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 75SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 93.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 92.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.7N 95.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.4N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 93.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DEAN WITH 80 MPH WINDS...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM PROGRESO SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. A
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM SOUTH OF CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO TAMPICO. PREPARATIONS IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF TAMPICO TO BAHIA
ALGODONES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES...
345 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 295 MILES...475
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF CENTRAL COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT CAYO
ARCAS RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS GUSTS TO 72 MPH...116 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...19.9 N...93.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

DEAN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A LARGE RAGGED EYE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED DEAN AND MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 979 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THE SFMR HAS ONLY MEASURED 59 KNOTS SO FAR. SINCE DEEP
CONVECTION IS RETURNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70
KNOTS...WHICH IS A BLEND OF BOTH MEASUREMENTS AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS.
DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL BUT IS RUNNING OUT
OF TIME TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD SPREAD
NORTHWARD.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE.

THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT CAYO ARCAS RECENTLY
MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 KNOTS...GUSTS TO 63 KNOTS AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986.3 MB. NOAA BUOY 42055 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KNOTS AND A GUST TO
43 KNOTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 19.9N 93.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 20.7N 95.6W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.4N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 102.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA