Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[superfly]

wow, cat 1 winds per recon, this thing bombed, good thing it doesn't have more time over water.

[WindRunner]

My current estimate: 65-70 kt, 988mb = Hurricane Humberto

Special advisory around 1:30 am?

Possibly . . . but I doubt it. Maybe the 2am will be superceded with a full package, but since the possibility was mentioned at 11pm, I doubt it . . .

[Andrew92]

I'd like to wait for a vortex message before actually calling it a hurricane, but I personally think it might be one. If it's not, it's VERY close.

-Andrew92

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's probably a minimal hurricane. No big surprises at all...it needs to get on land, though...I don't like them in the water this close to shore and hardly moving.

[JessRomero]

I am in the Jefferson county area in port neches which is 5 minutes from Port Arthur we are now STARTING to get heavy showers on and off little bit of wind but not much I am hoping it stays this way lol but I don't think it will happen. I just hope no tornado's! How likely do tornado's spawn off of a TS?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With the surface data very much so we got a hurricane. 79 knots at flight level at 80 percent ruduce is the only way they could hold it. I think it would need about 80-81 percent. But the stronger winds are in fact at the surface, so a I think reduction is more like .9 to .95 easly. Welcome hurricane Humberto.

[WindRunner]

044330 2915N 09417W 8421 01524 9990 +142 +999 168066 067 048 025 01
044400 2915N 09419W 8423 01507 9990 +162 +999 172068 071 052 027 01
044430 2914N 09420W 8430 01481 9990 +168 +999 176077 079 061 013 01
044500 2914N 09422W 8430 01462 9990 +169 +999 187071 077 070 000 01
044530 2914N 09423W 8429 01447 9990 +178 +999 193053 063 062 006 05
044600 2914N 09425W 8436 01431 9990 +179 +999 192032 036 047 004 01
044630 2914N 09427W 8422 01441 9990 +176 +999 200021 024 031 002 05
044700 2915N 09429W 8435 01425 9990 +184 +999 208014 016 014 001 05

Obviously the good data is in here . . . my only suspicion is that the 70kt SFMR came in an area where SFMR saw no precip? That flags something in my mind

That's possible, but it is surely still 65 kt at least anyway...

Yeah, even FL winds support 63-64kts, and considering this wasn't even near the deepest convection, 65kts should be an easy one.

I'd like to see a dropsonde first, though. That will (obviously) make the decision easier . . .

[Brent]

This is kind of funny, the storm sneaks up on us and may be the first U.S. hurricane landfall in almost 23 months.

[Derek Ortt]

yep... that is a hurricane, no doubt about it

[WindRunner]

Eye drop . . . 992mb/4kts

UZNT13 KNHC 130456
XXAA 63058 99293 70945 08294 99992 27230 26504 00573 ///// /////
92616 24037 31507 85355 21656 02507 88999 77999
31313 09608 80447
61616 AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2926N09451W 0449 MBL WND 28505 AEV 00000 DLM WND 31
504 992879 WL150 27504 075 =
XXBB 63058 99293 70945 08294 00992 27230 11850 21656 22846 21058
33843 20470
21212 00992 26504 11879 01507 22843 02508
31313 09608 80447
61616 AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2926N09451W 0449 MBL WND 28505 AEV 00000 DLM WND 31
504 992879 WL150 27504 075 =

[Sean in New Orleans]

I am in the Jefferson county area in port neches which is 5 minutes from Port Arthur we are now STARTING to get heavy showers on and off little bit of wind but not much I am hoping it stays this way lol but I don't think it will happen. I just hope no tornado's! How likely do tornado's spawn off of a TS?

Well, I'd make some minimal preparations for going into the dark....if the center comes close to you then you'll lose power.

[JtSmarts]

Who really thought this was possible yesterday? WOW.

[Steve]

It's all good Bailey. It was looking like it was making that run for the coast, but then the center convection refired with that hump to the NE. I don't know what height the radars are set at so I'm not sure which illusions are out there . At least based on Lake Charles and Houston/Galveston radar, it looks like Jefferson County (maybe Chambers???) sees the landfall maybe in a few (3-5ish?) hours. What do you think?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Steve

[WindRunner]

Per Houston radar, it kind of looks like the S quad is trying to get its eyewall back together . . .

[drezee]

This is a hurricane! OMG, and it may be stronger than 75 mph. They did not pass through thte NE quad they missed it. The passed almost due of the center. Stronger winds are likely there.

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 130456
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 13/04:47:30Z
B. 29 deg 15 min N
094 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1359 m
D. 70 kt
E. 101 deg 7 nm
F. 178 deg 079 kt
G. 097 deg 008 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 13 C/ 1531 m
J. 21 C/ 1528 m
K. 0 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0309A HUMBERTO OB 05
MAX FL WIND 79 KT E QUAD 04:44:40 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
DEW POINT INOP

Very healthy temp gradient . . .

[CrazyC83]

I am in the Jefferson county area in port neches which is 5 minutes from Port Arthur we are now STARTING to get heavy showers on and off little bit of wind but not much I am hoping it stays this way lol but I don't think it will happen. I just hope no tornado's! How likely do tornado's spawn off of a TS?

Well, I'd make some minimal preparations for going into the dark....if the center comes close to you then you'll lose power.

Possibly for several days depending on the number of people affected.

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 130457
AF306 0309A HUMBERTO HDOB 10 20070913
044730 2916N 09430W 8420 01438 9990 +207 +999 045001 008 014 000 05
044800 2916N 09432W 8434 01429 9990 +201 +999 040020 025 015 002 05
044830 2915N 09434W 8421 01442 9990 +193 +999 030034 037 042 010 05
044900 2914N 09436W 8433 01447 9990 +214 +999 015042 046 043 009 05
044930 2913N 09438W 8427 01479 9990 +204 +999 003040 041 049 007 01
045000 2913N 09439W 8425 01495 9990 +188 +999 353042 043 045 000 01
045030 2912N 09441W 8426 01506 9990 +181 +999 344044 047 053 000 01
045100 2911N 09443W 8425 01518 9990 +177 +999 343044 046 045 001 01
045130 2910N 09445W 8435 01518 9990 +174 +999 352043 046 043 001 01
045200 2909N 09446W 8427 01538 9990 +170 +999 353040 041 039 002 01
045230 2908N 09448W 8422 01550 9990 +166 +999 357041 043 036 001 01
045300 2907N 09450W 8436 01544 9990 +167 +999 357035 036 035 001 01
045330 2906N 09452W 8418 01569 9990 +168 +999 354034 035 033 002 01
045400 2905N 09453W 8429 01559 9990 +167 +999 352031 032 030 001 01
045430 2904N 09455W 8425 01569 9990 +175 +999 348025 027 028 001 01
045500 2903N 09457W 8426 01571 9990 +179 +999 351024 025 027 000 01
045530 2902N 09458W 8430 01570 9990 +176 +999 350022 025 029 000 01
045600 2902N 09500W 8427 01574 9990 +173 +999 342019 019 033 000 01
045630 2901N 09502W 8428 01574 9990 +166 +999 344018 018 024 000 01
045700 2900N 09503W 8426 01578 9990 +168 +999 336016 017 024 000 01

53kts per SFMR, even on the skimpy western side . . .

[BigA]

Wow, I sure wouldnt have guessed last night at this time with the swirl utterly devoid of convection that a hurricane would exist before I went to bed the next day.

Radar presentation is also improving. Center is now wrapped up in green and yellow with red to the north

[CrazyC83]

65-70 kt, 992mb it appears.

I'd expect Hurricane Warnings put up from Galveston to Cameron on the next advisory (special around 12:30 am CDT I am thinking).