Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[ConvergenceZone]

this is about to be the biggest bust of an invest this season. Even a couple of the mets were calling it a hurricane for sure and all the models were picking up on it. Even if it did develop into a depression or storm, it probably wouldn't be until later tomorrow and since it suppose to be nearing the coast of the carolina's by this weekend, no chance for development.....Yep, on to the next future invest off the africa coast. This needs to be buried!

[BensonTCwatcher]

The upper level low that really is still there and has not backed off as predicted and continues to rip up 99L...Looks more like a cold front then anything tropical.

....as predicted YET. It wasn't supposed to be out of there until tomorrow. Also you can see the axis tilting and the S end thinning on the ULL. signs its wekening. The next 12 hours will be critical. The circ will get eroded if the ULL backs off too slow. The LLC is what to watch. if it elongates it's outta here.

[KWT]

don't kill it off too quickly convergencezone, as benson has just said as long a sit still has the LLC present with it there is always the risk that once shear eases off the system will re-devlop. However I think the dry air to the west is also causing problems right now as there is no real attempts at convection around the center. Still best not write this off too soon.

[angelwing]

It's not Friday yet, I am keeping an eye on this.

[storms in NC]

Why are most of you killing this off? It wasn't to do any thing till late Thurseday or Friday any ways. Just wait and see in 24 -36 hours then call it.

[windstorm99]

Jeff Masters...9/06/07

U.S. East coast watches tropical disturbance 99L
An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary has grown less organized over the past 24 hours, thanks to an increase in wind shear. Strong upper level winds from the west are creating about 20-25 knots of wind shear over 99L, and satellite loops of 99L show a much less organized circulation, with only a few thunderstorms far removed from the center. The disturbance is interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure, and this trough is creating a long line of thunderstorms from southwest to northeast that passes just east of the center of 99L's circulation.

Wind shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots on Friday, which may allow some slow development. I wouldn't be surprised to see 99L become a tropical storm on Saturday. Most of the computer models bring 99L to the coast of North Carolina on Sunday. This does not give it much time to develop, and it is unlikely 99L would be able to intensify into a hurricane. The storm may not develop into a tropical cyclone at all, but even as a non-tropical storm, residents of the Carolinas can expect heavy rain and high winds on Sunday from this system. The storm is then expected to track northward and then northeastward along the coast, bringing heavy rains to the mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Monday and Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L at 2pm EDT today, but NHC may cancel this flight unless 99L shows some significant improvement in organization.

[storms in NC]

This is where it might be breaking away from the frontal boundary.

[Chacor]

Recon for today and tomorrow cancelled. However, POD still has two flights (one tomorrow and one Saturday) scheduled on this.

[Bane]

not surprising. it doesn't warrant recon today.

[Zardoz]

...This Invest and others prove that there is some "gut feeling" in predicting what will happen...

The gut feeling you got from the sat views of 99L was that it was being sheared to death and pulled off far to the ENE into oblivion. It never "looked" right, and now it looks worse than ever. With all due respect, it's been really hard to reconcile the model tracks with what we were visually observing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB yesterday called for 970 mb at landfall.


I seriously, seriously, doubt that.

[chris_fit]

Just curious if Mr. Ortt still thinks things are still going "exactly like they are supposed too" with this system?

[Bane]

JB yesterday called for 970 mb at landfall.


I seriously, seriously, doubt that.

if it ever gets it's act together, anything is possible.

[storms in NC]

It is starting to come back take a look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[chris_fit]

It is starting to come back take a look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

What exactly am I looking for there? I don't see any better organization anywhere on that loop.

[Bane]

it has a well defined circulation. maybe storms meant it looks like it is drifting sw?

[windstorm99]

Its been dropping to the south a bit now at 28.5N if iam correct.

[Bane]

looks like the eastward movement has ceased, just as models predicted.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at QuikSCAT, it has drifted eastward. It still has a closed circulation at about 29.2°N 69.0°W. Highest uncontaminated wind barbs are 25 kt.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

[CrazyC83]

Is there any way to tell what the core temperature of the system is without sending Recon?