CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Texashawk]

For anybody interested, here's a little info about the city that's about to get blasted... (courtesy WikiPedia)


Chetumal (coordinates: 18°30′N, 88°20′W) is a city on the east coast of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico. It is the capital of the state of Quintana Roo and the municipal seat of the Municipality of Othón P. Blanco. In 2005 it had a population of 136,825 people.

The city is situated on the western side of Chetumal Bay, near the mouth of the Río Hondo. Chetumal is an important port for the region and operates as Mexico's main trading gateway with the neighboring country of Belize. Goods are transported via a road connecting Chetumal with Belize City to the south, and also via coastal merchant ships.


History
In Pre-Columbian times, a city called Chactemal (sometimes rendered as "Chetumal" in early European sources) was the capital of a Maya state of the same name that roughly controlled the southern quarter of modern Quintana Roo and the northeast portion of Belize. This original Chetumal is now believed to have been on the other side of the Río Hondo, in modern Belize, not at the site of modern Chetumal.

During the Spanish conquest of Yucatán, the Maya state of Chetumal fought off several Spanish expeditions before finally being subjugated in the late 16th century.

The 1840s revolt of the indigenous Maya peoples against Mexican rule, known as the Caste War of Yucatán, drove all the Hispanic people from this region; many settled in British Honduras (modern Belize).

The current site of Chetumal was established as a Mexican port town in 1898, originally under the name Payo Obispo. The name was officially changed to Chetumal in 1936.

Two hurricanes in the 1940s leveled the entire town; Chetumal was devastated a third time in 1955 by Hurricane Janet. After this, the town was rebuilt with more solid construction, with concrete blocks replacing wood as the usual material.

The population of Chetumal was small (about 5,000 in 1950) until the construction of highways linking it to the rest of Mexico in the 1960s and 1970s; the city then boomed with substantial migration from other parts of Mexico.

Hurricane Dean, a Category 5 hurricane, was expected to make landfall near Chetumal on August 21, 2007.

[gotoman38]

Great job guys - that's one for the history books!

[Chacor]

031
WTNT34 KNHC 210857
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...

AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 330 AM CDT. THIS
LOCATION IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
906 MB...26.75 INCHES...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...18.7 N...87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[secretforecaster]

I am afraid to go to bed in fear of missing something. This is truly remarkable!

[Coredesat]

[Beam]

165. It actually.. GOT STRONGER over land. I cannot wrap my mind around that. What the hell is this thing?

[southerngale]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 210857
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...

AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESO
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
EYE OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR COSTA MAYA OR MAJAHUAL AROUND 330 AM CDT. THIS
LOCATION IS ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL
MEXICO

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
JUST INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES... 55 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
906 MB...26.75 INCHES...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...18.7 N...87.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[aerojad]

5am out.

165mph / 906mb at landfall. Wow. Just wow. I think that wind may be a bit conservative and might be raised in post-analysis.

[Typhoon_Willie]

The wind gusts must be arpund 210 or so...WOW what a storm!!!

[southerngale]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 21, 2007


Dean made landfall on the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near
the cruise ship port of costa maya around 0830 UTC...and the eye is
now just inland. Observations from an Air Force hurricane hunter
plane indicate that the hurricane was intensifying right up to
landfall. A peak flight-level wind of 165 kt was measured just
north of the eye. Maximum surface winds from the SFMR were 124
kt...but it is highly likely that the maximum surface wind speed
was not reported by the SFMR instrument. A GPS dropsonde in the
northern eyewall measured a wind speed of 178 kt averaged over the
lowest 150 meters of the sounding. Based on the dropsonde and the
flight-level winds...the intensity is set at 145 kt. A dropsonde
in the eye measured a central pressure of 906 mb just prior to
landfall. Some historic notes are in order here. The 906 mb
central pressure is the ninth lowest on record for an Atlantic
Basin hurricane...and the third lowest at landfall behind the 1935
Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys and hurricane Gilbert of
1988 in Cancun Mexico. Dean is also the first category five
hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic Basin since Andrew of
1992.


Dean will weaken as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula and
the amount of weakening will depend on how long the center remains
over land. Our current thinking is that the cyclone will still be
a borderline Cat 1/2 hurricane when it emerges over the Bay of
Campeche...but there is considerable uncertainty in this forecast.
Assuming that the inner core is not too disrupted by its
interaction with land...Dean should regain major hurricane status
before its final landfall in Mainland Mexico.

Initial motion is estimated to be 285/17. Deep layer high pressure
near the northern Gulf Coast should steer the hurricane on a
west-northwestward to westward heading for the next couple of days.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one.

The Hurricane Warning is extended westward along the Bay of Campeche
coastline of Mexico.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 21/0900z 18.7n 87.8w 145 kt
12hr VT 21/1800z 19.1n 90.4w 85 kt...inland
24hr VT 22/0600z 19.6n 93.9w 95 kt...over Bay of Campeche
36hr VT 22/1800z 20.1n 96.8w 105 kt...inland
48hr VT 23/0600z 20.5n 100.0w 25 kt...inland...dissipating
72hr VT 24/0600z...dissipated


$$
forecaster Pasch/Brown

[Normandy]

165. It actually.. GOT STRONGER over land. I cannot wrap my mind around that. What the hell is this thing?

What is this thing?
Something that you might never see again in your lifetime.

[aerojad]

165. It actually.. GOT STRONGER over land. I cannot wrap my mind around that. What the hell is this thing?

If it -started- to weaken by the time the 5am was composed, it might have peaked at 170 - 175mph.

[WeatherNLU]

Impressive is all I can say. I just visited that area in February and went to some the ruins. Let's just say that the buildings in those areas have no chance against Dean. I can only pray for anyone who is around there. The good news is that I remember being told that very few people actually live in that area, and that when there aren't cruise ships or tourists around that a lot of those places are ghost towns. Chetumal is going to get it bad, god help them......maybe the eye will pass over and give them a break. Better than the right front. According to the NHC 4AM it made landfall at Costa Maya, which is where our shipped docked when I went in February. Here's what it used to look like and odds are it will never look like this again.

[Hockey007]

To quote the 4am discussion
"GPS DROPSONDE IN THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE
LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING."

[gilbert88]

Who knows? It's just the first hurricane of the season.

I'm still more worried about the second landfall. Q. Roo usually does fine with hurricanes because it's not densely populated and the evacuations were finished on time.

[Chacor]

SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC
BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF
1992.

[Normandy]

The wind gusts must be arpund 210 or so...WOW what a storm!!!

Oh buddy, I'd bet they are higher.
This storm is convectively INTENSE, and I mean REALLY intense....cold cold cloudtops around the eye are bring FL winds down to the surface violently.

For instance, the southern eyewall (which Chetalum is about to experience) prolly has sustained 110-120kt winds with vioolents bursts and gusts approaching 150-160 kt gusts. Hurricane Andrew, a similar case study, produced extreme gusts of 140 kts at the NHC, far outside the eyewall.

[aerojad]

A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST NORTH OF THE EYE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124 KT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT. A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF 1992.

Wow. WowWowWowWow.

We're watching a 1935 make landfall. A Gilbert. A stronger-than-Andrew. Wow.

[Normandy]

To quote the 4am discussion
"GPS DROPSONDE IN THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE
LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING."

Folks.....thats nearly 200 mph. WOW.

[Texashawk]

SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE. THE 906 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC
BASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935
LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF
1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO. DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF
1992.

Seems like we've been getting a lot of these 'historic notes' in the last several years...