Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[ronjon]

What a mess. I can't tell where the LLC is anymore. I peeked at the VIS SAT and I see CC turning off the north coast of Haiti under the deep convection - I also see more broad CC turning to the west of Haiti displaced from the north coast one. If I didn't know any better, I would say the storm has decoupled with the MLC to the north and the LLC to the west. The GFS has shown this scenario for a couple of days now so maybe it was on to something. There may be another LLC form under the MLC off the north coast so who knows. The ULL and Hispanola land mass sure have made this a confounding storm to track.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Does anyone else see what im seeing? if this is the case its about 18 to 20 hours ahead of the forecast. I would say that may call for some pretty quick thinking on the part of the nhc. this isnt over yet, now this gets interesting

As a lurker/ignorant for the most part,can you elaborate? Thanks

I think that there would be some type of change in the forecast obviously if the center is A: now over water ,obvious changes in the intensity forecast. B:its prob 100 to 120 mile north or "ahead" of there forecast so that may change some of there current thinking on where its heading, how much i don,t know. I am no expert. and I didnt sleep at a holiday inn express last night.

[Thunder44]

Does this change the track of Noel if this did occur or does it just scout him out faster.

There is a small ridge to the north of the system which you can see on water vapor imagery. It will probably turn it back to the NW for while today before the next trough comes off the SE coast tomorrow and takes it NE.

[Nimbus]

LLC looks like it is trying to shoot the Channel west of Haiti. It would be great if it had some land interaction with Cuba and did not get a chance to become a Cane till it was on a track away from land.

[cycloneye]

29/1145 UTC 19.8N 72.6W OVERLAND NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

If SSD position is right,the center is almost in the north coast of Haiti.

[wxman57]

Does anyone else see what im seeing? if this is the case its about 18 to 20 hours ahead of the forecast. I would say that may call for some pretty quick thinking on the part of the nhc. this isnt over yet, now this gets interesting

I certainly see it. Quite a few surface obs indicate the center is NW of Haiti near 20.9N/73.1W. That's where it appears to be on visible imagery as well. Closest model to the current position is the GFDL.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 291240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC MON OCT 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NOEL (AL162007) 20071029 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071029 1200 071030 0000 071030 1200 071031 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 72.5W 20.2N 74.0W 21.6N 75.7W 22.5N 77.2W
BAMD 18.5N 72.5W 20.1N 73.5W 21.4N 74.4W 22.4N 75.1W
BAMM 18.5N 72.5W 20.2N 73.6W 21.5N 74.7W 22.6N 75.6W
LBAR 18.5N 72.5W 20.2N 73.3W 22.0N 73.8W 23.7N 73.8W
SHIP 40KTS 46KTS 54KTS 61KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 53KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071031 1200 071101 1200 071102 1200 071103 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 78.7W 23.3N 80.0W 23.4N 80.0W 24.2N 81.2W
BAMD 23.5N 75.6W 27.0N 74.0W 31.3N 69.4W 33.9N 61.6W
BAMM 23.6N 76.3W 26.0N 76.1W 27.8N 74.6W 29.0N 74.6W
LBAR 24.8N 73.2W 26.1N 71.2W 27.7N 68.6W 31.3N 64.6W
SHIP 65KTS 63KTS 55KTS 40KTS
DSHP 64KTS 62KTS 54KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 72.5W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 72.1W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 71.6W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 100NM

[NcentralFlaguy]

Does anyone else see what im seeing? if this is the case its about 18 to 20 hours ahead of the forecast. I would say that may call for some pretty quick thinking on the part of the nhc. this isnt over yet, now this gets interesting

I certainly see it. Quite a few surface obs indicate the center is NW of Haiti near 20.9N/73.1W. That's where it appears to be on visible imagery as well. Closest model to the current position is the GFDL.

the GFDL also displays just a hint of a NW movement than back to the north, the other models have much more of a westward movement in response to the high , which one of these scenarios do you feel best comes in line with the current upper air pattern?

[boca]

Does anyone else see what im seeing? if this is the case its about 18 to 20 hours ahead of the forecast. I would say that may call for some pretty quick thinking on the part of the nhc. this isnt over yet, now this gets interesting

I certainly see it. Quite a few surface obs indicate the center is NW of Haiti near 20.9N/73.1W. That's where it appears to be on visible imagery as well. Closest model to the current position is the GFDL.

the GFDL also displays just a hint of a NW movement than back to the north, the other models have much more of a westward movement in response to the high , which one of these scenarios do you feel best comes in line with the current upper air pattern?

I think for Noel the GFDL model is the model of choice. Its been on the money with this storm.

[Thunder44]

Does anyone else see what im seeing? if this is the case its about 18 to 20 hours ahead of the forecast. I would say that may call for some pretty quick thinking on the part of the nhc. this isnt over yet, now this gets interesting

I certainly see it. Quite a few surface obs indicate the center is NW of Haiti near 20.9N/73.1W. That's where it appears to be on visible imagery as well. Closest model to the current position is the GFDL.

If that there where the LLC is now then I think would think that it would be get be able to get closer to South Florida than currently forecast before turning back out? Do you think so?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I have to wonder if the new position and the accelerated timeline could change the steering setup in that the ridge would be in place longer before it's broken down by the approaching short wave trough due in 2-3 days. This could allow for the storm to get further west then previously thought.

[wxman57]

Does anyone else see what im seeing? if this is the case its about 18 to 20 hours ahead of the forecast. I would say that may call for some pretty quick thinking on the part of the nhc. this isnt over yet, now this gets interesting

I certainly see it. Quite a few surface obs indicate the center is NW of Haiti near 20.9N/73.1W. That's where it appears to be on visible imagery as well. Closest model to the current position is the GFDL.

If that there where the LLC is now then I think would think that it would be get be able to get closer to South Florida than currently forecast before turning back out? Do you think so?

Nope, no increased threat to Florida. There's a cold front between the storm and Florida. I plotted the 06Z GFS at 1/2mb increments and the GFS actually has a low center right where Noel's center is now by 15Z. It tracks it NW just east of the Bahamas then NE and out to sea, passing south of Bermuda. I think that might be a good track to use.

[NcentralFlaguy]

yeah boca, I was thinking the same thing. its always the model everyone laughs at during the initial runs, thats the one that always verifies..lol

[wxman57]

Here's a surface plot with the low center identified.

[NcentralFlaguy]

wxman, what do you think about intensity, and a threat to bermuda?

[cpdaman]

WXMAN if it is where your chart shows than it is over part of the bahamas practically

sorry to nitpick but i guess you were referring to the NW bahamas , when you said it would go east of bahamas, right

also how squally do you think conditions will get on florida's treasure and gold coast ( melbourne to miami)

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[/quote]

Nope, no increased threat to Florida. There's a cold front between the storm and Florida. I plotted the 06Z GFS at 1/2mb increments and the GFS actually has a low center right where Noel's center is now by 15Z. It tracks it NW just east of the Bahamas then NE and out to sea, passing south of Bermuda. I think that might be a good track to use.[/quote]

How about the fact that the ULL that was previously to it's west is now to it's south and could pinwheel it to the west along with the mid-level ridge to the north? And didn't the NHC say the short wave trough would begin to break down this ridge in 2-3 days? Seems enough time to allow for significant westward movement given it's already close proximity to the Bahamas and Florida.

[ronjon]

This storm is about done. Dry air is getting sucked into the "apparent center" from the SW and has intruded already into western Haiti. There appears to be another ULL forming between Cuba and Haiti based on water vapor imagery. Convection is waning and is seriously disrupted by the mountains of Hispanola. I really don't see how this system could strengthen given the above conditions and I could see it downgraded to a depression soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-wv.html

[boca]

Nope, no increased threat to Florida. There's a cold front between the storm and Florida. I plotted the 06Z GFS at 1/2mb increments and the GFS actually has a low center right where Noel's center is now by 15Z. It tracks it NW just east of the Bahamas then NE and out to sea, passing south of Bermuda. I think that might be a good track to use.

I don't see a cold front between Florida and Noel I'm confused. Their is a trough over North Florida and a high over the mid Atlantic. The above is from wxman57.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Nope, no increased threat to Florida. There's a cold front between the storm and Florida. I plotted the 06Z GFS at 1/2mb increments and the GFS actually has a low center right where Noel's center is now by 15Z. It tracks it NW just east of the Bahamas then NE and out to sea, passing south of Bermuda. I think that might be a good track to use.

I don't see a cold front between Florida and Noel I'm confused. Their is a trough over North Florida and a high over the mid Atlantic. The above is from wxman57.

~~~~~~~~~~~~
Agreed. One only needs to go to beach here on the east coast of Florida to see the strong easterly flow now in effect. If the storm successfully reforms over the north coast of Haiti I would not be surprised to see a WNW course for a day or two with it now being to the north of the ULL that was kicking it north and the ridge to it's north which isn't forecast to break down for 2-3 days.