Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is going to have to be
watched for at least 7-10 days...

[hurricanetrack]

I bet she won't be a hurricane when the turn comes but will be within 2 days after that turn.

Boy- the CMC and EURO paint an ugly picture, that is for sure. At least we will have something quite of interest to watch for the next week at least.

[LeeJet]

Andrew-like track?

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2007 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 14:17:09 N Lon : 48:27:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1011.2mb/ 31.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 2.2 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Center Temp : +11.9C Cloud Region Temp : -25.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

****************************************************

The adjusted T# is back up to 3.4 so maybe it is bottoming out? The numbers were around 1.5 this afternoon...

[Vortex]

Euro 12Z near Miami



http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092712!!/

[cycloneye]

Euro 12Z near Miami



http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7092712!!/

That was posted at previous page.

[cpdaman]

it appears the track keeps bending back WNW lets see how Karen does tommorrow . I think it is sort of funny, how she blossomed today against most forecasts/predictions and the fact that shear forecasts and their impact are so weak.

if karen's center is under the convection tommorrow nite she will have my full attention (esp) w/ the nhc clearly more bullish with the ridge building NW of her.

the hybrid low off the bahamas on monday may be an appetizer for next weekend

[Coredesat]

The adjusted T# is back up to 3.4 so maybe it is bottoming out? The numbers were around 1.5 this afternoon...

Actually, the rapid dissipation flag is on, so the raw T (not the adjusted T, which is 2.2) may be dropping.

[canegrl04]

I bet she won't be a hurricane when the turn comes but will be within 2 days after that turn.

Boy- the CMC and EURO paint an ugly picture, that is for sure. At least we will have something quite of interest to watch for the next week at least.

The CMC normally is not reliable,however the EURO is. I give their forecasts more credence

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection is rapidly re-firing as the sun goes down, and the center of Karen is submerged back under the convection!

Also, almost every single model on FLhurricane.com's Spaghetti Model Plot turns back west!
http://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimat ... 7&storm=12

[cycloneye]

Plenty of reds appear.A little stronger at 11 PM?

['CaneFreak]

Just a quick note:

If you are one of those people out there that wants Karen to come near your given location, I just want to make sure that you understand that you DO NOT want to see Karen strengthen overnight and into the day tomorrow. If Karen becomes a stronger cyclone earlier than forecast, then SHE WILL FIND A WEAKNESS no matter how strong the ridge is. So, PICK UP SHEAR....for all you people I disagree with out there!!!!

[Buck]

Wow... Karen... you show that shear!

[canegrl04]

Plenty of reds appear.A little stronger at 11 PM?

She seems to be holding up well under the shear,which is disconcerting.Ingrid she ain't

[jaxfladude]

Is there any chance of karen rebounding into something nasty ?

After the shear subsides in 2 days or so...Euro rebounds it and explodes it to a
cat 3/4.

To whom or how close to whom are you speaking of????

Tropical Storm Karen(2007) please go the way Ingrid did, thank you, signed by everyone but people I disagree with...

[george_r_1961]

If the models are right then Karen isnt going harmlessly out to sea. Residents of the Eastern Seaboard need to watch this one. Even if there is no landfall it could come uncomfortably close.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS shows a almost similar track for Karen that the EURO has but more weaker.

And below is the whole loop.

18z GFS Loop

[canegrl04]

18z GFS shows a almost similar track for Karen that the EURO has but more weaker than EURO.

And below is the whole loop.

18z GFS Loop

Most of the models have now jumped on the strong ridge train. I think the EURO led the way with this yesterday

[punkyg]

How is the shear over karen.
is it expected to get worse or is she in a area where shear is low for now.

[bwhorton2007]

punky,
she should be in fairly high shear right now but with convection explosion over the center i just don't know.