CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

Chetumal is going to be getting the southern eyewall

Chetumal is at 18.5N, the eye has not even cleared that yet

[Sanibel]

I think the pressure will be around 909 maybe 907 when the reconnaissance aircraft gets there. 170mph from intense IR burst.

[marcane_1973]

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm

Anyone else watching this!! OMG!!!! FREAKING AWESOME!!!!!!!

I was just getting ready to post that. This Dean is one mean Dean now. If they Are getting winds and rain like that 150 miles from the center OMG I cant imagine what it would be like near the center. I guess just imagine being in an F3 or maybe even F4 tornado. Im sure any of you guys in Homestead Florida could explain.

[Derek Ortt]

As bad as this is going to be... the orchestra is just rehearsing

The show is on Wednesday... won't be as intense, but far more people impacted and far deadlier

[CrazyC83]

905
URNT15 KNHC 210454
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 11 20070821
044500 2234N 08658W 4098 07444 0433 -132 -137 111045 046 010 002 00
044530 2231N 08658W 4098 07446 0432 -133 -139 110045 046 009 003 00
044600 2229N 08657W 4099 07442 0431 -130 -136 107044 045 012 002 00
044630 2226N 08657W 4099 07438 0430 -131 -137 108043 044 015 002 00
044700 2224N 08657W 4101 07433 0428 -130 -139 104042 042 015 003 00
044730 2221N 08656W 4100 07432 0426 -129 -148 101039 040 016 003 00
044800 2219N 08656W 4098 07436 0425 -131 -143 103039 040 021 002 00
044830 2216N 08655W 4099 07433 0424 -132 -142 103039 039 020 002 00
044900 2214N 08655W 4097 07437 0422 -132 -146 102040 041 018 003 00
044930 2211N 08655W 4098 07434 0422 -131 -148 098042 043 018 003 00
045000 2209N 08654W 4099 07433 0421 -127 -151 097041 041 016 005 00
045030 2206N 08654W 4099 07431 0420 -128 -150 093038 040 018 006 00
045100 2204N 08654W 4098 07433 0420 -131 -154 089034 035 018 005 00
045130 2201N 08653W 4095 07445 0421 -127 -139 091044 049 017 004 00
045200 2158N 08653W 4100 07429 0420 -125 -137 091050 051 010 003 00
045230 2156N 08653W 4098 07432 0419 -126 -137 089046 047 015 002 00
045300 2153N 08652W 4098 07429 0418 -130 -138 084046 047 010 002 00
045330 2151N 08652W 4101 07426 0418 -126 -138 086050 055 011 002 00
045400 2148N 08652W 4098 07430 0418 -126 -141 092051 055 008 002 00
045430 2146N 08651W 4092 07446 0420 -134 -159 099053 056 012 002 00
$$

[Duddy]

As bad as this is going to be... the orchestra is just rehearsing

The show is on Wednesday... won't be as intense, but far more people impacted and far deadlier

Annnnnnnd.....CUT!

Nice job, lets go ahead and do the tag and we'll wrap it up for now.

[Scorpion]

Perhaps the HWRF has the right idea about 892 mb?

[secretforecaster]

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm

Anyone else watching this!! OMG!!!! FREAKING AWESOME!!!!!!!

They are really brave. I hope they know when to fold 'em!

[baitism]

Category 5 hurricane expected to spare Mexico direct hit
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... _0821.html

LOL, who writes these things?

[srainhoutx]

As bad as this is going to be... the orchestra is just rehearsing

The show is on Wednesday... won't be as intense, but far more people impacted and far deadlier

Agreed. Where have ALL the "tourist" been Evacuated.

[crazycajuncane]

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live1.htm

Anyone else watching this!! OMG!!!! FREAKING AWESOME!!!!!!!

They are really brave. I hope they know when to fold 'em!

Didn't he just say they are like 150 miles north of where the eye is? That's a significant amount away. The winds are pretty strong there though.

[Praxus]

CNN has a guy in Chetumal and I'm pretty sure other media are there too.

[Zardoz]

I know a couple who live on Ambergris Cay, the little island south of Xcalak. They've been there about ten years now, building condo buildings and either renting them out or selling them. They love the life there. It's truly idyllic.

They've been through hurricanes before, but nothing like this. God, I hope they've evacuated. Dean's eye is going to pass about ten or fifteen miles north of them. The island is definitely going to see a big storm surge, and the highest point on it is only about fifteen feet above sea level. The whole island could conceivably have the sea sweep over it.

Certainly they'll see winds in the neighborhood of 120 MPH, I would think. If they've left, will they have anything to come back to? If they've made the terrible mistake of staying, will they survive?

[CrazyC83]

242
URNT15 KNHC 210504
AF306 1504A DEAN HDOB 12 20070821
045500 2143N 08651W 4102 07423 0418 -129 -157 098051 052 015 002 00
045530 2140N 08651W 4140 07354 0413 -121 -159 100052 053 014 002 00
045600 2138N 08650W 4220 07207 0400 -111 -180 099054 056 013 002 00
045630 2135N 08650W 4309 07037 0383 -105 -197 098058 058 013 003 00
045700 2133N 08650W 4412 06847 0366 -096 -235 098056 057 025 001 00
045730 2131N 08649W 4498 06699 0356 -085 -239 097055 056 030 000 00
045800 2128N 08649W 4581 06558 0347 -074 -188 096055 055 030 000 00
045830 2126N 08649W 4664 06418 0332 -074 -101 099056 057 050 000 00
045900 2124N 08648W 4749 06274 0326 -072 -084 101056 056 076 010 03
045930 2122N 08648W 4836 06135 0313 -064 -082 100058 059 057 000 03
050000 2119N 08648W 4922 05993 0303 -053 -054 100055 059 061 001 00
050030 2117N 08647W 5009 05862 0298 -049 -049 093051 055 056 021 03
050100 2115N 08647W 5106 05707 0289 -044 -061 094055 057 054 000 03
050130 2113N 08647W 5199 05559 0279 -034 -065 097056 056 999 999 03
050200 2111N 08647W 5297 05407 0266 -026 -049 096058 060 047 000 03
050230 2109N 08646W 5390 05265 0252 -018 -036 097060 060 999 999 03
050300 2107N 08646W 5489 05122 0236 -007 -034 096060 061 999 999 03
050330 2105N 08646W 5553 05024 0044 -001 -032 098063 063 999 999 03
050400 2104N 08645W 5601 04961 0045 +004 -032 099064 064 063 000 03
050430 2102N 08645W 5654 04883 0048 +007 -028 100062 064 055 000 03
$$

Descending to operational altitude...

[Sanibel]

The live cam was from Corpus Christi.

[hiflyer]

ATCSCC ADVZY 144 DCC 08/20/2007 CARIBBEAN HURRICANE TELCON_FYI

MESSAGE:


IMPACTED AREA: CUBA, JAMAICA, CAYMAN ISLANDS, MEXICO'S YUCATAN
PENINSULA
1. HURRICANE DEAN
PUBLIC ADVISORY - HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 31
LOCATION - 270 MILES/435 KM EAST OF CHETUMAL, MEXICO
ARPT CLOSURES - REFER TO INTERNATIONAL NOTAMS FOR LATEST UPDATES
- HURRICANE WARNING: COASTINE OF BELIZE, ENTIRE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

ROUTE CLOSURES - NONE
JAMAICA - KINSTON AIRPORT (MKJP) CLOSED UNTIL 21/1500Z

CAYMAN ISLANDS - GERARD SMITH (MWCB) OPEN, GRAND CAYMAN ARPT
EXECTED TO REOPEN 21/1300ZA
MEXICO - 202200Z COZUMEL (MMCZ) CLOSED.
- 202200Z CHETUMAL (MMCM) CLOSED.
- 210400Z CANCUN (MMUN) EXPECTS TO CLOSE. THEY EXPECT ARPT
TO REOPEN 21/1800Z

[Duddy]

The live cam was from Corpus Christi.

".....and watching to see if the latest track takes it further North...."


Sensationalism.

[sponger]

I know a couple who live on Ambergris Cay, the little island south of Xcalak. They've been there about ten years now, building condo buildings and either renting them out or selling them. They love the life there. It's truly idyllic.

They've been through hurricanes before, but nothing like this. God, I hope they've evacuated. Dean's eye is going to pass about ten or fifteen miles north of them. The island is definitely going to see a big storm surge, and the highest point on it is only about fifteen feet above sea level. The whole island could conceivably have the sea sweep over it.

Certainly they'll see winds in the neighborhood of 120 MPH, I would think. If they've left, will they have anything to come back to? If they've made the terrible mistake of staying, will they survive?

South of the eye will be spared the storm surge, and a commerical grade concrete building will survive mostly intact. Wood frame is toast in that eyewall.

[secretforecaster]

The live cam was from Corpus Christi.

So the first guy was in CC too? It looked like a completely different feed.

[Sanibel]

Dean's eye is going to pass about ten or fifteen miles north of them.

I'm thinking more like 40 miles. Still the bay behind them is positioned perfectly for the strong winds closer to the eye to drive surge from the bay over the Key. I'm sure we are going to hear tales tomorrow. My total guess is around 100mph sustained there. Maybe less with a tightening storm. I'm not sure.