Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[lrak]

it looks like it wants Tampico.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Buck]

This is a fascinating storm for me.

[americanrebel]

This storm has set a new record that was just set this year by Humberto. Am I correct. Going from TD to possible Cat 2 Hurricane.

[Over my head]

We may come close to a distinct eye. There are some signs (on IR) of a warm depression attempting to form near the convective "towers" in the CDO's center. I think it's safe to utilize "rapid intensification" here. I think frictional effects will prevent intensification beyond Category 2 status, but the excellent ventilation (via UL anticyclone and 5 kts of shear) + heat content = deepening trend until landfall.

Last GOES visible imagery before night

I just looked at this animation and it shows it growing bigger in each frame... but I see no spin. Why does this one not have the same spinning look that the others in the past few weeks have
had ?

If a visible were available you would see some spin of the low clouds...you are seeing the expanding tops of thunderstorms on the IR images...there is rotation below just not very visible without the visible images.

I see. ...or wish I could "see" below the clouds in this case. Thank you for the explanations. This one sure was a fast developer.

[CrazyC83]

This storm has set a new record that was just set this year by Humberto. Am I correct. Going from TD to possible Cat 2 Hurricane.

It has broken Humberto's TD to cane near landfall record (10-11 hours, assuming it really was a storm at 10 am CDT). It was a TD at 7 am (undisputed) and a hurricane at 7 pm.

[CrazyC83]

I see. ...or wish I could "see" below the clouds in this case. Thank you for the explanations. This one sure was a fast developer.

The Mexican radar has a well-defined eye and eyewall...75 kt is my current intensity guess now...

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

calm before the storm

[HurricaneRobert]

Does it have a pinhole eye, or am I seeing something else?

Yes it is explosive, but fortunately it is very small. I can't tell you how little Humberto was noticed when it hit this area.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the eyewall and eye I would say this ranks close to the smallest "hurricane" that I've seen in the Atlantic. Maybe as small as wilma's and smaller then charley's eyewall and eye. The clouds make it look much bigger.

The system looks even smaller then Humberto.

[americanrebel]

What is the projected path after landfall?

[lrak]

Bret was very small and extremely powerful.

[HurricaneRobert]

What is the projected path after landfall?

To Dissipationville

[Cyclenall]

Looking at the eyewall and eye I would say this ranks close to the smallest "hurricane" that I've seen in the Atlantic. Maybe as small as wilma's and smaller then charley's eyewall and eye. The clouds make it look much bigger.

The system looks even smaller then Humberto.

It looks about the same size as Charley and maybe a bit larger then Humberto IMO.

Well, so far I'm amazed. This season will be one to remember for some odd things. We have 2 CAT5 landfalls, and now 2 rapid GOM hurricanes up til landfall.

[Over my head]

I see. ...or wish I could "see" below the clouds in this case. Thank you for the explanations. This one sure was a fast developer.

The Mexican radar has a well-defined eye and eyewall...75 kt is my current intensity guess now...

Could you provide a link please Crazy?

[wxmann_91]

I see. ...or wish I could "see" below the clouds in this case. Thank you for the explanations. This one sure was a fast developer.

The Mexican radar has a well-defined eye and eyewall...75 kt is my current intensity guess now...

Could you provide a link please Crazy?

For pete's sake though please do not crash the server (directed at most everybody here)

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

[Buck]

80mph, 990mb at 11pm EST.

[JTD]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 280241
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...LORENZO STRENGTHENING JUST A FEW HOURS FROM LANDFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF TUXPAN WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LORENZO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...20.5 N...96.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

350
WTNT43 KNHC 280241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

WHEN THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT LORENZO AROUND 1930Z...
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS FALLING AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 MB/HR.
AT THAT TIME...LORENZO WAS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE
THEN...LORENZO HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT
HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC OVER THE CENTER. THE PRESENTATION
OF THE CENTER HAS ALSO IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY ON THE ALVARADO
RADAR...WHICH NOW SHOWS A CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE EARLIER DEEPENING TREND HAS ABATED...AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. LORENZO STILL HAS
SEVERAL HOURS LEFT OVER WATER TO DEEPEN FURTHER...AND A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS BASIC TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE RIDGE AFTER
LANDFALL.

ALTHOUGH LORENZO IS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE...ITS SLOW MOTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 20.5N 96.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 20.6N 97.4W 75 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[americanrebel]

Ok, the storm my be gone in a couple days, but where are the rains going to go?

[JonathanBelles]

My forecast is here: viewtopic.php?p=1646132#p1646132