Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

06/0645 UTC 29.2N 69.4W EXTRATROPICAL99L





It looks more frontal now than ever before.

[KWT]

Yeah it does look very extra-tropical right now, that tail yesterday is still present. For what its worth I think the Sat.center is too far east however based on quikscat, looks closer to 69.8W. I still wouldn't be surprised if it develops however, esp as it'll have to go back over the gulf stream as it heads back westwards that should help it become warm-cored again but it might have to start all over again by that point.

By the way i'm 95% sure post season this will be upgraded to at least a subtropical depression, no way was it not a system yesterday, it had everything, FSU said warm cored, recon found a closed circulation and high enough winds, Sat. imagery obviously showed a clsoed circulation very close to deep convection, dvorak satellite estimates also supported a Td/STD and Ships nearby reported high enough winds, the only thing that suggeste dit wasn't totally tropical was the frontal tail but we've seen worse looking systems become STS/TS, yet alone STD/TS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The irony of this is, some of those people who were bashing TPC earlier for not upgrading it, if this had been upgraded then died out like that in 24 hours, would now be bashing TPC for having upgraded it.

Hey, the thing had a closed LLC with 30-35 knot winds yesterday morning. It did not look to bad for the sheared system it was. It is just if it had a warm or cool core, the nhc recon found the core was not warm enough to be upgraded to a depression. It was debateable as the recon was going into the system, it was no bashing to it, that is a fact.(Maybe slightly). The global models have been forecasting this to become a hurricane in threaten the east coast of the united states. The globals may not be totally wrong, in the lower levels of the Atmosphere is not acting to badly right now, with the high building north of the low pressure area. That should turn this system towards the west through out today. The ULL/trough at upper levels does not seem to be letting up like Derek said. But I do expect it will get some what more favorable over the next 24-36 hours for some slow development. I think this could even become something late Saturday into Sunday; but that could change if the trough/ull does not let up.

Weather is not easy to forecast or get a handle on. It changes very fast and soemthing that is very debateable.

[hurricanetrack]

It is quite amazing to see this- all of the global models develop this but yet it might be time to call it what it is- a bust. Boy the new ECMWF has backed WAAAAY off and has next to nothing coming for the coast early next week.

Oh well, the reality is certainly quite different than what the computer models are telling us.

[Thunder44]

06/0645 UTC 29.2N 69.4W EXTRATROPICAL99L

Dvorak estimates are really not important for hybrid type systems like this. We saw the case already with Chantal. And the QS image is from last night. I agree it look terrible now, but I still this thik system will probably develop, but may not get going until tomorrow. The ULL does look it is diving southward but needs to move further SW to decrease the shear over the LLC . If the global models are in this much error now, they would of backed off already. 6z GFS still develops it.

[Derek Ortt]

it may be time to stop giving so much weight to the global models for forecasting TC genesis

They have been showing less skill at predicting these events (having Felix as an open wave) than my 5 year old brother has at following directions

[wxman57]

99L seems to be heading in the wrong direction if it's going to develop. Wind shear appears to be too strong. Development chances diminishing rapidly.

[HURAKAN]

Shear has increased over the past 24 hours over 99L.

[hurricanetrack]

Well, it is not moving much at all now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

Center looks to be right where it was initialized on the 6z hurricane models: 29.5 69.5

Like Jack Bauer, this will be the longest 24 hours of 99L's life. If it can get past this flogging, it just may prove the globals correct.

[cycloneye]

Wow,this time yesterday at least there was much more convection just to the east of the low,today almost nada.I think it is time to say that word with four letters.

If you dont want to be bored with this,better go to talking tropics forum and start to focus on what that big wave will do as soon it comes out completly.

[KWT]

Yeah but that wave cycloneye is no threat at all to anywhere bar maybe the Azores, its going to fish into no-mans land. At least with this system it will eventually head back towards the USA and as long a sit has a circulation, even an open one it could re-develop again, esp as shear is progged to weaken tomorrow.

[Thunder44]

On the latest water vapor imagery, it looks to me that ULL has started moving back to SW. Shear should start decreasing over the LLC later today, which doesn't appear to be very much at all, and it also getting better defined in latest infrared satellite imagery.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

[Nimbus]

Looks like it is done moving east its almost stationary. Starting to sink south with the shear so that will delay development. Should survive till that upper level shear diminishes but barely. Wonder what the models will do with the new motion?

[wxman57]

Well, it is not moving much at all now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

Center looks to be right where it was initialized on the 6z hurricane models: 29.5 69.5

Like Jack Bauer, this will be the longest 24 hours of 99L's life. If it can get past this flogging, it just may prove the globals correct.

Maybe it'll bite the throat out of the jet stream?

No, I think Jack may be a goner this time.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



99L is not a goner, just taking a vacation caused by stress of shear pressure!!!

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[punkyg]

So much for a tropical storm higher then 45mph making landfall in the U.S.

[HURAKAN]

So much for a tropical storm higher then 45mph making landfall in the U.S.

Lets refrain of making predictions until we have something definite.

[punkyg]

No i'm not saying it won't develop i'm saying if it did won't be strong.

[storms in NC]

Here is what the NWC in Wilm had to say this morning. We Will see over today how it goes. Friday will be yeah or nay



.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGHER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SEEMS TO HAVE ACQUIRED SUB
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY UNIFORM IN DEEPENING
SYSTEM AND MOVING IT BACK WESTWARD...MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTH OR SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE JUST AFTER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD ENDS...ON SUNDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY COMES IN WHERE
THE DETAILS DIFFER IN TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE NAM SPINS UP THIS
LOW FAR MORE INTENSELY THAN THE GFS...ECMWF OR UKMET. LANDFALL
LOCATIONS ARE SIMILARLY SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST. HAVE TRIED TO
FOLLOW HPC TRACK GUIDANCE WHEN ADJUSTING WINDS AND
POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE WHAT...IF ANYTHING...THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS TO SAY
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM BEFORE ENTERING ANY FORECAST ELEMENTS THAT ARE
ON THE EXTREME SIDE. THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS
PRETTY CUT AND DRIED THOUGH. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A
DEEP DRY AIRMASS OVER THE CWA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG RIDGE
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FOR TEMPS HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE MET...WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING QUITE WELL LATELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR LATITUDE 29.37N AND LONGITUDE 70.33W
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING W UNDERNEATH A STRONG
RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER N. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W...IT
IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON TROPICAL-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
STRENGTHENS. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE...THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH DURING SAT AS THE
STORM TURNS TO THE NW AND THEN N....MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
SUN. STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS STORM SHOULD OCCUR DURING SAT.SAT
EVE. CURRENT FORECAST WILL CAP NE TO N SUSTAINED WINDS AT AROUND 20
MPH ALONG THE COAST...STRONGEST N WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND IT MAY BE THAT MOST OF THE HEAVY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...WILL SHOW AN INCREASING TREND FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE SAT
NIGHT...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD EVERYWHERE DURING SUN. HIGH PRESSURE
TO N WILL RIDGE S ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF CONVECTION UNTIL UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.