Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[brunota2003]

I agreed the center appears to be elongating quite a bit. However, it looks like the center has finally stopped moving east, so maybe the shear will finally die down and allow it to pull itself back together again. Time is running out for the center, and if it does not do something soon, it is going to either spin itself out or get torn into bite sized pieces.

The first early morning visibles are going to be interesting, what will be left?

[DrewFL]

What is left is a new center re-location.

[Ptarmigan]

I read in Jeff Master's blog that conditions will be more favorable by the weekends and all the models are unanimous that a storm could develop off the coast of Africa that time.

Link

[fci]

Wow, it seems like if an amateur has a different opinion than the prevailing thoughts of the Pros; they are not allowed to express them.
Even if the opinion is presented with absolutely no disrespect for the Pros.
I fully respect all of the Pro Mets here but they will not always be right and we should at least be permitted to present a contrary opinion if we have it.
The key to me is that comments and opinions are respectfully presented.
That should be allowed, and accepted; both ways.

[artist]

I think as long as someone presents their ideas with some reasoning that makes sense then that is mostly not true.

[attallaman]

While this decides to develop and things may be boring for some,why not go to Talking Tropics forum and look at a real big player that soon will for sure be the in the headlines.?

What would that be?

[fasterdisaster]

Wow, it seems like if an amateur has a different opinion than the prevailing thoughts of the Pros; they are not allowed to express them.
Even if the opinion is presented with absolutely no disrespect for the Pros.
I fully respect all of the Pro Mets here but they will not always be right and we should at least be permitted to present a contrary opinion if we have it.
The key to me is that comments and opinions are respectfully presented.
That should be allowed, and accepted; both ways.

Seconded.

[shah8]

I disagree.

I'm a migrant from weatherunderground, where it was a great place to be during the 2005 season despite STORMTOP's craziness before (with his dionysian predictions wrt Emily) and after his lucky prognostication with Katrina. Though he did do okay with Ernesto.

In any event, I've started passing over guys like Frank2's posts and some others because I thought they were operating from a intuitive conclusion rather than working towards clarifing an unknown. I haven't said anything because that's impolite.

As impolite as the grousing about how promets gets so much more respect. The *good* nonprofessionals that I pay attention to, don't have to complain about lack of attention/respect. Only the losers. I'd prefer this not to become like weatherunderground, OK?

People here are cool. If you're not getting attention, maybe you gotta work on the presentation/providing evidence skills, ok? Now I'll head back to lurking...

[DrewFL]

I disagree.

I'm a migrant from weatherunderground, where it was a great place to be during the 2005 season despite STORMTOP's craziness before (with his dionysian predictions wrt Emily) and after his lucky prognostication with Katrina. Though he did do okay with Ernesto.

In any event, I've started passing over guys like Frank2's posts and some others because I thought they were operating from a intuitive conclusion rather than working towards clarifing an unknown. I haven't said anything because that's impolite.

As impolite as the grousing about how promets gets so much more respect. The *good* nonprofessionals that I pay attention to, don't have to complain about lack of attention/respect. Only the losers. I'd prefer this not to become like weatherunderground, OK?

People here are cool. If you're not getting attention, maybe you gotta work on the presentation/providing evidence skills, ok? Now I'll head back to lurking...

LOL! I had a 10 hour running debate with Lefty on the WU during Ernesto and never once saw Stormtop!
Regardless....I agreeeeeee this should not be like that place please.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The latest on 99L, is that it has become less organized over the last 6 hours. Shear levels have increased at 5-10 knots are near 30 knots over the system. The LLC has become elongated southwest to northeast, also the convection is flowing off it, and is at least 80-100 miles east of the center. The high pressure system is building over the eastern United states, this is forecasted to build or expand east over the top of this system. Already you can see that the high has made it to 75 west; based on the way the clouds are starting to move west around the base. The LLC has also stalled...What will happen is the trough that is effecting it will move out over the next 6 hours. Followed by this high building over it, when it does so, this system should have shear less then 15 knots by tomarrow afternoon. I don't expect a huge storm out of this; but a named system at leasted.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_12.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_nhem_300.html

Look at the high from 500-300 millibars. You can see that the high is stronger in the mid levels close to 500-700 millibars, that is why the LLC is stalling. But the trough at 300 millibars is just north of it, in is set up just right for strong shear across the system.

[Coredesat]

Actually, it looks like 99L is being absorbed by the front. I can't find the LLC on IR2 imagery anymore.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Actually, it looks like 99L is being absorbed by the front. I can't find the LLC on IR2 imagery anymore.

I agree, its looking pretty bad this morning. But enough ridging at 500-850(5,000-18,000 feet) millibars to stall the LLC near 29.5 north/69.5. It has stayed there for the last 3-4 hours. The trough is at a higher level(25,000-32,000 feet level) of the Atmopshere. So you have a high at the surface spreading eastward, north of what is left of the "LLC". And you have a strong trough over that. Once this trough pulls out, another 4-6 hours or so....This high should build upward through the Atmopshere causing the broad and elongated LLC to move westward. Also the enviroment should become more favorable with that.

Yeah I agree that most of the convection looks to be going away form the system. In fact if it had made it to 65 west or more east it would head more eastward/northeast.

I don't see this becoming anything intill Saturday at the momoment. This thing is really going to have to reorganize.

[Thunder44]

Actually, it looks like 99L is being absorbed by the front. I can't find the LLC on IR2 imagery anymore.

Although it's difficult to find a LLC on infrared imagery, I can see it some spinning near 29N and 69.5W, and it appears to be drifting southward. It's not being absorbed by any front:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

[Thunder44]

From the 5:30am TWO:

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Derek Ortt]

it is time to reconsider the forecast of a strong hurricane

This is evolving NOTHING like how the models indicated (and I do NOT ever recall them being this AWFUL for something in the mid lats in a long time)

Also, that UL to the west is NOT going away

This may be the second consecutive occurrance that the globals have just been beyond PATHETIC on

[jrod]

The NHC was right to not upgrade this yesterday. This system looks dead to me. It reminds me of the wave the models developed about two weeks ago that was supose to impact Florida and it got rippped apart by an ULL. I'd be suprised to see anything develop here.

[Chacor]

The irony of this is, some of those people who were bashing TPC earlier for not upgrading it, if this had been upgraded then died out like that in 24 hours, would now be bashing TPC for having upgraded it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah, I'm starting to agree on this may not turn into much. But the high is starting to build over the lower levels, and which case is going to turn the "low" to the west or west-northwest. I also feel that shear should decrease over the next 24-36 hours but not enough for this to become a hurricane. Trough/ULL won't go away to easly at the upper levels.

The nhc was right not to upgrade this. Good job,,,but even a better job by the people on storm2k that seen that this did not have the enviroment to develop into anything big.

Still with the set up we have to watch it closely.

[HURAKAN]

06/0645 UTC 29.2N 69.4W EXTRATROPICAL99L