CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tropicwatch]

Vortex Message

000
URNT12 KNHC 202339
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/2302Z
B. 18 DEG 13 MIN N
084 DEG 47 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2347 M
D. 117 KTS
E. 209 DEG 8 NM
F. 291 DEG 110 KTS
G. 211 DEG 09 NM
H. 915 MB
I. 11 C/ 3051 M
J. 21 C/ 3031 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.06/3 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 26
MAX FL WIND 155 KT NE QUAD 2306Z

[JonathanBelles]

915mb 155mph

[vacanechaser]

312
WTNT34 KNHC 202350
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...HURRICANE DEAN VERY NEAR CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH...
...OUTER BANDS ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 155 MPH...245 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...AND DEAN IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[miamicanes177]

Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...18.2 N...85.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph.
Minimum central pressure...915 mb.

If Dean strengthens 1mph more he will be a category 5

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 202350
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...HURRICANE DEAN VERY NEAR CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH...
...OUTER BANDS ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 155 MPH...245 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...AND DEAN IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[whereverwx]

This will probably be the last visible of Dean while he is a major hurricane.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will likely eat crow for the above post. But if it go's into another EWRC it is likely it will weaken some again. In be to close to land by the time it comes out of it to restrengthen to or over cat5.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow...the equivalent pressure of Hurricane Isabel when at 165mph...its gonna get category 5...i know it now

[msbee]

here is a web site with some geographical data on the Yucatan area
some Cancun videos and a lot of other info.

http://hurricanecancun.com/

[CrazyC83]

Tied with Isabel for 11th strongest storm...

[lrak]

here is a web site with some geographical data on the Yucatan area
some Cancun videos and a lot of other info.

http://hurricanecancun.com/

thank you.

[Stratusxpeye]

"wow...the equivalent pressure of Hurricane Isabel when at 165mph...its gonna get category 5...i know it now"

I disagree with this. I highly doubt this will become cat5. So close and there's no difference between 155 and 156 if it were to landfall at that stage. I would go with a CAT 4 at 140 - 145 at landfall in mexico. Just my thoughs.

[CrazyC83]

Wikipedia has 9 dead in the Carib.

I've heard 10, but haven't found a printed source yet for the 10th death.

[miamicanes177]

I will likely eat crow for the above post. But if it go's into another EWRC it is likely it will weaken some again. In be to close to land by the time it comes out of it to restrengthen to or over cat5.

I disagree with this. I highly doubt this will become cat5. So close and there's no difference between 155 and 156 if it were to landfall at that stage. I would go with a CAT 4 at 140 - 145 at landfall in mexico. Just my thoughs.

The pressure is 915mb and FL winds were 155kts. I would like to tell you a few things but I'll bite my tounge (or fingers).

[Tstormwatcher]

Cancun radar is back up as of 5 minutes ago for those interested.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

[cheezyWXguy]

"wow...the equivalent pressure of Hurricane Isabel when at 165mph...its gonna get category 5...i know it now"

I disagree with this. I highly doubt this will become cat5. So close and there's no difference between 155 and 156 if it were to landfall at that stage. I would go with a CAT 4 at 140 - 145 at landfall in mexico. Just my thoughs.

The NHC or a pro-met on here, i dont remember, thinks there will be little weakening if at all on approaching the Yucatan. In fact if it reaches cat 5, it will probably hold it till landfall

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think it was a CAT 5 at about 1 PM EST...Sat presentation then was unreal..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There using .85 reduce so 155 knots flight level=151 mph at the surface.

[cycloneye]

Radio station informs that the whole island of Cozumel is without water.The CAPA authorities say that as a precaution they cut the water.Power is still up in Cozumel.

Se informa que Cozumel esta sin agua.Capa dice que por precaucion con sus maquinas estan cortando el servicio aunque hay energia electrica.

[Cyclone1]

I kinda hope this doesn't become a category five, just so it can be remembered as the strongest category four in history.