TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Blown Away]

Looks like TD 8 is moving at a decent rate just N of due W. I guess it's supposed to slow down later. I think the guidance is to slow, once the NHC gets a good handle on motion and speed I anticipate the forward speed will be a little faster than predicted. The track has TD 8 moving just 13 degrees longitude in 5 days.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Looking at the loop it appears shear may be having an effect on this. Cloud tops have warmed since this morning and overall the structure is a little ragged.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Well it is only a tropical depression. By their very nature they are going to look ragged. And cloud tops will always pulse up and down, even with the strongers storms. Not that I'm saying it isn't being affected by shear, because I sure wouldn't know, but I just thought it was funny calling a tropical depression ragged. How smooth and organized can you expect it to be at this stage?

I fully understand pulses in convection and the fact that depressions are not going to look outstanding. I was olny pointing out that since this morning it is evident that it is under some shear and its appearence is not as good. You can tell this from the loop above. Look at the east side of the storm. The convection has been flattened by shear.

[ronjon]

Looks like TD 8 is moving at a decent rate just N of due W. I guess it's supposed to slow down later. I think the guidance is to slow, once the NHC gets a good handle on motion and speed I anticipate the forward speed will be a little faster than predicted. The track has TD 8 moving just 13 degrees longitude in 5 days.

Derek Ott's forecast is faster and puts the storm as a hurricane between the central and northern Leeward islands in 5 days.

[gatorcane]

Well, for what it's worth; historical tracks put TD 8 northeast of the islands and a threat to the Carolinas or a fish.

Not that 2007 has followed historical tracks much though............

Between 1926 and 1949 every system that edged the northern NE Leewards and Greater antilles impacted or were direct hits on South Florida.... and I think there are about 8 of them if I remember correctly.

Unless you are talking way NE of the Leeward islands

See the great 1947 Palm Beach County Hurricane as an example which ironically was approaching Palm Beach County about this time of in the month 60 years ago and was as far south in lattitude as this system is

I'm not saying we will see a repeat but it is not out of the question.

4 Hurricane #4 4-21 SEP 140 947 5

[windstorm99]

Dry air to its north maybe affecting the system in the short term.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[fci]

Well, for what it's worth; historical tracks put TD 8 northeast of the islands and a threat to the Carolinas or a fish.

Not that 2007 has followed historical tracks much though............

Between 1926 and 1949 every system that edged the northern NE Leewards and Greater antilles impacted or were direct hits on South Florida.... and I think there are about 8 of them if I remember correctly.

Unless you are talking way NE of the Leeward islands

See the great 1947 Palm Beach County Hurricane as an example which ironically was approaching Palm Beach County about this time of in the month 60 years ago and was as far south in lattitude as this system is

I'm not saying we will see a repeat but it is not out of the question.

I was referring to the Historical Tracks shown as part of the TD 08 package on Weather Underground.
As the system moves, the historicals will change but the spaghetti is thickest NE of the Islands and towards the Carolina's or fishy land.
Credit to Weather Underground and to ImageShack.

I am not saying that a repeat of the 1947 can;t happen either, but you know me; I go with historical or climatological until something compelling tells me differently.

[storms in NC]

Didn't Mark say something about shear?

[gatorcane]

Yeah but FCI that is if the storm is a couple of hundred miles ENE of the islands.....it looks like it could head through or just NE of the Leeward islands...

Note those runs change big time if it manages to get near the Hebert box.

[windstorm99]

[storms in NC]

Yeah but FCI that is if the storm is a couple of hundred miles ENE of the islands.....it looks like it could head through or just NE of the Leeward islands...

Note those runs change big time if it manages to get near the Hebert box.

Not all. Here is a list that have gone though the Box.

BOX #1 (since 1950)
1950 Baker--Alabama....1950 Dog--out to sea....1951 Charlie--Yucatan/Mexico....1952 Baker-- out to sea....1953 Carol--Nova scotia....1954 ALice--Leeward isl out to sea....1955 Connie--N Carolina....1955 Ione--N Carolina....1956 Betsy--N Antilles, PR,Bahamas....1958 Fifi--out to sea....1958 Ilsa--out to sea....1960 DonnaN Antilles,Bahamas,Fla,east seaboard....1963 Edith--windward isl,PR,Hispaniola....1964 Cleo--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Fla....1966 Faith--N Antilles....1966 Inez--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Bahamas,Fla,Yucatan,Mex....1967Beulah--Hispaniola,Yucata,S Texas....1975 Eloise--Hispaniola,Fla panhandle....1979 David--Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Fla,Ga,Sc....1984 Klaus--out to sea....1985 Gloria--NE U.S....1989 dean--Bermuda,Newfoundland....1989 Hugo--N Antilles,PR,SC....1990 Klaus-- out to sea....1995 Luis--N Antilles,New foundland....1995 Marilyn--N antilles,VI.PR....1996 Bertha--N antilles,VI,PR,N carolina....1996 Fran--N Carolina....1996 Hortense--PR,Nova scotia....1997 Erika--out to sea....1998 Georges--N antilles,VI,PR,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Keys,mississippi....1999 Jose--N antilles,VI....1999 Lenny--N antilles....2000 Debby--n antilles,VI,Hispaniola....2004 FrancesBahamas,Treasure coast,Fla....

[windstorm99]

That trof in the central atlantic might try to pull TD8 north of the islands in the coming days.

[fci]

Yeah but FCI that is if the storm is a couple of hundred miles ENE of the islands.....it looks like it could head through or just NE of the Leeward islands...

Note those runs change big time if it manages to get near the Hebert box.

Chris:
Remember that the Hebert Box does not guarantee a Florida event.
it's just storms that strike us generally go through the Hebert Box.The projected path does put this in the extreme NE corner of the box if you extrapolate out the track beyond 120 hours.
Still if you look at the historical that I posted; I am seeing only one storm and that one actually went south of the Islands and crossed Cuba.(Cleo-1964; I actually remember it- makes me feel very old )

[jdray]

The scariest historical reference of storms is:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Oh and also...my unofficial forecast thinking is to expect a track near the GFDL/Consensus...faster and to the south of the current guidance. This should also keep the TD in a little more favorable environment...

MW

Mike, so you see the system impacting the Central-Northern Lesser Antilles?

[HurricaneQueen]

A more southerly route initially brings to mind a Charley-like possibility with the possibility of fronts in the picture... though I doubt this will be such a small, compact system like Charlie was. Maybe a Frances-sized, Charlie-like path is possible? --now that would suck. waters are very very warm along a Charlie-like path.

That would spell disaster for SW Florida. But I can't think that far out. Let's see how the Islands fare before becoming overly concerned about the long term track/intensity. Of course, that is easier said than done.

Having interests in the Caribbean and in S. FL means twice the stress and I don't have a really good feeling about this storm. Time will tell. In the meantime, I'll be listening to NHC, Derek, Mike and others.

Lynn

[ronjon]

Derek's track forecast:

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl082007graphics.html

[canegrl04]

No reason to get distressed this early.It'll take a few more days before we have a very good idea where future Humberto is headed as far as the US is concerned

[seaswing]

The scariest historical reference of storms is:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I was a little girl during that one, but I remember it well.

[gatorcane]

A more southerly route initially brings to mind a Charley-like possibility with the possibility of fronts in the picture... though I doubt this will be such a small, compact system like Charlie was. Maybe a Frances-sized, Charlie-like path is possible? --now that would suck. waters are very very warm along a Charlie-like path.

That would spell disaster for SW Florida. But I can't think that far out. Let's see how the Islands fare before becoming overly concerned about the long term track/intensity. Of course, that is easier said than done.

Having interests in the Caribbean and in S. FL means twice the stress and I don't have a really good feeling about this storm. Time will tell. In the meantime, I'll be listening to NHC, Derek, Mike and others.

Lynn

Its way too far to speculate a Charley like scenario. This thing would be 10+ days away from SW Florida and it looks like there is more weakness to keep it from traversing the entire Caribbean