CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads
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DESTRUCTION5
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Dean forecasts (Post personal forecasts here)
The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
EJ’s Forecasts
Major Hurricane Dean
Advisory 13
10:30AMEDT
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for parts of Cuba, as well as a Tropical Storm Watch. I recommend these be discontinued as the storm has moved away from Cuba and no longer poses a tropical threat. I also recommend the Hurricane Warning for Jamaica be discontinued and the Hurricane Warning for the Cayman’s be downgraded to Tropical Storm Warnings. I finally recommend that the Hurricane Watch for the Western side of the Yucatan Peninsula be now upgraded to a warning.
The Cayman Islands have dodged a bullet, as Dean has moved below the islands.
Major Hurricane Dean is on a collision course with the Yucatan Peninsula.
Dean is going through another Eye wall Replacement Cycle. This is a process that can last an entire day sometimes, and storms normally do not strengthen during them. However, It is clear on satellite imagery that the cloud tops are becoming colder around Dean’s center, to the point where there is an actual ring of cold cloud tops surrounding Dean’s eye. Dean has also maintained organization as parts of it went through various mountains in the Caribbean. Thus, I am raising the intensity to 155 MPH with an estimated pressure of 919 MB. Dean can become a Category 5 later today.
Dean is currently heading westward at about 20 MPH. This general direction and speed should continue until Dean dissipates, with an increase in speed when Dean enters the Bay of Campeche and Southern Gulf of Mexico.
The computer models this morning agree on a general path through Eastern Mexico after hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. However, they show a sharp turn to the north when what is left of Dean moves through Central Mexico.
The residents of the Yucatan Peninsula should be finishing the preparations ASAP. Please make sure that your preparations, especially house preparations could withstand Category 4 or 5 conditions.
The residents of Eastern Mexico should currently be preparing for a Category 3 Hurricane.
Hurricane Hunters were flying into Dean earlier, but they never made it near the eye. I believe there were problems with the aircraft.
Although it is not shown on my intensity forecast below, I expect a Yucatan Peninsula landfall of winds of about 155 MPH and the Mexican coast landfall with 120 PMH winds.
For now, I am using the NHC’s center position which is 18.8N and 81.5W
All interests along Mexico and Southern Texas should monitor this system.
INITIAL 155 MPH
12HR 160 MPH
24HR 155 MPH
48HR 110 MPH
72HR 50 MPH
EJ’s Forecasts
Major Hurricane Dean
Advisory 13
10:30AMEDT
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for parts of Cuba, as well as a Tropical Storm Watch. I recommend these be discontinued as the storm has moved away from Cuba and no longer poses a tropical threat. I also recommend the Hurricane Warning for Jamaica be discontinued and the Hurricane Warning for the Cayman’s be downgraded to Tropical Storm Warnings. I finally recommend that the Hurricane Watch for the Western side of the Yucatan Peninsula be now upgraded to a warning.
The Cayman Islands have dodged a bullet, as Dean has moved below the islands.
Major Hurricane Dean is on a collision course with the Yucatan Peninsula.
Dean is going through another Eye wall Replacement Cycle. This is a process that can last an entire day sometimes, and storms normally do not strengthen during them. However, It is clear on satellite imagery that the cloud tops are becoming colder around Dean’s center, to the point where there is an actual ring of cold cloud tops surrounding Dean’s eye. Dean has also maintained organization as parts of it went through various mountains in the Caribbean. Thus, I am raising the intensity to 155 MPH with an estimated pressure of 919 MB. Dean can become a Category 5 later today.
Dean is currently heading westward at about 20 MPH. This general direction and speed should continue until Dean dissipates, with an increase in speed when Dean enters the Bay of Campeche and Southern Gulf of Mexico.
The computer models this morning agree on a general path through Eastern Mexico after hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. However, they show a sharp turn to the north when what is left of Dean moves through Central Mexico.
The residents of the Yucatan Peninsula should be finishing the preparations ASAP. Please make sure that your preparations, especially house preparations could withstand Category 4 or 5 conditions.
The residents of Eastern Mexico should currently be preparing for a Category 3 Hurricane.
Hurricane Hunters were flying into Dean earlier, but they never made it near the eye. I believe there were problems with the aircraft.
Although it is not shown on my intensity forecast below, I expect a Yucatan Peninsula landfall of winds of about 155 MPH and the Mexican coast landfall with 120 PMH winds.
For now, I am using the NHC’s center position which is 18.8N and 81.5W
All interests along Mexico and Southern Texas should monitor this system.
INITIAL 155 MPH
12HR 160 MPH
24HR 155 MPH
48HR 110 MPH
72HR 50 MPH
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wsquared77
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN -Threat Area -Yucatan Peninsula
From Belize National Weather Service (NEMO):
The Government of Belize has put the country on Red 2 as of this morning and the San Pedro Emergency Committee and the Caye Caulker Emergency Committee are advising as follows:
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO GIVE ESSENTIALLY A DUE WESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...270/18.
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR DEAN. THEREFORE...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION .. ALSO THE CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS … IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LANDFALL FOR THE CENTRE OF VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN IS NOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W WITH SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 140 KT. NEAR 30 to 50 Miles north of Chetumal
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS THEREFORE RECOMMENDED IMMEDIATE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW LYING AREAS AND THE OUTER ISLANDS AND CAYES TO BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
NEMO IS URGING ALL RESIDENTS OF AMBERGRIS CAYE, SAN PEDRO AND CAYE CAULKER TO COMPLETE THEIR EVACUATION PLANS NOW.
People are starting to become aware on the Belize message board that they might take a serious hit. The main areas where the ex-pats all concentrate are low-lying diving islands on the coast.
The Government of Belize has put the country on Red 2 as of this morning and the San Pedro Emergency Committee and the Caye Caulker Emergency Committee are advising as follows:
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO GIVE ESSENTIALLY A DUE WESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...270/18.
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR DEAN. THEREFORE...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION .. ALSO THE CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS … IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LANDFALL FOR THE CENTRE OF VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN IS NOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W WITH SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 140 KT. NEAR 30 to 50 Miles north of Chetumal
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS THEREFORE RECOMMENDED IMMEDIATE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW LYING AREAS AND THE OUTER ISLANDS AND CAYES TO BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
NEMO IS URGING ALL RESIDENTS OF AMBERGRIS CAYE, SAN PEDRO AND CAYE CAULKER TO COMPLETE THEIR EVACUATION PLANS NOW.
People are starting to become aware on the Belize message board that they might take a serious hit. The main areas where the ex-pats all concentrate are low-lying diving islands on the coast.
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O Town
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He is a very handsome storm.
Check out this QuickTime movie.
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/movie_sml/latest.mov
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Brent
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Advisories & Official Forecast Maps
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC MON AUG 20 2007
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 275SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 81.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 82.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC MON AUG 20 2007
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 275SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 82.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 81.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 85SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 92.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 82.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN -Threat Area -Yucatan Peninsula
Thanks to all, specially to cycloneye. Even though Dean's eye will not be over Cozumel, the local authorities have been issuing tropical storm winds warnings and that we should expect a lot of rain. The major concern is the State's capital city - Chetumal - as floods are expected due to its position right across a large bay. For all who have mentioned the villages over which Dean will make a landfall, the State Government has been evacuating residents since Saturday.
Garcias a todos, especialmente a cycloneye. A pesar de que el ojo de Dean no cruzara sobre Cozumel, las autoridades estan emitiendo advertencias de vientos de tormenta tropical y debemos esperar mucha lluvia. La mayor preocupacion es la capital del estado: Chetumal, ya que se esperan inundaciones debido a su localizacion frente a la bahia. Para aquellos que han mencionado a las poblaciones que se veran afectadas por la llegada de Dean, el gobierno del estado ha evacuado a los residentes desde el sabado.
Garcias a todos, especialmente a cycloneye. A pesar de que el ojo de Dean no cruzara sobre Cozumel, las autoridades estan emitiendo advertencias de vientos de tormenta tropical y debemos esperar mucha lluvia. La mayor preocupacion es la capital del estado: Chetumal, ya que se esperan inundaciones debido a su localizacion frente a la bahia. Para aquellos que han mencionado a las poblaciones que se veran afectadas por la llegada de Dean, el gobierno del estado ha evacuado a los residentes desde el sabado.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 279) Discussions, Analysis
No change in strength this advisory.
Pressure down to 925
Pressure down to 925
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 279) Discussions, Analysis
Looking at the storms structure, the 20-25nm wide eye is breaking down/eroding and there is an enormous 40-55nm wide eye intensifying. By the time this process completes, I suspect the central Yucatan is going to sustain the Atlantic's first category five landfall since Andrew in '92. Only, Dean would eat Andrew for breakfast. The swath of Cat 4 or higher winds in Dean is going to be wider than Andrew's entire swath of hurricane force winds by the time this gets to the Yucatan coastline.
Last edited by Windspeed on Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 279) Discussions, Analysis
Historic hurricane by satellite shot alone.
I can't believe no one is posting the consequences for Belize. The island of Ambergris Caye is a popular diving spot populated by many ex-patriots. The eye is going much closer to them, so far, with a close pass of the southern hurricane core. I expect Dean will pull-up some more onto track, but the ridge could be stronger than expected - which is why it is tracking west, and it is possible the eye could clip Ambergris at category 5. The last big monster for Belize was Hattie in 1961.
Google: "Ambergris Message Board". Look for the "Hurricanes" topic. They are aware, but speculation is banned on that board to avoid panic or misinformation. (as I know personally lol). But, to me, they should allow intelligent estimates for better informativeness.
I can't believe no one is posting the consequences for Belize. The island of Ambergris Caye is a popular diving spot populated by many ex-patriots. The eye is going much closer to them, so far, with a close pass of the southern hurricane core. I expect Dean will pull-up some more onto track, but the ridge could be stronger than expected - which is why it is tracking west, and it is possible the eye could clip Ambergris at category 5. The last big monster for Belize was Hattie in 1961.
Google: "Ambergris Message Board". Look for the "Hurricanes" topic. They are aware, but speculation is banned on that board to avoid panic or misinformation. (as I know personally lol). But, to me, they should allow intelligent estimates for better informativeness.
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DESTRUCTION5
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- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (8 AM page 279) Discussions, Analysis
Sanibel wrote:Historic hurricane by satellite shot alone.
I can't believe no one is posting the consequences for Belize. The island of Ambergris Caye is a popular diving spot populated by many ex-patriots. The eye is going much closer to them, so far, with a close pass of the southern hurricane core. I expect Dean will pull-up some more onto track, but the ridge could be stronger than expected - which is why it is tracking west, and it is possible the eye could clip Ambergris at category 5. The last big monster for Belize was Hattie in 1961.
Google: "Ambergris Message Board". Look for the "Hurricanes" topic. They are aware, but speculation is banned on that board to avoid panic or misinformation. (as I know personally lol). But, to me, they should allow intelligent estimates for better informativeness.
As horrible as this is and as horrible as its gonna be it TRULY IS the BEST case scenario since we HAVE to put dean somewhere...
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Brent
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Advisories & Official Forecast Maps
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
...DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM...
EAST OF BELIZE CITY.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.32 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
...DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE
WARNING SOUTHWARD FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF BELIZE.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...
200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM...
EAST OF BELIZE CITY.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.32 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
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Derek Ortt
this is a terrible track for this to take
1. The feeder bands are going to cause deaths in central America. Gilbert killed many in Guatemala and this is passing a lot closer
2. The final landfall will strike a very heavily populated area AND the entire BOC coastline is going to have a very high tidal surge
1. The feeder bands are going to cause deaths in central America. Gilbert killed many in Guatemala and this is passing a lot closer
2. The final landfall will strike a very heavily populated area AND the entire BOC coastline is going to have a very high tidal surge
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:this is a terrible track for this to take
1. The feeder bands are going to cause deaths in central America. Gilbert killed many in Guatemala and this is passing a lot closer
2. The final landfall will strike a very heavily populated area AND the entire BOC coastline is going to have a very high tidal surge
Pop wise it not even close to the TX coast nor the upper Yuc coast where tourism thrives...BOC will have to hope for weaker storm period..
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Derek Ortt
Tampico has more 300K, the Veracruz metro area has 800K
to be honest, I could not care less about tourism... I care about the number of people that this will actually impact and that number is going to be high. Also, read up on what Hurricane Diana in 1990 did to this area... at 85KT, it was far more deadly than Wilma and also destroyed 75K homes
to be honest, I could not care less about tourism... I care about the number of people that this will actually impact and that number is going to be high. Also, read up on what Hurricane Diana in 1990 did to this area... at 85KT, it was far more deadly than Wilma and also destroyed 75K homes
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