CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201003
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 12 20070820
095300 1758N 07235W 4279 07093 0388 -111 -399 072024 024 999 999 03
095330 1758N 07238W 4278 07093 0387 -111 -393 075023 023 999 999 03
095400 1758N 07241W 4278 07094 0388 -111 -391 076023 023 999 999 03
095430 1758N 07243W 4280 07092 0388 -111 -381 076023 023 999 999 03
095500 1758N 07246W 4278 07094 0388 -111 -397 074024 024 999 999 03
095530 1758N 07249W 4277 07097 0389 -111 -393 073024 025 999 999 03
095600 1758N 07252W 4280 07092 0388 -113 -397 076024 025 999 999 03
095630 1758N 07254W 4278 07094 0388 -115 -355 073025 025 999 999 03
095700 1758N 07257W 4278 07094 0388 -115 -365 075025 026 999 999 03
095730 1758N 07300W 4278 07093 0387 -115 -357 076025 026 999 999 03
095800 1758N 07303W 4279 07092 0387 -115 -349 074027 027 999 999 03
095830 1758N 07305W 4278 07092 0386 -115 -373 073027 027 999 999 03
095900 1758N 07308W 4279 07091 0386 -115 -389 073027 027 999 999 03
095930 1758N 07311W 4278 07091 0385 -115 -341 074027 027 999 999 03
100000 1758N 07313W 4279 07089 0384 -111 -367 074027 027 999 999 03
100030 1758N 07316W 4280 07089 0386 -115 -357 072027 028 999 999 03
100100 1758N 07319W 4282 07086 0386 -115 -367 072028 029 999 999 03
100130 1758N 07322W 4287 07077 0385 -115 -321 073029 029 999 999 03
100200 1758N 07325W 4281 07088 0387 -115 -333 072027 027 999 999 03
100230 1758N 07327W 4270 07108 0388 -115 -347 075027 028 999 999 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201013
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 13 20070820
100300 1758N 07330W 4264 07119 0389 -119 -319 079027 028 999 999 03
100330 1758N 07333W 4257 07132 0390 -121 -273 080025 026 999 999 03
100400 1758N 07336W 4248 07145 0388 -121 -269 080025 026 999 999 03
100430 1758N 07338W 4247 07148 0389 -125 -217 080027 028 999 999 03
100500 1758N 07341W 4269 07106 0385 -121 -241 078028 028 999 999 03
100530 1758N 07344W 4279 07088 0383 -121 -237 078029 029 999 999 03
100600 1758N 07347W 4278 07089 0383 -125 -173 074029 030 999 999 03
100630 1758N 07349W 4278 07089 0383 -129 -169 068028 028 999 999 03
100700 1758N 07352W 4278 07090 0383 -125 -173 066027 028 999 999 03
100730 1758N 07355W 4279 07088 0383 -125 -157 072025 026 999 999 03
100800 1758N 07358W 4280 07087 0383 -125 -155 075025 025 999 999 03
100830 1758N 07401W 4279 07086 0381 -125 -153 079026 027 999 999 03
100900 1758N 07404W 4278 07086 0380 -125 -151 083028 029 999 999 03
100930 1758N 07406W 4279 07085 0380 -125 -149 084030 030 999 999 03
101000 1758N 07409W 4280 07083 0379 -125 -157 083031 032 999 999 03
101030 1758N 07412W 4279 07085 0380 -127 -165 082035 036 999 999 03
101100 1758N 07415W 4276 07090 0380 -127 -147 086031 035 999 999 03
101130 1758N 07417W 4280 07086 0382 -125 -137 086030 031 999 999 03
101200 1758N 07420W 4277 07092 0383 -125 -131 090027 030 999 999 03
101230 1758N 07423W 4278 07089 0383 -125 -135 098026 027 999 999 03
$$

[clfenwi]

I got question did the nhc ever have hurricane boats that went out to do what the recon does nows. In do they still have any to make any trips into a storm like Dean?

After the 1933 season ( in which several storms were 'lost' in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean), the Coast Guard was directed to go out and find storms. After a year or two it was realized how dumb the idea was and their tasking was dropped. I read about this in an old book by Ivan Ray Tannehill entitled 'The Hurricane Hunters'.

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201023
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 14 20070820
101300 1758N 07426W 4278 07092 0385 -127 -155 104022 025 999 999 03
101330 1758N 07429W 4280 07089 0385 -125 -143 104018 020 999 999 03
101400 1758N 07432W 4278 07090 0384 -127 -135 107019 020 999 999 03
101430 1758N 07434W 4280 07089 0385 -127 -129 110017 019 999 999 03
101500 1758N 07437W 4280 07088 0384 -125 -125 113013 013 999 999 03
101530 1758N 07440W 4278 07090 0384 -125 -125 123009 015 999 999 03
101600 1758N 07443W 4280 07085 0382 -129 -137 096009 010 999 999 03
101630 1758N 07445W 4279 07087 0382 -125 -157 093013 014 999 999 03
101700 1758N 07448W 4278 07088 0382 -125 -163 085014 014 999 999 03
101730 1758N 07451W 4278 07089 0383 -123 -179 091015 016 999 999 03
101800 1758N 07453W 4278 07091 0384 -123 -199 098016 017 999 999 03
101830 1758N 07456W 4279 07088 0383 -121 -213 099015 016 999 999 03
101900 1758N 07459W 4278 07089 0383 -121 -227 097014 015 999 999 03
101930 1758N 07501W 4280 07086 0382 -121 -229 097015 015 999 999 03
102000 1757N 07504W 4278 07088 0382 -121 -235 093014 015 999 999 03
102030 1757N 07507W 4278 07087 0381 -121 -237 093015 015 999 999 03
102100 1757N 07509W 4278 07087 0381 -125 -239 090015 015 999 999 03
102130 1757N 07512W 4279 07086 0381 -125 -235 086017 017 999 999 03
102200 1757N 07515W 4278 07087 0381 -125 -241 085018 018 999 999 03
102230 1757N 07518W 4278 07087 0381 -125 -237 084018 018 999 999 03
$$

[vacanechaser]

5am



000
WTNT34 KNHC 200838
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN MOVING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 495 MILES...795
KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES IN
JAMAICA ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9
TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

5am discussion




WTNT44 KNHC 200842
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AGAIN
INDICATED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND SPEED WAS 145 KT WITH AN SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENT OF 125
KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A SURFACE
WIND SPEED OF 133 KT IN THE SAME QUADRANT...BUT BASED ON
LOWER-LAYER AVERAGES FROM THE SONDE...THIS PROBABLY DOES NOT QUITE
CORRESPOND TO A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE SURFACE WIND. BASED ON ALL OF
THESE DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT. DEAN IS MOVING
OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WITH WEAK SHEAR
AND EXHIBITS A CLASSIC UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. DEAN
CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE TRANSIT OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY FOLLOWS THE
INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT
COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL
LANDFALL. THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST AND LANDFALL.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO GIVE
ESSENTIALLY A DUE WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED...270/18. AS A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR DEAN.
THEREFORE...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE GFDL...U.K.
MET...NOGAPS...AND GFS CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACKS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 17.7N 80.7W 130 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 18.1N 83.5W 135 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W 140 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 19.6N 90.5W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/0600Z 20.5N 94.0W 90 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE
72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

[baitism]

Geez, how many EWRC's is Dean going to go through? Something went wrong when he formed. He must be inbred....

[Thunder44]

Geez, how many EWRC's is Dean going to go through? Something went wrong when he formed. He must be inbred....

This is only the second one, it completed that last one just before it pass south of Jamaica. The last plane indicated there was a double eyewall structure. So this one should not take as long as the one. I think Cat 5 is still possible before it hits Yucatan.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201033
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 15 20070820
102300 1757N 07520W 4278 07087 0381 -129 -217 085018 018 999 999 03
102330 1757N 07523W 4279 07086 0381 -123 -241 093018 018 999 999 03
102400 1757N 07526W 4278 07087 0381 -121 -245 095017 018 999 999 03
102430 1757N 07529W 4280 07084 0380 -121 -249 098019 019 999 999 03
102500 1757N 07531W 4278 07088 0382 -121 -249 102019 019 999 999 03
102530 1757N 07534W 4278 07088 0382 -121 -263 105018 019 999 999 03
102600 1757N 07537W 4280 07084 0380 -123 -219 107021 022 999 999 03
102630 1757N 07539W 4278 07089 0382 -123 -171 108021 022 999 999 03
102700 1757N 07542W 4278 07087 0381 -125 -153 101021 022 999 999 03
102730 1757N 07545W 4278 07088 0382 -121 -263 105021 022 999 999 03
102800 1757N 07548W 4279 07086 0381 -125 -261 105023 024 999 999 03
102830 1757N 07550W 4279 07088 0383 -125 -265 106023 025 999 999 03
102900 1757N 07553W 4278 07091 0384 -125 -271 111023 023 999 999 03
102930 1757N 07556W 4278 07089 0383 -125 -281 115023 023 999 999 03
103000 1757N 07559W 4279 07088 0383 -125 -279 114022 023 999 999 03
103030 1757N 07601W 4278 07091 0385 -125 -291 119021 021 999 999 03
103100 1757N 07604W 4278 07088 0382 -125 -273 124020 021 999 999 03
103130 1757N 07607W 4281 07082 0380 -115 -181 127019 022 999 999 03
103200 1756N 07610W 4276 07090 0380 -113 -327 122023 024 999 999 03
103230 1755N 07612W 4277 07088 0379 -117 -433 119023 023 999 999 03
$$

[vacanechaser]

Geez, how many EWRC's is Dean going to go through? Something went wrong when he formed. He must be inbred....

lol... they happen quiet frequently.... just dont remember hearing about them as much... seems they have been in there when they are happening with deano..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

Geez, how many EWRC's is Dean going to go through? Something went wrong when he formed. He must be inbred....

This is only the second one, it completed that last one just before it pass south of Jamaica. The last plane indicated there was a double eyewall structure. So this one should not take as long as the one. I think Cat 5 is still possible before it hits Yucatan.

no doubt.. the warmest water in the basin is still ahead... and not to mention the heat content is at its highest in the basin as well, or pretty close to it

heat content map




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

[PhillyWX]

Geez, how many EWRC's is Dean going to go through? Something went wrong when he formed. He must be inbred....

This is only the second one, it completed that last one just before it pass south of Jamaica. The last plane indicated there was a double eyewall structure. So this one should not take as long as the one. I think Cat 5 is still possible before it hits Yucatan.

I would agree with this. It may be strengthening as it makes landfall if the ERC completes in time. What I don't think will happen is an intensification to Cat 3 or higher once Dean gets into the Bay of Campeche. The continued westward track of Dean, with very little northward movement, suggests to me that it will only have a brief time out in the GOM to restrengthen.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 201043
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 16 20070820
103300 1753N 07611W 4277 07090 0381 -121 -419 125022 023 999 999 03
103330 1751N 07610W 4278 07089 0383 -121 -437 131023 023 999 999 03
103400 1752N 07607W 4280 07086 0382 -117 -419 135021 021 999 999 03
103430 1752N 07605W 4271 07102 0384 -117 -355 137019 020 999 999 03
103500 1752N 07602W 4224 07187 0389 -125 -433 145018 019 999 999 03
103530 1752N 07559W 4163 07296 0395 -133 -415 151017 018 999 999 03
103600 1752N 07557W 4118 07379 0401 -139 -445 152017 018 999 999 03
103630 1752N 07554W 4099 07415 0404 -143 -465 150017 018 999 999 03
103700 1752N 07552W 4098 07420 0407 -141 -453 145016 016 999 999 03
103730 1753N 07549W 4102 07415 0409 -145 -449 142017 017 999 999 03
103800 1753N 07547W 4099 07423 0411 -143 -405 138016 017 999 999 03
103830 1753N 07544W 4100 07421 0411 -141 -449 138015 016 999 999 03
103900 1753N 07541W 4099 07424 0413 -141 -387 135013 015 999 999 03
103930 1753N 07539W 4099 07423 0412 -141 -335 140012 013 999 999 03
104000 1753N 07536W 4099 07426 0414 -141 -321 142011 012 999 999 03
104030 1753N 07533W 4099 07424 0413 -141 -219 143011 012 999 999 03
104100 1754N 07530W 4099 07425 0414 -141 -323 143011 011 999 999 03
104130 1754N 07528W 4100 07424 0414 -141 -279 139011 012 999 999 03
104200 1754N 07525W 4100 07426 0416 -141 -267 132011 011 999 999 03
104230 1754N 07522W 4100 07424 0414 -141 -253 128010 010 999 999 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

Are they heading back?

[HURAKAN]

220
URNT15 KNHC 201113
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 19 20070820
110300 1757N 07333W 4100 07432 0422 -143 -403 089021 021 999 999 03
110330 1757N 07330W 4100 07433 0423 -141 -393 087021 021 999 999 03
110400 1757N 07327W 4100 07433 0423 -145 -373 092020 021 999 999 03
110430 1757N 07325W 4100 07432 0422 -145 -369 095019 019 999 999 03
110500 1757N 07322W 4099 07432 0421 -145 -373 096018 018 999 999 03
110530 1757N 07320W 4099 07433 0422 -145 -381 091018 019 999 999 03
110600 1757N 07317W 4099 07434 0422 -143 -407 092020 020 999 999 03
110630 1757N 07314W 4100 07430 0420 -143 -407 092020 020 999 999 03
110700 1757N 07312W 4099 07432 0421 -145 -415 094021 021 999 999 03
110730 1757N 07309W 4100 07432 0422 -145 -413 095020 021 999 999 03
110800 1757N 07306W 4099 07432 0421 -145 -417 093020 020 999 999 03
110830 1757N 07304W 4100 07430 0421 -145 -401 094019 020 999 999 03
110900 1757N 07301W 4100 07430 0420 -145 -411 093018 018 999 999 03
110930 1757N 07258W 4099 07431 0420 -145 -403 093016 016 999 999 03
111000 1757N 07256W 4100 07431 0421 -145 -395 091016 016 999 999 03
111030 1757N 07253W 4100 07430 0420 -149 -389 089015 015 999 999 03
111100 1757N 07250W 4099 07432 0421 -145 -399 088015 015 999 999 03
111130 1757N 07248W 4099 07432 0421 -147 -407 091014 014 999 999 03
111200 1757N 07245W 4100 07432 0422 -145 -405 087014 014 999 999 03
111230 1757N 07242W 4099 07431 0420 -145 -385 087013 014 999 999 03
$$

They're are going back.