CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Typhoon_Willie]

Also that ull has been retrograding west at the same pace Dean has been going. it is being replaced with high pressure. The same high pressure that is pushing Dean along...

[Normandy]

Should be noted that Dean's eye is expanding a bit.

[bob rulz]

Those boats would have to survive seas that are at least 80 feet in a Category 4+ hurricane...

Hey, an aircraft carrier could do it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Wilma super thread was 282 pages...This is closing fast on it.

Also the system is picking up speed westward like a bat out of heck. I would not be suprized if its going nearly 25 mph by morning. This is its chance today to become the cat5. The eastern part of the eye is warming up the last few frames. Which could be another EWRC. If it go's through another it won't have or will be very close to strengthen into a cat5. Now or never dean.

[Coredesat]

Storm2K disclaimer: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

CTCC disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by any Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, or any official forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.

----------------

Intense Hurricane Dean (04L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #6 - 0700 UTC 20 August 2007

...Dean strengthens a little more as it moves away from Jamaica...

Estimated Position: 17.7°N 79.8°W (confidence good)
Est. Maximum Sustained Winds: 130 knots (150 mph)
Est. Minimum Pressure: 925 hPa
Movement: W at 17 knots

DISCUSSION

Dean (04L) has passed to the south of Jamaica and is on a nearly due west track, passing to the south of the Cayman Islands. Interaction with Jamaica caused eyewall convection on the northern side of the eye to destabilize and weaken somewhat, but that seems to have recovered in the past 4-5 hours. Air Force recon initially found a double eyewall-type structure in an earlier mission, but found only a single eyewall in its most recent mission, which might be due to that disruption. Recon also found at the eyewall appears to be shrinking, which may indicate either an impending eyewall replacement cycle OR rapid intensification; will hold judgment on that.

Central dense overcast seems to be slightly elongated from northwest to southeast, but guessing that this might also be a product of land interaction and high forward speed. Outflow good in all quadrants. Dvorak estimates were T6.0/6.0 from both SAB and TAFB, and 6.1 from CIMSS ADT. Given recon obs of 145 kt flight-level winds, intensity is raised to 130 kt for this forecast.

Model guidance has flip-flopped at 06Z; GFDL/GFDN/GFDT shifts south while BAM guidance shifts north. Most guidance is set on a Yucatan landfall near Cozumel within 48 hours after some intensification. Dean should be back over water by 72 hours, although restrengthening may be very limited depending on its forward speed by then as well as how well it survives the trip across the Yucatan. The forecast track is shifted southward in this forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...17.7°N 79.8°W...130 kt
12 hr...18.1°N 82.2°W...135 kt
24 hr...18.6°N 84.6°W...140 kt
36 hr...19.3°N 86.9°W...140 kt
48 hr...20.0°N 89.3°W...65 kt...inland
72 hr...21.5°N 94.0°W...80 kt...over water

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Dean is picking up speed big time as the subtropical ridge forms and strengthens north of it. I would not at all be suprized if it is going close to 25 mph the next 24-36 hours. It is currently moving westward. The storm has formed reds around its eye and outflow has greatly expanded...It would not take much to make this a cat5 over the next 24 hours. But the core is still unstable and has been going through many EWRC's. I think the DR hurt the system as it was moving south of it...But with the very warm TCHP expect the core to become more stable...I would say 140-145 knot peak is very possible with pressures down to 915 millibars.

As for track,,,I would shift it south. This is likely to it northern Belize...In "may" move into the southern BOC around 19.5 north. I don't see it going above 21 north as it is moving across the BOC. So a landfall below that is very likely.

IF it does move back out over the water I expect it will be a upper cat1 or maybe weak cat2. There is a slight chance it may restrengthen to a major. But there is also a chance this will burry its self inside of Mexico.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Coredesat]

Dean doesn't appear to have sped up or slowed down. The skip in the loop is from the eclipse period (skips from 0415 to 0615).

[HarlequinBoy]

5 AM is out, I do not see any major changes.


Still a monster.

[PhillyWX]

Updated imagery from TWC and ABC in the US: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... ean-4.html

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042007.html

A watch is now needed over to Veracruz and of course warnings for the eastern Yucatan.

One should be expecting a cat 5 landfall in about 24 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042007.html

A watch is now needed over to Veracruz and of course warnings for the eastern Yucatan.

One should be expecting a cat 5 landfall in about 24 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200853
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 05 20070820
084300 1752N 06624W 4283 07061 0362 -141 -375 032023 023 999 999 03
084330 1752N 06627W 4277 07071 0362 -141 -383 031023 023 999 999 03
084400 1752N 06629W 4278 07068 0361 -139 -377 031022 023 999 999 03
084430 1752N 06632W 4279 07067 0362 -139 -373 035023 023 999 999 03
084500 1753N 06635W 4278 07072 0366 -139 -373 035022 022 999 999 03
084530 1753N 06637W 4278 07070 0363 -141 -383 033022 022 999 999 03
084600 1753N 06640W 4279 07066 0361 -141 -371 035022 022 999 999 03
084630 1753N 06643W 4278 07067 0360 -141 -375 034022 022 999 999 03
084700 1753N 06646W 4279 07067 0362 -141 -365 035021 021 999 999 03
084730 1753N 06648W 4278 07068 0362 -141 -367 034020 021 999 999 03
084800 1753N 06651W 4280 07061 0358 -141 -349 033019 020 999 999 03
084830 1753N 06654W 4280 07059 0356 -141 -361 033021 022 999 999 03
084900 1753N 06656W 4278 07060 0354 -143 -363 031021 022 999 999 03
084930 1753N 06659W 4280 07059 0355 -141 -363 034020 020 999 999 03
085000 1753N 06701W 4278 07059 0353 -141 -347 033020 021 999 999 03
085030 1753N 06704W 4279 07054 0349 -141 -341 034020 020 999 999 03
085100 1753N 06707W 4278 07057 0351 -141 -343 034020 020 999 999 03
085130 1754N 06709W 4278 07056 0350 -141 -341 032020 020 999 999 03
085200 1754N 06712W 4280 07052 0348 -141 -337 032021 021 999 999 03
085230 1754N 06714W 4278 07056 0350 -141 -339 030021 021 999 999 03
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200903
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 06 20070820
085300 1754N 06717W 4278 07056 0349 -145 -339 029022 022 999 999 03
085330 1754N 06720W 4279 07052 0347 -145 -335 029022 022 999 999 03
085400 1754N 06722W 4278 07053 0347 -145 -335 030022 022 999 999 03
085430 1754N 06725W 4278 07055 0349 -143 -339 033022 022 999 999 03
085500 1754N 06728W 4278 07059 0353 -145 -341 034023 023 999 999 03
085530 1754N 06730W 4280 07061 0357 -143 -337 035023 024 999 999 03
085600 1754N 06733W 4279 07066 0361 -143 -335 036024 024 999 999 03
085630 1754N 06736W 4279 07066 0361 -141 -337 037024 024 999 999 03
085700 1754N 06738W 4278 07068 0361 -141 -335 036023 023 999 999 03
085730 1754N 06741W 4279 07067 0362 -141 -341 038023 023 999 999 03
085800 1754N 06743W 4279 07066 0361 -141 -337 040022 023 999 999 03
085830 1755N 06746W 4279 07069 0364 -141 -345 041022 023 999 999 03
085900 1755N 06749W 4278 07072 0365 -141 -335 041023 023 999 999 03
085930 1755N 06751W 4279 07072 0367 -141 -343 042023 023 999 999 03
090000 1755N 06754W 4278 07073 0366 -141 -337 041021 022 999 999 03
090030 1755N 06757W 4279 07073 0368 -141 -345 041019 020 999 999 03
090100 1755N 06759W 4278 07073 0367 -145 -341 039019 019 999 999 03
090130 1755N 06802W 4278 07074 0368 -145 -345 034018 018 999 999 03
090200 1755N 06804W 4278 07073 0367 -145 -347 032018 018 999 999 03
090230 1755N 06807W 4278 07074 0368 -145 -347 031018 018 999 999 03
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200913
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 07 20070820
090300 1755N 06810W 4279 07072 0367 -141 -351 033018 018 999 999 03
090330 1755N 06812W 4279 07074 0369 -145 -345 032018 019 999 999 03
090400 1755N 06815W 4279 07075 0370 -145 -327 032019 019 999 999 03
090430 1755N 06817W 4278 07076 0370 -147 -313 031018 018 999 999 03
090500 1755N 06820W 4279 07075 0370 -143 -347 035017 018 999 999 03
090530 1755N 06823W 4279 07075 0370 -141 -361 033017 018 999 999 03
090600 1755N 06825W 4278 07077 0370 -141 -353 032017 017 999 999 03
090630 1756N 06828W 4280 07076 0372 -141 -359 031017 018 999 999 03
090700 1756N 06830W 4278 07078 0372 -141 -355 034017 017 999 999 03
090730 1756N 06833W 4279 07077 0372 -141 -363 034017 018 999 999 03
090800 1756N 06836W 4279 07077 0372 -141 -357 037019 020 999 999 03
090830 1756N 06838W 4278 07078 0372 -139 -357 036020 021 999 999 03
090900 1756N 06841W 4278 07079 0373 -141 -357 034021 021 999 999 03
090930 1756N 06843W 4279 07078 0373 -141 -353 033020 020 999 999 03
091000 1756N 06846W 4277 07080 0372 -141 -361 032020 020 999 999 03
091030 1756N 06848W 4279 07077 0372 -145 -299 030019 019 999 999 03
091100 1756N 06851W 4278 07079 0373 -141 -379 029020 020 999 999 03
091130 1756N 06854W 4280 07077 0373 -139 -345 031019 020 999 999 03
091200 1756N 06856W 4278 07080 0374 -135 -285 034018 019 999 999 03
091230 1756N 06859W 4278 07081 0374 -135 -307 033018 019 999 999 03
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200923
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 08 20070820
091300 1756N 06901W 4279 07080 0375 -137 -301 033019 019 999 999 03
091330 1756N 06904W 4279 07079 0374 -131 -329 039019 019 999 999 03
091400 1756N 06906W 4278 07081 0375 -129 -377 042018 018 999 999 03
091430 1756N 06909W 4278 07082 0376 -129 -389 041019 020 999 999 03
091500 1756N 06912W 4278 07082 0376 -127 -371 039020 020 999 999 03
091530 1756N 06914W 4278 07082 0376 -131 -371 042020 020 999 999 03
091600 1756N 06917W 4278 07079 0373 -131 -381 040020 020 999 999 03
091630 1757N 06920W 4279 07079 0374 -131 -361 040019 019 999 999 03
091700 1757N 06922W 4278 07082 0375 -131 -327 045018 019 999 999 03
091730 1757N 06925W 4279 07080 0375 -131 -343 047017 017 999 999 03
091800 1757N 06928W 4279 07080 0375 -131 -345 044017 017 999 999 03
091830 1757N 06930W 4278 07083 0376 -133 -329 046016 017 999 999 03
091900 1757N 06933W 4278 07081 0375 -133 -333 045017 017 999 999 03
091930 1757N 06936W 4278 07078 0372 -135 -317 044017 017 999 999 03
092000 1757N 06938W 4279 07076 0371 -135 -329 045016 016 999 999 03
092030 1757N 06941W 4278 07079 0373 -135 -353 046016 016 999 999 03
092100 1757N 06943W 4280 07078 0374 -131 -345 045017 017 999 999 03
092130 1757N 06946W 4278 07081 0375 -131 -357 046017 017 999 999 03
092200 1757N 06949W 4280 07078 0374 -133 -353 048017 018 999 999 03
092230 1757N 06951W 4277 07083 0375 -133 -337 047018 019 999 999 03
$$

[Nimbus]

From 5AM NHC advisory:

As a mid- to upper-tropospheric cyclone continues
moving westward over the western Gulf of Mexico...the flow to the
south of a strengthening deep-layer high pressure system over the
southeastern U.S. Will be the dominant steering mechanism for Dean.
Therefore...a westward to west-northwestward motion is likely for
the next couple of days.

The axis of the developing high over the southeast has been drifting NE a little more than I like to see. If Dean was 3 degrees further north I would be worried. The faster western motion is great news for the Caymans. Any change in track should be preceded by a slowdown in forward motion. Currently looks like a troichodal wobble pattern is amplifying, so you can't pay much attention to short term track movements. The 6 hour motion average would have to exceed 280 before the NHC is going to comment.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200933
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 09 20070820
092300 1757N 06954W 4280 07077 0373 -133 -351 048018 018 999 999 03
092330 1757N 06957W 4278 07080 0374 -131 -361 050017 018 999 999 03
092400 1757N 06959W 4279 07080 0375 -131 -353 051018 018 999 999 03
092430 1757N 07002W 4279 07080 0375 -131 -341 049019 019 999 999 03
092500 1757N 07004W 4278 07083 0377 -133 -337 051019 020 999 999 03
092530 1757N 07007W 4278 07083 0377 -131 -339 050017 018 999 999 03
092600 1757N 07010W 4279 07082 0377 -133 -329 050018 019 999 999 03
092630 1757N 07012W 4277 07085 0377 -133 -329 051017 018 999 999 03
092700 1757N 07015W 4280 07081 0377 -133 -331 052018 019 999 999 03
092730 1757N 07018W 4279 07083 0378 -133 -329 053018 018 999 999 03
092800 1757N 07020W 4278 07085 0379 -135 -323 051017 018 999 999 03
092830 1757N 07023W 4278 07086 0380 -135 -319 052018 019 999 999 03
092900 1758N 07026W 4279 07085 0380 -135 -329 052018 019 999 999 03
092930 1758N 07028W 4278 07086 0379 -135 -331 054018 018 999 999 03
093000 1758N 07031W 4278 07086 0380 -135 -335 054017 018 999 999 03
093030 1758N 07033W 4278 07087 0381 -135 -331 054018 018 999 999 03
093100 1758N 07036W 4278 07088 0382 -135 -353 057019 019 999 999 03
093130 1758N 07039W 4278 07088 0382 -135 -347 056019 019 999 999 03
093200 1758N 07041W 4278 07088 0382 -133 -333 059019 020 999 999 03
093230 1758N 07044W 4278 07087 0381 -131 -325 062018 018 999 999 03
$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200943
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 10 20070820
093300 1758N 07047W 4278 07088 0382 -131 -327 061017 017 999 999 03
093330 1758N 07049W 4278 07087 0381 -131 -345 059017 018 999 999 03
093400 1758N 07052W 4279 07086 0381 -131 -329 059017 018 999 999 03
093430 1758N 07055W 4278 07088 0382 -131 -367 059017 017 999 999 03
093500 1758N 07058W 4280 07085 0381 -129 -349 063018 018 999 999 03
093530 1758N 07100W 4278 07089 0382 -131 -351 064018 019 999 999 03
093600 1758N 07103W 4278 07088 0382 -131 -359 062018 018 999 999 03
093630 1758N 07106W 4278 07088 0382 -131 -361 065018 018 999 999 03
093700 1758N 07108W 4279 07087 0382 -131 -343 065017 017 999 999 03
093730 1758N 07111W 4278 07003 0297 -129 -315 070017 018 999 999 03
093800 1758N 07114W 4278 06483 5224 -127 -359 064016 016 999 999 03
093830 1758N 07116W 4280 06449 5254 -131 -347 065020 022 999 999 03
093900 1758N 07119W 4278 06762 0056 -131 -341 068021 022 999 999 03
093930 1758N 07122W 4277 06700 5008 -129 -365 062018 021 999 999 03
094000 1758N 07124W 4279 06599 5106 -129 -359 062019 019 999 999 03
094030 1758N 07127W 4279 06551 5154 -129 -391 062019 020 999 999 03
094100 1758N 07130W 4278 06609 5097 -125 -397 064019 019 999 999 03
094130 1758N 07133W 4278 06805 0099 -125 -393 060020 021 999 999 03
094200 1758N 07135W 4278 06960 0254 -129 -393 062021 022 999 999 03
094230 1758N 07138W 4278 07063 0357 -129 -389 065022 022 999 999 03

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yet another EWRC starting based on the northeast and east eye wall becoming warmer and a moat forming. I'm starting to think that this won't become a cat5.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200953
AF300 1304A DEAN HDOB 11 20070820
094300 1758N 07141W 4279 07070 0365 -129 -389 067021 021 999 999 03
094330 1758N 07143W 4278 07083 0377 -123 -399 068020 021 999 999 03
094400 1758N 07146W 4278 07086 0380 -125 -403 070021 021 999 999 03
094430 1758N 07149W 4278 07087 0381 -127 -395 074021 021 999 999 03
094500 1758N 07152W 4277 07091 0382 -125 -381 074020 021 999 999 03
094530 1758N 07154W 4279 07089 0384 -121 -389 075018 018 999 999 03
094600 1758N 07157W 4278 07091 0385 -121 -415 074019 019 999 999 03
094630 1758N 07200W 4281 07086 0385 -121 -333 071019 019 999 999 03
094700 1758N 07202W 4278 07092 0386 -123 -363 071019 020 999 999 03
094730 1758N 07205W 4279 07091 0386 -125 -341 071021 021 999 999 03
094800 1758N 07208W 4278 07092 0386 -121 -385 074020 020 999 999 03
094830 1758N 07211W 4279 07091 0386 -121 -361 077021 021 999 999 03
094900 1758N 07213W 4278 07091 0385 -121 -407 077021 021 999 999 03
094930 1758N 07216W 4278 07092 0386 -121 -377 074021 022 999 999 03
095000 1758N 07219W 4279 07091 0386 -121 -291 074021 022 999 999 03
095030 1758N 07221W 4279 07092 0387 -121 -285 076022 022 999 999 03
095100 1758N 07224W 4278 07093 0387 -121 -289 076021 021 999 999 03
095130 1758N 07227W 4279 07092 0387 -115 -321 077021 021 999 999 03
095200 1758N 07230W 4278 07093 0387 -115 -329 078022 022 999 999 03
095230 1758N 07232W 4279 07092 0387 -111 -371 078022 022 999 999 03
$$