CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[southerngale]

Please.. stop with saying that the ULL has stalled, unless you can provide proof that it has. It may have slowed down a little the past few hours (and I'm not even sure on that), but the ridge is strong and there's no indication (at this time) that Dean will go anywhere other than where it's projected.

[mgpetre]

From the NHC 11 pm discussion: "The models all agree that the ridge will get even
stronger and move a little westward with Dean...meaning that Dean
will probably move in a rather straight line until final landfall
in Mexico."

That pretty much goes against everything people are saying on this board.

Just remember that those in the minority are probably the most vocal. So don't put too much credance into what we are saying. Stay focused on the models and the NHC predictions if you are using the information to make decisions. Those newest models should be coming out soon. This is an area where more detailed what ifs can play out. I try not to make these speculations in the Analysis thread, but I feel the model thread is a very appropriate place to "air" your disagreements with the models.

[philnyc]

Is it just me, or has the eye continued to cool, and has Dean just taken a wobble west-southwest?

It really does not look healthy right now, although that's just probably the remnants of the inner eyewall clouding the eye.

Hey wxmann_91, it looks quite healthy to me. I think you saw that one frame where the eye "blinked." But that might just have been some passing cirrus that "fooled" the satellite and showed those blue, cooler colors. IMHO, this is passing Jamaica with little deleterious effects. The eye having contracted means strengthening, right? And I believe the latest pressure reading from the Hunters is 926mb. There's nothing like the reall data to tell us what's really going on. I would love to research (if I could ever find the time!) on lower thunderstorm heights in cat 4s and 5s.
As far as Dean goes, it would seem more likely rather than less that this will make cat 5.

[chris_fit]

IMO this talk of the ULL slowing down or what not is poop. The ridge is still strengthening and nudging west, the ULL will have no affect on Dean. Sorry people I disagree with

HEY, I am NOT -removed-, nor would i EVER, EVER, EVER wish a cane on anyone, much less a strong cane. We are just noting what the model sees, and discuss it, It may not turn north, but it is still a possiblity, abit VERY slim.

ou

I know you are not, you live in the Midwest

I was being sarcastic a little bit, but I do find it interesting lots of Texans start really paying attention and questioning etc. etc.

If anything, Dean will "wobble" more north, Texas is 99% in the clear. I do think that the "if the ULL does not move by tomorrow we have a new ballgame" type of thinking is a little out of the ballpark.

[srainhoutx]

IMO this talk of the ULL slowing down or what not is poop. The ridge is still strengthening and nudging west, the ULL will have no affect on Dean. Sorry people I disagree with

After what my family and I went through 2004-2005 living and owning property in Lower FL Keys, I would certainly never wishcast. My family in Houston suffered a great loos with the death of my grandmother during the Rita mess. Understand that some here will not relax until Dean is no longer a threat.

[mf_dolphin]

No you were being rude.

[CrazyC83]

831
URNT15 KNHC 200314
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 28 20070820
030430 1739N 08003W 6967 03136 0046 +080 +080 025056 057 038 003 00
030500 1737N 08003W 6965 03139 0044 +084 +079 022055 055 038 004 00
030530 1735N 08003W 6964 03140 0040 +085 +076 022054 055 038 003 00
030600 1733N 08003W 6969 03133 0040 +085 +073 020052 052 036 003 00
030630 1730N 08003W 6965 03138 0041 +085 +078 020053 054 034 003 03
030700 1728N 08002W 6967 03134 0041 +083 +080 017051 052 035 002 00
030730 1726N 08002W 6967 03134 0040 +084 +078 015048 049 035 003 00
030800 1724N 08001W 6965 03134 0037 +085 +078 015049 049 036 003 00
030830 1722N 08000W 6966 03134 0037 +085 +084 009049 050 036 003 00
030900 1720N 07959W 6970 03129 0037 +085 +083 008048 049 037 002 00
030930 1719N 07958W 6973 03124 0035 +085 +080 007049 049 037 003 00
031000 1717N 07958W 6967 03133 0035 +085 +081 005048 049 036 003 00
031030 1715N 07957W 6962 03134 0028 +088 +080 002047 047 037 003 00
031100 1713N 07956W 6969 03124 0022 +093 +078 359044 044 037 003 00
031130 1711N 07955W 6965 03129 0024 +086 +085 358043 044 038 003 00
031200 1709N 07954W 6966 03123 0025 +085 +085 000047 049 999 999 03
031230 1707N 07955W 6971 03122 0026 +087 +083 358047 047 037 004 00
031300 1705N 07956W 6965 03127 0019 +093 +074 355048 049 040 004 03
031330 1703N 07957W 6967 03128 0019 +095 +073 356047 048 039 004 00
031400 1701N 07958W 6968 03129 0020 +094 +078 352047 048 032 004 00
$$

[JTD]

Please.. stop with saying that the ULL has stalled, unless you can provide proof that it has. It may have slowed down a little the past few hours (and I'm not even sure on that), but the ridge is strong and there's no indication (at this time) that Dean will go anywhere other than where it's projected.

Very true SG.

Also, fellow posters, check out the 11 p.m. NHC 5 day forecast track. Texas IS NOT EVEN IN THE CONE of uncertainty. Think about it guys. What was the last hurricane that you can think of that actually hit outside of the entire cone? It'd be unprecedented.

[wxmann_91]

IMO this talk of the ULL slowing down or what not is poop. The ridge is still strengthening and nudging west, the ULL will have no affect on Dean. Sorry people I disagree with

I do not see this as -removed-....this is a MB that is dedicated to have people discuss the weather...they are posting for discussion sake....I think that the term -removed- is overused!!

If a storm was heading towards TX, and model agreement was superior and consistent, but something brought uncertainty to that track, and instead could signal a possible Mexico landfall, would there be as much discussion on that uncertainty? -removed- is inherent in all of us.

A couple of notes:
-All who track here 12 hr a day at least, in the past 2 days, are people I disagree with. Face it. We wouldn't spend a lot of time tracking something if we did not care. A lot of the time we ourselves are not aware of our Freudian tendencies.
-The post is not implying a TX threat. Most of TX is in the all-clear, IMO. I've never seen models shift hugely within the 96 hr window when the steering flow has been so consistent and strong.

[CronkPSU]

What was the last hurricane that you can think of that actually hit outside of the entire cone? It'd be unprecedented.

oh boy, you just opened up a big ole can of worms...INCOMING

[cycloneye]

Go to talking Tropics forum and read what the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook just released has to say about a possible new Cyclone in the Atlantic.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The eye is clearing out again, in reds are starting to wrap. Should start strengthing now that it is in super hot TCHP.

[artist]

that is not true at all. Have you ever been in one? If you haven't then you don't know the fear a track change can bring to you. You want all the lead time you can get. I thought better of you wxmann91.

[imetrice]

If that new track verifies, that would mean a break for the Cayman Islands and Cancun....But then isn't Cantore in Cancun? Of course Cancun is safe.

Don't forget Jim Cantore was in Gulfport, MS at the Armed Foreces Retirement Home riding out Katrina on the third floor because the water rose so high.

We fear Jom Cantore.

Oh, I did forget that somehow ...would like to forget everything about Katrina and Rita but there is always something more to learn. The fear keeps me watching, the curiosity keeps me riveted.

[jhamps10]

Please.. stop with saying that the ULL has stalled, unless you can provide proof that it has. It may have slowed down a little the past few hours (and I'm not even sure on that), but the ridge is strong and there's no indication (at this time) that Dean will go anywhere other than where it's projected.

Very true SG.

Also, fellow posters, check out the 11 p.m. NHC 5 day forecast track. Texas IS NOT EVEN IN THE CONE of uncertainty. Think about it guys. What was the last hurricane that you can think of that actually hit outside of the entire cone? It'd be unprecedented.

KATRINA abit very close to the cone, Rita, humm need anymore............

[CrazyC83]

946
URNT15 KNHC 200324
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 29 20070820
031430 1659N 07959W 6969 03128 0028 +088 +084 351045 046 032 004 00
031500 1657N 08000W 6964 03133 0026 +090 +078 353044 045 031 004 00
031530 1656N 08001W 6967 03131 0024 +095 +064 353044 045 031 002 00
031600 1654N 08003W 6964 03135 0023 +095 +069 354045 046 030 003 00
031630 1652N 08004W 6970 03129 0032 +090 +079 353043 045 030 003 00
031700 1650N 08004W 6963 03139 0026 +094 +074 349038 038 999 999 03
031730 1648N 08003W 6968 03139 0027 +097 +069 344037 038 033 003 03
031800 1647N 08002W 6968 03134 0024 +098 +070 340036 036 033 003 00
031830 1645N 08000W 6966 03134 0021 +098 +068 338036 037 032 003 00
031900 1644N 07959W 6966 03130 0018 +100 +069 335037 038 034 003 00
031930 1642N 07957W 6970 03124 0017 +100 +069 333038 039 032 003 03
032000 1642N 07955W 6964 03130 0013 +097 +071 335036 038 999 999 03
032030 1643N 07954W 6972 03119 0020 +093 +078 335033 034 034 002 00
032100 1644N 07953W 6968 03124 0018 +094 +077 338035 035 032 003 00
032130 1646N 07952W 6963 03126 0016 +093 +070 340035 035 032 003 00
032200 1647N 07950W 6969 03119 0016 +091 +077 340037 039 032 002 00
032230 1648N 07949W 6965 03123 0017 +090 +083 344040 042 033 002 00
032300 1649N 07948W 6964 03120 0014 +090 +084 340042 043 032 003 00
032330 1650N 07946W 6965 03114 0009 +090 +077 337040 041 032 004 00
032400 1651N 07945W 6968 03109 0005 +089 +082 341038 038 031 003 00
$$

[Ed Mahmoud]

NHC and GFS have nailed this storm pretty much 4 days running. There is no sign of anything near Texas on any reliable model for over a day.


BTW, since Jerry (and barely a Cat 1 at that) is only Texas October hurricane in six decades, about 5 more weeks and its all good.

[HURAKAN]

[mf_dolphin]

Also, fellow posters, check out the 11 p.m. NHC 5 day forecast track. Texas IS NOT EVEN IN THE CONE of uncertainty. Think about it guys. What was the last hurricane that you can think of that actually hit outside of the entire cone? It'd be unprecedented.

While I agree that Texas is pretty well off the menu your point is invalid. I can show you plenty of cases where the 5 day cone shifted by more than distance than we're talking about here. I think the average 5 day error is over 300 miles.

[wxmann_91]

Is it just me, or has the eye continued to cool, and has Dean just taken a wobble west-southwest?

It really does not look healthy right now, although that's just probably the remnants of the inner eyewall clouding the eye.

Hey wxmann_91, it looks quite healthy to me. I think you saw that one frame where the eye "blinked." But that might just have been some passing cirrus that "fooled" the satellite and showed those blue, cooler colors. IMHO, this is passing Jamaica with little deleterious effects. The eye having contracted means strengthening, right? And I believe the latest pressure reading from the Hunters is 926mb. There's nothing like the reall data to tell us what's really going on. I would love to research (if I could ever find the time!) on lower thunderstorm heights in cat 4s and 5s.
As far as Dean goes, it would seem more likely rather than less that this will make cat 5.

Hey Phil! Long time no see. It would be interesting to see the cloud tops of the top storms in the record... seems like a good research project. Dean's got 36 hours, so it probably will reach Cat 5, but actually releasing a public forecast with 140/150 kt winds prognosticated? I don't think I would be gutsy enough to do that right now.

And yes, the eye has cooled back down again.

Please.. stop with saying that the ULL has stalled, unless you can provide proof that it has. It may have slowed down a little the past few hours (and I'm not even sure on that), but the ridge is strong and there's no indication (at this time) that Dean will go anywhere other than where it's projected.

Very true SG.

Also, fellow posters, check out the 11 p.m. NHC 5 day forecast track. Texas IS NOT EVEN IN THE CONE of uncertainty. Think about it guys. What was the last hurricane that you can think of that actually hit outside of the entire cone? It'd be unprecedented.

Hurricanes hit outside the cone quite often. Just not when the pattern is as predictable as it is now. Wait for one that is stalled, or one that is one the verge of recurve/bend back to west. Those give a LOT of headaches.