Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Luis, no 18Z tropical model runs yet?

Nope.I dont know is is related but if you go to NRL,the pics and other products there are not updated as there was an outage.Or maybe that are waiting for a definite direction of the low.

[Typhoon_Willie]

We will see...maybe it will get sheared. ONly time will tell.

[ronjon]

Luis, they are on the CSU site. I can't seem to post the image though.

[Brent]

Wake me when it's a decent storm that's not gonna get sheared to death...

[cycloneye]

I have breaking news:

A mudslide has just occured in center Puerto Rico killing two people that were driving a pickup van.It happened in the town of Aibonito.If more information comes,I will post it.

[Vortex]

Cyclone,

You folks in the islands are going to have a very significant weather event unfolding Tonight-Saturday. I hope those in flood-prone areas are taking the necessary action to protect life and property. Please keep us posted....

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 252110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WHICH WOULD BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

RL3AO,how will you rank this TWO?

[RL3AO]

It is yellow, orange, or red on my scale...not sure which.

[Fego]

Cycloneye, folks, two brothers were killed by a rock (mudslide) in Aibonito (near center of Puerto Rico). Other two people survived with injuries. Police said that early morning rain caused the mudslide.

[BigA]

I wonder if the Caribbean would be more favorable to development than north of the islands where it is now.

[msbee]

I am so sorry to hear that 2 people were killed in PR.
we are getting it now.. white out conditions.. we will definitely have some flooding from this.
and right at rush hour too. Traffic will be horrendous.

[wxman57]

Luis, they are on the CSU site. I can't seem to post the image though.

CSU may not allow such linking. Here's the plot:

[Derek Ortt]

looks like some anti-cyclonic flow is building over the eastern semi-circle.

one thing to watch for, there is a large UL east of the developing cyclone, and a second forming to the NW, which is also moving west. between the two, some ridging could ocur, providing slightly more favorable environmental conditions

Regarless, this is likely a major flooding threat

[AJC3]

I wonder if the Caribbean would be more favorable to development than north of the islands where it is now.

Slightly less hostile would probably be more apropos to say at the moment, since there are fairly strong southerly winds (20-40kt) in the western half of the Caribbean, and westerly winds running pretty close to 20 kt in the eastern half of the Caribbean.

That having been said, pretty much all the global models are showing winds slackening off significantly over the Caribbean over the next couple days. Whether that actually comes to pass may be another matter, since both the initialization and 6-hour forecast panels of the H25 wind progs are quite a bit too low in that region, compared to the water vapor derived winds.

[Fego]

Looks like models like P.R.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks in the NE Caribbean.We now can post all about observations,any event that occurs in your area in the invest 90L threat thread at the top of forum.Lets leave this thread for the pro mets to post their observations about the system,and any comments that the members outside the Caribbean can make.

[cycloneye]

You can see in the radar loop the low just NE of St Thomas.

[cycloneye]

A question to any of the pro mets:

Any of you think that a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement may be released soon?

[bvigal]

Well, I can understand NHC not too concerned with development, with all that shear. But from the wording on 5:30TWO and also http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif
updated 5pm, it doesn't make sense they would stop running models. Maybe a "season over!" syndrome?

..edit: Or is it because the GFDL dissipated it at 12z today?

[wxman57]

Well, I can understand NHC not too concerned with development, with all that shear. But from the wording on 5:30TWO and also http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif
updated 5pm, it doesn't make sense they would stop running models. Maybe a "season over!" syndrome?

..edit: Or is it because the GFDL dissipated it at 12z today?

They were running the models at 18Z. For some reason the models didn't get transmitted the normal route. I didn't get them in my email like I usually do, nor were they posted online where they should have been.