Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[HurricaneRobert]

I think 91L will be Humberto and this will be nothing. Since 1990 every storm that begins with 'I' has been a hurricane.

I'm a bit confused, how does the "I" part relate to the Humberto portion of this statement? Or just to separate observations/thoughts? I tend to agree that 90L probably won't get a name, although it like 99L was a great invest and fun to watch for us on the gulf coast... here's to hoping for no massive flooding...

Uh, because I don't think it will be the next named storm, and if it's the one after that (Ingrid), I don't think it will be a hurricane.

[mattpetre]

I think 91L will be Humberto and this will be nothing. Since 1990 every storm that begins with 'I' has been a hurricane.

I'm a bit confused, how does the "I" part relate to the Humberto portion of this statement? Or just to separate observations/thoughts? I tend to agree that 90L probably won't get a name, although it like 99L was a great invest and fun to watch for us on the gulf coast... here's to hoping for no massive flooding...

Uh, because I don't think it will be the next named storm, and if it's the one after that (Ingrid), I don't think it will be a hurricane.

Sorry, just wasn't following the logic... makes sense now. I figure 90L will be gone by Thursday so probably before 91L does get a name... but you never know, sure isn't moving anywhere right now.

[Ptarmigan]

If 90L does form, it could be like Allison, Erin, or Frances. They were tropical storms that formed close to shore and made landfall has heavy rain events.

[Stratosphere747]

There appears to be a decent looking circulation to the east of Corpus with a bit of convection firing up. Does look to be little or no movement.

Corpus must of checked S2K before issuing a quick update to get some independent conformation...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.UPDATE...RADAR MOSAIC SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE WEAK CIRCULATION 150
MILES EAST OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE
COLD FRONT TO SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED POPS AND
SHIFTED THE HIGHEST POPS FURTHER EAST AS THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING
WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS OVER THE WATERS
AND COASTAL COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONT. MADE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like something could be finally taking hold. Easy to see some sort of circulation from all three coastal long range radars, and even Lake Charles - And yes nothing like using long range radar... Could be deceiving, but looks like this might be a start.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like something could be finally taking hold. Easy to see some sort of circulation from all three coastal long range radars, and even Lake Charles - And yes nothing like using long range radar... Could be deceiving, but looks like this might be a start.

Links please, thanks!

[Normandy]

Looking at this im HIHGLY unimpressed. Formation of a TD isn't very likely at this moment.

However, rains could be a problem...as they have been all summer. Allison was a weak TS and produced some intense rain as it came ashore.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like something could be finally taking hold. Easy to see some sort of circulation from all three coastal long range radars, and even Lake Charles - And yes nothing like using long range radar... Could be deceiving, but looks like this might be a start.

Links please, thanks!

Use all the local radars Storm - http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Brownsville, Corpus, Houston and even Lake Charles.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at this im HIHGLY unimpressed. Formation of a TD isn't very likely at this moment.

However, rains could be a problem...as they have been all summer. Allison was a weak TS and produced some intense rain as it came ashore.

Well you are looking at a satellite image/loop that is several hours old now when convection
was just starting to refire. In addition this 'may" not be going anywhere fast so it may have
time to organize so don't sell in short just yet.

[HouTXmetro]

Do you think the low is working it's way to the surface?

[Stormcenter]

Do you think the low is working it's way to the surface?

It's hard to tell right now without any data but radar does look impressive compared to earlier.

[Stratosphere747]

lf Normandy was using satellite, than no doubt it looked highly unimpressive. The radars are not in the eclipse and at least in my amateur eyes are becoming impressive with each loop.

Still could be deceiving....

[HouTXmetro]

The IR satellite looks HORRIBLE.... are in the midst of an eclipse because I barely see any convection.

[Stormcenter]

There are some pretty decent winds out there (W.GOM)right now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=fgbl1

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

[Stratosphere747]

The IR satellite looks HORRIBLE.... are in the midst of an eclipse because I barely see any convection.

All the satellites look "horrible." The latest convection that has just started to pop on the local radars just started a little over an hour ago.

[HouTXmetro]

thanks, I was just wondering what you guys were seeing..

[HouTXmetro]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Developing squall about to scrape the Upper TX Coast... And IT BEGINS

[Normandy]

Ahhhhh....I thought the eclipse started at 415Z.

Looked at the radar, my tune really hasn't changed much. From what i can TELL there seems to be many different vorticies rotating inside a VERY broad circulation....not very developed at the moment.

That being said, Im more impressed now than I was when i saw those sat images.

[srainhoutx]

Radar links

HOU/GAL

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Corpus Christi

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Brownsville

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Lake Charles

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Will note that pressures are still faily high at this time...


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

[vbhoutex]

A broad low has formed over the Western GOM and that is made obvious by the above radar loops run on the long range. As the system moves WNW to NW towards the TX coast and interacts with the front stalled near the coast we can look for copious tropical rains from this combination, especially along the middle and upper TX coast. I hope it does not start move West close to the coast and then start a more Northerly movement and basically ride up the coast along the front(whatever may develop out there).

From Jeff:

Area of low pressure forms over the western Gulf of Mexico.



Parameters coming together for heavy rains over SE TX.



Discussion:



Slow moving weak boundary currently entering the N part of SE TX while tropical feature has developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. Boundary to the N will sag southward today acting as a lifting focus for thunderstorm development. This boundary should stall out along the I-10 corridor tonight and remain over the area through Friday.



Per NHC and HPC discussions on tropical low over the western Gulf…some slow development of this system is possible as it moves toward the lower TX coast. IR images along with surface data support a broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles S of Galveston or about 180 miles E of Brownsville. This low is drifting toward the WNW at around 5-10mph. Upper air conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development over the next 12-24 hours as the system approaches the TX coast. GFS has joined the CMC, UKMET, and NAM and is now closing the system off into a closed low. GFS stalls the feature along the middle TX coast Wednesday night into late Thursday as steering flow collapses. We shall see what the first visible images show this morning. Point should be made that regardless if it develops or not lots of moisture will be thrown into SE TX on the NE side of the circulation center.



Stalling frontal boundary will combine with deep tropical moisture moving northward from tropical low to produce excessive heavy rains along coastal TX. Boundary has had no problem producing 4-8 inch amounts over OK and N TX without deep tropical tap the last two days. Feel HPC guidance is grossly underestimating the rainfall potential given slow storm motion and nearly saturated air column. Should Gulf low spin up into a better defined tropical system rainfall patterns will concentrate along and well NE of the low center…similar to Erin. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches widespread with isolated amounts upwards of 8 inches will be possible through Thursday.



As always when dealing with potential tropical developments the forecast will be subject to large changes.