Invest 90L SE GOM: Discussions & Images

[Sanibel]

I'm still waiting for something definite to form from this.

[jaxfladude]

Just up on NRL.

It is dead, next...

[Ptarmigan]

Computer models got it wrong in the past. I remember when Allison formed in 2001, it was never forecasted to happen. In fact conditions were not favorable for development.

[lrak]

it seems that each satellite loop from that NASA site makes it look much more organized. I said to myself if this were a thousand miles out in the Atlantic we would really have something to worry about.

[lrak]

how old is that photo?

[cycloneye]

That is from 10:40 PM EDT last night.

[Ivanhater]

CMC sends 90L north to Mobile Pensacola area FWIW

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE S GULF IS VERY ACTIVE TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO FORT
MYERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26N84W 26N87W TO 24N91W.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE S GULF
NEAR 22N91W AND IS BEING MONITORED BUT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Same song.

[cycloneye]

09/1745 UTC 24.7N 88.8W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Surprise,surprise,this is almost a TD.

[Brent]

Hmmmmm, it's got more convection now. Still disorganized but it does look better.

[ROCK]

09/1745 UTC 24.7N 88.8W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Surprise,surprise,this is almost a TD.

are those raw T#'s?

[RL3AO]

This could be a really really busy week. For us, the NHC and the Hunters.

[ROCK]

looking at the vis and can't understand why this has T#'s that high...if anything it should be to weak...maybe they got mixed up with all the invests....I am looking at the vis and see nothing remotely at the surface....has good upper air divergence but no low level convergence....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[mattpetre]

I'm not surprised this is close to finally being a depression and I still believe we will see a landfalling minimal hurricane with this. The conditions will become much more favorable for this as it goes from troughiness to concentrated surface low, which I very much think will happen by tomorrow midday at the latest. Still a lot of SWAGgering here though.

[cycloneye]

Maybe one of our resident pro mets can chim in about the dvorak T numbers for this system being at 1.5/1.5,distint from what looks in images.

[mattpetre]

looking at the vis and can't understand why this has T#'s that high...if anything it should be to weak...maybe they got mixed up with all the invests....I am looking at the vis and see nothing remotely at the surface....has good upper air divergence but no low level convergence....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

I disagree in that from the visibles before this began to pop again there was some convergence going on just north of the Yucatan. I think it was very localized, but seemed to be maintaining something at the lower levels for almost 24 hours now.

[RL3AO]

Don't get too excited from those T#'s. It is not that close to being a depression.

[Brent]

Don't get too excited from those T#'s. It is not that close to being a depression.

Agreed, I think 91L and 92L will be depression's before this is.

[srainhoutx]

Although T#'s are still a bit low, the area has persisted and condition are becoming a bit more favorable as ULL to SW quickly moves away and the slow NW movement the past 24 hours. Consider the threat area from a NHC/TPC view point. Lots of leases to be concerned about and potential Gulf Coast threat in a couple of days. Just a thought.

[ROCK]

looking at the vis and can't understand why this has T#'s that high...if anything it should be to weak...maybe they got mixed up with all the invests....I am looking at the vis and see nothing remotely at the surface....has good upper air divergence but no low level convergence....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

I disagree in that from the visibles before this began to pop again there was some convergence going on just north of the Yucatan. I think it was very localized, but seemed to be maintaining something at the lower levels for almost 24 hours now.

Matt, I guess we agree to disagree... but if you look at the last Qscat (decending pass) not much of any surface reflection going on except maybe off the Cuba west coast. This is backed up by the CIMSS low level convergance map......the area in question has good upper air divergence but is lacking surface support....