Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE CENTERED NEAR
31N79W...ESTIMATED TO BE 1013 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION WITH LOW-LEVEL TURNING
EASILY APPARENT. AT THE MOMENT...THIS LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT
FRONTAL IN NATURE WITH A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS LINEARLY SHAPED TO
THE E OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
MOSTLY TO THE E OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

wow one of the models has it dipping as far south as west palm....interesting

link? which model? the consensus seems to favor North Carolina right?

Cycloneeye posted this is the models section....was just answering your post
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 29.1N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2007 29.1N 71.6W WEAK

00UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2007 27.1N 72.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2007 27.0N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2007 27.2N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2007 27.3N 76.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2007 27.6N 77.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2007 28.0N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

I didnt saw the UKMET posted so here it is.

UKMET wants to do a Jeanne (w/o loop)...takes it to west palm beach.
GFS took it near the carolinas

Looks like we got a jeanne versus ophelia scenario...

[jimvb]

Someone said this reminds him of Ophelia back in 2004. I think it also resembles Dean and Felix. Dean 1983 and Felix 1995, that is. I remember hearing Dean going out to sea in 1983, then I heard from the weather radio that it was headed back to the west, and thought it was strange.

[jhamps10]

Cycloneeye posted this is the models section....was just answering your post
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 29.1N 71.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2007 29.1N 71.6W WEAK

00UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2007 27.1N 72.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2007 27.0N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2007 27.2N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2007 27.3N 76.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2007 27.6N 77.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2007 28.0N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

I didnt saw the UKMET posted so here it is.

UKMET wants to do a Jeanne (w/o loop)...takes it to west palm beach.
GFS took it near the carolinas

Looks like we got a jeanne versus ophelia scenario...

Humm UKMET would most likely ruin some folks weekend plans on the S central East coast of Florida. also, just wondering, and not even wanting this to happen at all, as we all know what the GOM can do right now, but should this follow the ukmet idea, wouldn't it be very possible for it to go across florida and have it splashdown in the GOM?

[Blown Away]

I can't think of any storm that developed east of FL and north of 30N that came back down south to affect SFL.

[HURAKAN]

I can't think of any storm that developed east of FL and north of 30N that came back down south to affect SFL.

GET THIS!!!

[AJC3]

I can't think of any storm that developed east of FL and north of 30N that came back down south to affect SFL.

GET THIS!!!

<image deleted>

That's the infamous "Yankee Storm" if I'm not mistaken.

[Cyclone1]

Check the era of 1911 - 1913, I belive there were several storms like that, though I'm not sure.

[wzrgirl1]

wondering if south florida has anything to worry about....probably won't dip this far down as the high pressure might be retreating slightly by the end of the week

[jimvb]

Didn't Betsy form in the Atlantic and move to the north, then take a curlycue to the southwest and hit southern Florida?

[jhamps10]

wondering if south florida has anything to worry about....probably won't dip this far down as the high pressure might be retreating slightly by the end of the week

very little to worry about, but one of the bam models takes it to Daytona, or just a bit south of it across the coast and coming out into the gulf near ceadar key.

[wzrgirl1]

wondering if south florida has anything to worry about....probably won't dip this far down as the high pressure might be retreating slightly by the end of the week

very little to worry about, but one of the bam models takes it to Daytona, or just a bit south of it across the coast and coming out into the gulf near ceadar key.

hope you are right....they have a tendency to sneak up on us sometimes

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is a chance this could get into
the gulf if ukmet verifies...so GOM residents
should keep an eye on it.

Now this scenario is NOT likely,
but possible.

[wzrgirl1]

There is a chance this could get into
the gulf if ukmet verifies...so GOM residents
should keep an eye on it.

Now this scenario is NOT likely,
but possible.

why not likely? because of the steering currents??

[cpdaman]

everyone from the keys to the NE and into the GOM should watch this system, just incase

[jhamps10]

Didn't Betsy form in the Atlantic and move to the north, then take a curlycue to the southwest and hit southern Florida?

yeah kinda,sorta:

[artist]

wondering if south florida has anything to worry about....probably won't dip this far down as the high pressure might be retreating slightly by the end of the week

very little to worry about, but one of the bam models takes it to Daytona, or just a bit south of it across the coast and coming out into the gulf near ceadar key.

bamm models are not good except in the deep tropics - in other words over near Africa, etc.

Being off the coast of Florida is not the deep tropics so the bamm models are not really worth looking at this close in.

[Blown Away]

I can't think of any storm that developed east of FL and north of 30N that came back down south to affect SFL.

GET THIS!!!

Good One! I guess that is proof anything can happen. Jeanne & Betsy did loops but they were already hurricanes before making to 30N

[jhamps10]

wondering if south florida has anything to worry about....probably won't dip this far down as the high pressure might be retreating slightly by the end of the week

very little to worry about, but one of the bam models takes it to Daytona, or just a bit south of it across the coast and coming out into the gulf near ceadar key.

bamm models are not good except in the deep tropics - in other words over near Africa, etc.

Being off the coast of Florida is not the deep tropics so the bamm models are not really worth looking at this close in.

yes, however BAMM has backup from UKMET. what you going to say now, UKMET is bad at developing systems???? had it no backup from UKMET, and from FSU's model I wouldn't have even meantioned it in here.


I was just kidding BTW.

[artist]

if you are speaking of the FSU mm5 - well, what can I say!