Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

138 hours

Well inside Yucatan.

[skysummit]

500mb @ H138

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I would find it very unusual for this storm to make it due west maybe wnw its entire life for this time of year. But who knows. the gulf has been dominated this summer by high pressure. I guess it will end sometime.

[destruction92]

500mb @ H114

Looks like the western end of the ridge is eroding - another weakness over Alabama. We'll have to monitor these trends toward the later period around 5 days. Could be some adjustments to the NW in the next few days.

Don't expect any turns to the North or Northeast though. The days of Charley and Donna are well gone. Now it may be Texas's turn.

[skysummit]

Well, according to this run, if the storm is stronger than anticipated, or any further north than anticipated, we may be looking at a whole other ball game.

[cycloneye]

150 hours

It emerges into the extreme southern BOC.

[jasons2k]

I think this has a better chance of turning right than Dean ever did....and at one point (Friday before LF) I seriously expected Dean to turn right.

[skysummit]

500mb @ H150

[cycloneye]

168 hours

Still in the extreme southern BOC.

[skysummit]

500mb @ H-168

[cycloneye]

192 hours

Makes Second Landfall near Veracruz.

Off topic,Holy cow!!,what do I see to the right?

[Stratosphere747]

The mother of all storms...

[jlauderdal]

I would find it very unusual for this storm to make it due west maybe wnw its entire life for this time of year. But who knows. the gulf has been dominated this summer by high pressure. I guess it will end sometime.

u have a short memory DEAN

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting run here. It would be amazing if the GFS nails this one this far out like it did with Dean. I'm actually a little more concerned about a US threat after seeing this run, I was thinking the GFS would track TD 6 much more sout than this.

[skysummit]

500mb @ H-192

....the end of the world is coming behind TD6 on this run.

[jaxfladude]

Q: Are the SST's in the projected track(as of now) able to sustain a hurricane of a Cat. 3 or higher?
A:------------------

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would find it very unusual for this storm to make it due west maybe wnw its entire life for this time of year. But who knows. the gulf has been dominated this summer by high pressure. I guess it will end sometime.

u have a short memory DEAN

Well, to be fair, Dean was a mid August storm and Felix is going to be an early September storm. That is a pretty good time difference (over 2 weeks). Storms are typically less likely to travel due west in September.

[cycloneye]

For those who want to follow the GFS run we will continue here in talking tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96769&start=0

[ronjon]

We'll have to watch the evolution of that central US trough at 132 hrs - if its sharper than it could affect Felix in the western caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_132s.gif

[jlauderdal]

I would find it very unusual for this storm to make it due west maybe wnw its entire life for this time of year. But who knows. the gulf has been dominated this summer by high pressure. I guess it will end sometime.

u have a short memory DEAN

Well, to be fair, Dean was a mid August storm and Felix is going to be an early September storm. That is a pretty good time difference (over 2 weeks). Storms are typically less likely to travel due west in September.

its unusual for a storm to travel that far west for that long at that speed and intensify like it it did and hold together anytime of the year, it was unusual. this ridge really has the EC of Florida in its grip, rain has been next to nil and its hot and windy, anyone see those naples temps the last few weeks, try 98 degrees.