Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[jhamps10]

This only has 900 miles between the convection and the US mainland in Florida, and I'm being pretty liberal on that point.

???

More than 2000 miles.

dang you got me, of course you'd know better living in Florida. I really should drink a cup of coffee before coming on here in the morning.

[gatorcane]

You can see the low level clouds between Florida and this invest streaming very quickly towards Florida -- that is the direction I think it will move. Whether it develops and/or impacts Florida is still a question....

Deep easterlies are now entrenched across Florida and the western Atlantic....

Most winds are E at 15-25mph across the east coast of Florida (Dean is increasing the pressure gradient also). It's very "tropical-like" now here in South Florida with passing cumulous off the Gulf stream moving rapidly across the Everglades...we haven't seen this all summer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[storms in NC]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

Why is that?

Because it would hit land before it would have the time to build. You are looking at 73-76 hours to land

[x-y-no]

I'd watch the southern part of 92L...an anticyclone looks to be attempting to build over head.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Yeah, there's a decent anticyclone forming and quite strong upper divergence. Don't think there's any major upper-air obstacle to development.

The question will be whether it can close off a surface low.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

hmmm....development likely
with favorable conditions...where it goes:
somewhere between carolina and key west...
I won't get more specific because it is too hard for
me to predict tracks.

[storms in NC]

I'd watch the southern part of 92L...an anticyclone looks to be attempting to build over head.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Yeah, there's a decent anticyclone forming and quite strong upper divergence. Don't think there's any major upper-air obstacle to development.

The question will be whether it can close off a surface low.

True

[gatorcane]

I'd watch the southern part of 92L...an anticyclone looks to be attempting to build over head.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Yeah, there's a decent anticyclone forming and quite strong upper divergence. Don't think there's any major upper-air obstacle to development.

The question will be whether it can close off a surface low.

Yes, and also think of storms like Andrew and the FL Keys Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. They bombed out nearly in 1-2 days once conditions became favorable.....in the area that this invest is moving into

[hurricanefloyd5]

Chances of this thing becoming FELIX is what???AnyBody?????if this becomes Felix then may a Hurricane?????? what are models bringing this system to anyways?????????????

[jhamps10]

I'd watch the southern part of 92L...an anticyclone looks to be attempting to build over head.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Yeah, there's a decent anticyclone forming and quite strong upper divergence. Don't think there's any major upper-air obstacle to development.

The question will be whether it can close off a surface low.

indeed, but if it does looking at that map I see what would be a bit of wind shear that could inhibit development, or at least slow development down due north of Hisponola, other than that if we can get a closed off low, then Say hello to our future td.

[x-y-no]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

Why is that?

Because it would hit land before it would have the time to build. You are looking at 73-76 hours to land

Sounds like plenty of time to me.

I'm not predicting this will develop, but if it closes off a surface low in the next day, it has 2 days or so to develop after that. Plenty of storms have made it from minimal depression to hurricane strength in that amount of time.

[Brent]

indeed it is going to have to just slow the heck down, or else it will just stay as a tropical wave.

Dean didn't need to slow down to develop.

Yes he did and did so. He was going to fast at one time. When he slowed down to I think it was 18 it gave him time to Stack. After that is history

He also became a major hurricane on Friday while still moving 25 mph.

[storms in NC]

hmmm....development likely
with favorable conditions...where it goes:
somewhere between carolina and key west...
I won't get more specific because it is too hard for
me to predict tracks.

If the ridge wasn't in place then I would say yes it would have more time to develop JIMO. But I question if it really has time too. Cause if it doesn't and goes into Fla that would be the end.

[hial2]

The thing we have to look at is the speed it is going here. It would have to stop in it tracks to do any thing. JIMO

Why is that?

Because it would hit land before it would have the time to build. You are looking at 73-76 hours to land

Not that it will happen this time,but when a cyclone decides to form and intensify,73-76 hours is an eternity..especially when it hits the gulfstream..

[hial2]

hmmm....development likely
with favorable conditions...where it goes:
somewhere between carolina and key west...
I won't get more specific because it is too hard for
me to predict tracks.

If the ridge wasn't in place then I would say yes it would have more time to develop JIMO. But I question if it really has time too. Cause if it doesn't and goes into Fla that would be the end.

The end of what?

[skysummit]

Well, in my eyes, I see conditions becoming favorable pretty darn quick this morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see tropical cyclone development faster than we think.

[boca]

I think the area of interest is at 21n and 57w.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[storms in NC]

He also became a major hurricane on Friday while still moving 25 mph.

But not till he slowed down. After he did so he took off like a big Butt bird again

[storms in NC]

hmmm....development likely
with favorable conditions...where it goes:
somewhere between carolina and key west...
I won't get more specific because it is too hard for
me to predict tracks.

If the ridge wasn't in place then I would say yes it would have more time to develop JIMO. But I question if it really has time too. Cause if it doesn't and goes into Fla that would be the end.

The end of what?

If it goes over Fla just as a wave the land would hurt any more development.

[Sjones]

Does anyone have any new models on this invest?

[storms in NC]

Oh OT here some what. We in NC don't like the "F" names. Not good to us here. LOLOLOL