INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Duddy]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131430Z AUG 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 131500Z
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/131130Z AUG 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 131200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.5N 86.3W TO 25.7N 92.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.8N 85.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141500Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 30.0W
//

Does this mean something bad for me?

[Scorpion]

Storm2k is going to be busy... 2 storms at once. It's been actually quite a while since that has occurred.

[cpdaman]

extremeweather

does JB mention any chance of rapid development even though he is thinking tropical storm?

[punkyg]

Crap, that LLC looks like it's just chewing it up.

What do you mean chewing it up?
are you to about the upper level low.

[Duddy]

Crap, that LLC looks like it's just chewing it up.

What do you mean chewing it up?
are you to about the upper level low.

Whoops, yeah, I meant ULL. LOL. OMG. TY. SRY.

[Duddy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Actually, here, it looks like the ULL is rapidly weakening under 91L's influence.

Do we have a rapid strengthener on our hands? Another....Rita?

[Extremeweatherguy]

extremeweather

does JB mention any chance of rapid development even though he is thinking tropical storm?

There's always a chance and we should watch it...but ATM he is calling for just a tropical storm.

[drezee]

extremeweather

does JB mention any chance of rapid development even though he is thinking tropical storm?

Only 14.95 and you won't have to ask...

[Duddy]

extremeweather

does JB mention any chance of rapid development even though he is thinking tropical storm?

There's always a chance and we should watch it...but ATM he is calling for just a tropical storm.

The one thing I hate about TS's is that even if it hits between Corpus and Brownsville, all the rain is North of the center, meaning we actually get the crap. All I want is the cloud cover, it's freakin' 99 degrees today!! With a Heat index of 108!

[Duddy]

extremeweather

does JB mention any chance of rapid development even though he is thinking tropical storm?

Only 14.95 and you won't have to ask...

What are you talking about?

[vaffie]

12Z GFDL out--keeps it on its current trajectory of about 290-300 degrees showing landfall 80 miles north of Brownsville and 60 miles south of Corpus Christi midday Wednesday.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07081317

[sealbach]

paying for jb's site

[weatherrabbit_tx]

hybird storm?

[Steve]

LMAO at the turn of events in this thread.

I'm going against the canadian model and saying this doesn't become a hurricane. I'm thinking north of Brownsville (Kings Ranch area???) maybe between South Padre and Corpus Christi as a 50-60mph TS. Just my take, nothing official. But it definitely looks like the ULL is still there on WV if not so strong on the visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z GFDL out--showing landfall 80 miles north of Brownsville and 60 miles south of Corpus Christi midday Wednesday.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/07081317

That track would put the worst weather into the central TX coast with outer squalls likely reaching the upper TX coast.

[Lowpressure]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Actually, here, it looks like the ULL is rapidly weakening under 91L's influence.

Do we have a rapid strengthener on our hands? Another....Rita?

I would be careful with Rita comparisons- big difference.

[JTD]

LMAO at the turn of events in this thread.

I'm going against the canadian model and saying this doesn't become a hurricane. I'm thinking north of Brownsville (Kings Ranch area???) maybe between South Padre and Corpus Christi as a 50-60mph TS. Just my take, nothing official. But it definitely looks like the ULL is still there on WV if not so strong on the visible.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Steve

Ala Bret 1999? I remember that storm very well. Seems like a realistic scenario to me.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Actually, here, it looks like the ULL is rapidly weakening under 91L's influence.

Do we have a rapid strengthener on our hands? Another....Rita?

I would be careful with Rita comparisons- big difference.

This could go from Grace, 2003, to Erika, 2003, but no Rita here.

[Stratosphere747]

Might just be one of those systems that those on the Upper coast will not even realize it's out there. No rain or wind. Seen quite a few of these were any tropical conditions are relegated to the immediate coastline.

[srainhoutx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Actually, here, it looks like the ULL is rapidly weakening under 91L's influence.

Do we have a rapid strengthener on our hands? Another....Rita?

I would be careful with Rita comparisons- big difference.

Very Big Difference.