Typhoon Man-yi (04W)

[Chacor]

11/0233 UTC 16.4N 133.3E T4.5/4.5 MAN-YI -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

Partially clouded centre/"eye" now...

[cycloneye]

00 UTC, 11 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 18.2N 132.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 280NM

FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 22.6N 128.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 130600UTC 25.6N 127.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 140600UTC 30.0N 130.4E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT

This advisory is not the latest as the board was out for a few hours.The latest will come very soon.

[Chacor]

A chart of issuance times I made a while back...
Note that for typhoons or storms that are affecting Japanese islands or mainland Japan, updates are issued every hour:

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[Chacor]

Welcome back Sandy!

[HURAKAN]

Welcome back Sandy!

Thanks. Arrived on Monday after visiting Cuba for two weeks. Luckily didn't miss anything important in the Atlantic.

[Chacor]

737
FKPQ30 RJTD 111200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070711/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MAN-YI
NR: 17
PSN: N1855 E13125
MOV: NW 22KT
C: 955HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 12/0000Z N2105 E12935
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 12/1200Z N2255 E12820
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 85KT
NXT MSG: 20070711/1800Z =

Thankfully the new forecast track is slightly east of Japan...

[windstorm99]

Indeed...

[windstorm99]

Eye begining to clear out...

[HURAKAN]

Man-Yi, what do you prefer, "major" or "intense"?!?!?

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 131.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 131.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.4N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.0N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.4N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 32.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 35.6N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 131.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z,
120900Z AND 121500Z.//

Up to "major" typhoon strength now at 100 kt from the JTWC. I want to know what they're on, becoming extratropical in 48 hours at 110 kt!?

[Chacor]

Man-Yi, what do you prefer, "major" or "intense"?!?!?

Over Okinawa as a 125-kt typhoon. Going to intercept it Typhoon Hunter?

[windstorm99]

Intensity guidance way up there.

[windstorm99]

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIM-
ATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 45-NM ROUND EYE WITH A BANDING FEATURE. A 111103Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED EYE ENCLOSED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT TY 04W HAS MAINTAINED GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND IS NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALLOWING IT TO INTENSIFY. TY 04W HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND JMA.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE ENHANCED IR SATELLITE
FIXES AND REPRESENTATIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TY 04W REMAINS A LARGE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED ON THE 110903Z QUIKSCAT WINDS. THE SYSTEM TRACK
PERSISTS ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH CONTINUES TO BE MODIFIED BY THE STORM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TY 04W REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
LAST PROG REASONING. OVERALL TY 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A
STANDARD POLEWARD FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN AROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR
ANCHORED OFF TO THE EAST. ONCE NORTH OF STR AXIS THE STORM WILL
UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
B. THE ORIENTATION OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT
THROUGH TAU 24, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TRACK
TOWARD THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY
AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO THE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE STORM WILL HELP TO CREATE THIS
WEAKNESS. AFTER TAU 24, THE STORM WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS THE
WEAKNESS FULLY DEVELOPS. TY 04W IS FORECAST TO CREST THE STR AXIS
AROUND TAU 36 AND BEGIN TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH TO
TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A GREATER-THAN-CLIMA-
TOLOGICAL RATE TO ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AROUND TAU 36 DUE TO COUPLING
OF THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK TIL TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT EAST AS
EGRR HAS DEVIATED FROM ITS PREVIOUS CONSISTENCY AND IS THE SOLE
OUTLIER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 04W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL MARK TY 04W EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AFTER TAU 48.
THE STORM WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU. THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO STRONG
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND LAND INTERACTION.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
BT
NNNN

[P.K.]

It didn't sound like he was going to intercept it the last I heard from him Sandy.

[CrazyC83]

This thing seems to be rapidly intensifying. Could we see the year's first super typhoon?

[cycloneye]

This thing seems to be rapidly intensifying. Could we see the year's first super typhoon?

If this gets to supertyphoon status,it will not be the first one this year as Yutu was the first in May.

[CrazyC83]

I thought Yutu peaked at 125 knots?