STORM2K

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:36 pm**

I was thinking that it might be fun to start a little game on here where anybody that is interested posts a portion of an advisory and other posters try to guess which storm it was. I would say maybe give it 2-3 hours before giving the answer that way more than 1 person has time to try to guess what storm it is.

Try not to go to the NHC website to find out the answer. Google and other sources would be fine I guess.

Anyway, let's start off with a very very easy one. The NHC posted the following advisory:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MAINLAND FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUST SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD.

Other posters who are interested can feel free to post a portion of an advisory or even a forecast track for another storm and we will try to guess that one too.

So which storm was the above? 8-)

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:25 pm**

Floyd.

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:50 pm**

Tropics_Dude83 wrote:I was thinking that it might be fun to start a little game on here where anybody that is interested posts a portion of an advisory and other posters try to guess which storm it was. I would say maybe give it 2-3 hours before giving the answer that way more than 1 person has time to try to guess what storm it is.

Try not to go to the NHC website to find out the answer. Google and other sources would be fine I guess.

Anyway, let's start off with a very very easy one. The NHC posted the following advisory:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MAINLAND FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUST SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD.

Other posters who are interested can feel free to post a portion of an advisory or even a forecast track for another storm and we will try to guess that one too.

So which storm was the above?

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:51 pm**

Floyd was never a Cat. 5, I think. :uarrow:

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:58 pm**

No it wasn't. It got up to 155 which is 1 mph short. But I do think that advisory is Floyd also.

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:17 pm**

It's Floyd.

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:10 pm**

Yes

it is indeed Floyd. Here's the full advisory I cut and pasted from:

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOYD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST MON SEP 13 1999

...FLOYD STILL ON A WESTWARD TRACK...

A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACO ISLANDS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA AND NEW PROVIDENCE
ISLAND...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...
EXUMAS ISLANDS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FLORIDA
MAINLAND EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF
BRUNSWICK GEORGIA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOYD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES
...145 KM...EAST OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 470 MILES...750 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI
FLORIDA.

FLOYD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. FLOYD IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINBANDS FROM FLOYD ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...24.2 N... 73.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 926 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

AVILA

NNNN

Floyd prompted the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history and essentially threatened the entire eastern seaboard. A truly historic event!

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:13 pm**

Now for a much harder one, BUT not nearly as hard as it first may seem:

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Can you name the storm that this turned out to be?

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:18 pm**

Beta?

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:56 pm**

Katrina 1999.

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:56 pm**

fact789 wrote:Beta?

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:50 pm**

Brent wrote:Katrina 1999.

Correct. I thought some might be fooled into thinking that it was Beta but no it's Katrina 1999. I chose it since it was the last time Katrina was used before the infamous storm of 2005.

Here's the full advisory:

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 28 1999

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING FOR NICARAGUA WITH HEAVY RAINS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SAN ANDRES ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ON FRIDAY.

THE MOST RECENT PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THESE RAINS WILL POSE
A SERIOUS THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
SAN ANDRES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REPORTED 3.58 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THE LAST SIX HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...11.7 N... 81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...FRIDAY.

FRANKLIN

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.

NNNN

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:26 pm**

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN SOUTHWARD TO LA FORTUNA...INCLUDING ISLAS
MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA FORTUNA
TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE <--> WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

Posted: **Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:33 pm**

Chacor wrote:A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN SOUTHWARD TO LA FORTUNA...INCLUDING ISLAS
MARIAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA FORTUNA
TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE <--> WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...155
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

Hurricane Kenna 2002 (EPAC)

Posted: **Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:58 am**

Yes, the last Cat 5 in the EPac we had. Made landfall as a cat 4 and had its name retired.

Posted: **Mon Oct 01, 2007 10:21 pm**

...HURRICANE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...

HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
VERMILLION BAY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF VERMILLION BAY WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...AND FROM EAST
OF PASCAGOULA EASTWARD TO MOBILE ALABAMA...INCLUDING ALL OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
COAST..AND RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE LOCAL NWS COASTAL
FORECASTS FOR CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

Posted: **Mon Oct 01, 2007 10:37 pm**

Chacor wrote:...HURRICANE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...

HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
VERMILLION BAY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF VERMILLION BAY WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...AND FROM EAST
OF PASCAGOULA EASTWARD TO MOBILE ALABAMA...INCLUDING ALL OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
COAST..AND RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE LOCAL NWS COASTAL
FORECASTS FOR CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

Andrew?

Posted: **Mon Oct 01, 2007 10:44 pm**

Yes, here's that advisory:

Code: Select all

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDREW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  35A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT MON AUG 24 1992

...HURRICANE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTEND FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
VERMILLION BAY LOUISIANA.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF VERMILLION BAY WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...AND FROM EAST
OF PASCAGOULA EASTWARD TO MOBILE ALABAMA...INCLUDING ALL OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
COAST..AND RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE LOCAL NWS COASTAL
FORECASTS FOR CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.
 
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS.
 
ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  942 MB...27.82
INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
 
RAPPAPORT

Posted: **Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:56 am**

Here's an interesting one:

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN DISPLAYED ON THE LOUISIANA COAST
EASTWARD TO MOBILE BAY AND GALE WARNINGS FROM EAST OF MOBILE BAY
TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.

THE CENTER OF <--> IS NOW INLAND AND AT 10 PM CST...0400Z...
WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 30.0
LONGITUDE 91.5 OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE. <-->
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 7 MPH TONIGHT AND
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY.

Posted: **Tue Oct 02, 2007 12:38 pm**

Chacor wrote:Here's an interesting one:

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN DISPLAYED ON THE LOUISIANA COAST
EASTWARD TO MOBILE BAY AND GALE WARNINGS FROM EAST OF MOBILE BAY
TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.

THE CENTER OF <--> IS NOW INLAND AND AT 10 PM CST...0400Z...
WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 30.0
LONGITUDE 91.5 OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE. <-->
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 7 MPH TONIGHT AND
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY.

Hurricane Andrew again?

STORM2K

The Name that Hurricane Thread

The Name that Hurricane Thread

Re: The Name that Hurricane Thread

Re: The Name that Hurricane Thread

Re: The Name that Hurricane Thread

Re: The Name that Hurricane Thread

Re: The Name that Hurricane Thread

Re: The Name that Hurricane Thread

Re:

Re: The Name that Hurricane Thread

Re:

Re:

Re: