New article on Proenza

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4979829.html

A couple of points:

1. Me posting this does not in any way constitute an endorsement of any of the claims made by the article

2. I am remaining strictly neutral on this issue, as is the Greater Miami Chapter of the American meteorological Society (of which I am the executive director)


Just posting this article I have came across

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ill say something "I love the artice and agree with it completely"..

[Chacor]

Yet another example of the politicians in Washington failing, and that's where I'll leave it before it gets too political. As Jeff Masters noted, a clearly pro-Proenza group.

[Aslkahuna]

I've seen this idea that Proenza was set up for the fall posted elsewhere. It's not outside the realm of possibility and of course will be denied profusely.

Steve

[Berwick Bay]

Again it looks like an orchestrated PR campaign against Proenza in advance of formal hearings. Proenza remains silent. If the forecasters have so much to say, why not wait until it counts, at the hearing tomorrow. I'll wait until the hearings for his side of the story.

[vacanechaser]

Again it looks like an orchestrated PR campaign against Proenza in advance of formal hearings. Proenza remains silent. If the forecasters have so much to say, why not wait until it counts, at the hearing tomorrow. I'll wait until the hearings for his side of the story.

did you not read it... they will not be at the hearing tomorrow...it sounds like only people who support him will be there....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Chacor]

The Democrat-led committee is honestly not really interested in what Proenza did, whether it was good or bad. This may be too political, but in this situation it's hard to avoid. More than likely they'll go after NOAA because it's the Reps who put the guys at NOAA where they are. It's all for political gain. Proenza knows they'll go after NOAA. He can relax.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's not slide to pure political ground in this topic.

[Berwick Bay]

You're probably right Vacanechaser, the forecasters will be busy in Miami, but the article says that Adm Lautenbacher will be there to explain the dismissal. So why this continued orchestrated PR campaign against Proenza. Just let the facts speak for themselves at the hearing tomorrow.
From the article
At Thursday's hearing. it is expected that NOAA administrator Conrad Lautenbacher will reveal parts of the unreleased report prepared by the investigative team. Lautenbacher is likely to face hostile questioning.

[vacanechaser]

maybe this is why berwick

To some who have followed the controversy, the panel appears to be stacked in favor of Proenza, who chastised his bosses for not hurrying a replacement to the QuikSCAT satellite.

and

"No QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas is scheduled to testify," said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist for The Weather Underground, a popular weather Web site.

sounds like pure polotics to me... does that sound fair to anyone here??? i would hate to think so... regardless of whether or not they have spoken to the media, the other side should be herd from on the hill...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

The Democrat-led committee is honestly not really interested in what Proenza did, whether it was good or bad. This may be too political, but in this situation it's hard to avoid. More than likely they'll go after NOAA because it's the Reps who put the guys at NOAA where they are. It's all for political gain. Proenza knows they'll go after NOAA. He can relax.

sounds logical to me chacor...

sorry cycloneye, but thats what this is about really... politics...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[rjgator]

My question is why he was ever assigned the job when a senior forecaster like Franklin stated

"In fact, forecasters were increasingly eager for a change in leadership, Franklin said, because Proenza had little experience in forecasting hurricanes and the peak of hurricane season, from August to September, was coming soon. In the past, Franklin said, forecasters would often use the director as a final check on a forecast before sending it out.

There was never any thought of doing the same with Proenza, as he wasn't a tropical cyclone expert, Franklin said."


I think it is funny how politics work. Scary to think that we had a NHC Director that was not a tropical cyclone expert and had little experience in forecasting hurricanes. I am sure he would have to make many calls on evacuations etc that could possibly save or lose lives. One would think that the NHC Director would be the one with the most knowledge of hurricanes, politics, and media control.

The funding issues also make me upset. It is sad when we waste millions of dollars a day in the war in Iraq (Not saying I support it or am against it) but have to make cut backs in satellites and hurricane hunter research missions. We fight terrorism to help protect lives and property of Americans and need to do the same to protect the property and lives of Americans from the potential impacts of tropical cyclones. I would have to wonder if the technology and funding that is being used in military satellites in parts of the world was put into a weather satellite what we would have. Even Google earth has about a 1m resolution. I watch war videos and see people running from trucks on IR from satellites before the bombs blow up their trucks. I am sure if the GOES satellites had the same technology we would be able to study hurricanes with much greater precision. The quick scat satellite is just one tool that is used and in my opinion should be replaced with something much more advanced.

The government needs to change its outlook when appropriating the NHC's budget. Look at it this way. If there was a submarine heading towards the East coast that would explode (causing a potential city like Miami to be destroyed) upon impact with the beach how many hundreds of military planes would be flying around trying to find it so that they could try and predict where it was going in order to evacuate the correct area.

I guess I am just venting since we only have four or so flights per day of the Hurricane hunters when storms are out there. The models are only as accurate as the data they have and the more recon flights of the surroundings of the storm I think would help lead to the accuracy.

I suppose we will just have to wait for another Hurricane Floyd and evacuate half of the East coast again before anyone takes notice.

Sorry for the venting but I just believe that our tax dollars should be spent on things that could potentially save lives.

[miamicanes177]

The forecasters at the NHC will have to endure their worst nightmare thursday. Bill Proenza and the #1 QuikScat expert in the entire world, Dr. Bob Atlas, will go on the record before Congress. Bob Atlas believes the 10% and 16% forecaster erros cited by Proenza to be 100% accurate. Dr. Atlas completely disagrees with the NHC staff and this will become public information on the biggest stage of them all. The forecasters will be forced to stay quiet as they will not be allowed to give testimony!!!!! Thank goodness! Bill Proenza will finally have his say and there is nothing the forecasters can do about it. I love this.

[Berwick Bay]

I agree with you Miami 177. For the last several weeks ALL I've heard is the anti-Proenza side of the story which was leaked to the media. Tomorrow will be the first time that we really get to hear his side, and it will be done where it counts, not leaked to the media but in the open, in front of the congressional committee. And Lautenbacher and those who wanted his head will also have their say, and will be asked to testify. Also, because of the way Proenza's dismissal was handled (totally unprofessional), the presumption of innocence is really with him. That being the case, I wouldn't be surprised if the committee is more aggresive in their interrogation of Lautenbacher. Lautenbacher, and NOAA are on the spot to defend themselves about why this action was taken, and to give reasons for the way it was handled.

[x-y-no]

This may be in vain, but I hope the members of the committee actually go into this with an open mind. I, for one, have completely changed my opinion as more information has come out.

[Berwick Bay]

I hope you're right XY. I just need to hear Proenza's side now. I've been a big Proenza defender, mainly because of the way the dismissal was handled. It really angered and offended me. If Lautenbacher has legit points, then I'm open to it. But its hard for me to imagine a scenario which would make me understand why the dismissal was handled in the way it was, not to mention all of the unfortunate leaking by the forecasters to the newsmedia.

[Derek Ortt]

About the funding for hurricane forecasting and research


I believe it is a national security matter, not a weather matter. Katrina showed how much the entire country can be affected by a cane. If one hits NYC, it will be far worse and the entire country will be affected.

By making forecasting and research part of the defense budget, money in the long term will be saved. If we spend 500 million per season on forecasting and research, and in 15 years are able to cause the damage of a Katrina to be reducted from 81 billion to just 70 million, we would have saved 4.5 billion dollars

[x-y-no]

About the funding for hurricane forecasting and research


I believe it is a national security matter, not a weather matter. Katrina showed how much the entire country can be affected by a cane. If one hits NYC, it will be far worse and the entire country will be affected.

By making forecasting and research part of the defense budget, money in the long term will be saved. If we spend 500 million per season on forecasting and research, and in 15 years are able to cause the damage of a Katrina to be reducted from 81 billion to just 70 million, we would have saved 4.5 billion dollars

That's an interesting notion. I certainly agree about it being a national security issue. Whether that means it's a good idea to put the budget in the military .... I don't know. Have to think about that. There are plenty of national security missions outside the military. DOE comes to mind especially with regard to nuclear materials security.

[rjgator]

Regardless of National Security the funds that would be appropriated to the NHC would ultimately save money due to the potential wasted costs of evacuations alone for unneeded reasons. Not to mention that they just cut the Homeland security budget in most counties in Florida including Miami Dade and Broward by Millions of dollars per year. It costs approximately 1 million dollars per mile of coastline for evacuations when you consider loss of business income etc. If this could be prevented it would be huge. There are a lot of hidden costs that are used when this happens. The most important part of the matter is that no matter what it coasts the people and tools that they use should be the best that technology has to offer. In the grand scheme of the Federal budget it is a pittance.

I think that we all agree that with the potential damage to property in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year from Hurricanes that more money should be spent in research and ensuring that they have the most up to date equipment they need. In fighting is the last thing we need. Derik I also want to let you know that your posts over the years I have been on this website have been spectacular and you insight is greatly appreciated. Are you planning on coming to the Gather we are having later this month?

[dizzyfish]

I found the last part of the article very interesting. Could this be the answer to - there must be something else going on? This theory makes a lot of sense.

quote *Although the hurricane center director has a much higher public profile, the position within NOAA's bureaucracy is closer to middle management but carries the same pay grade. The director oversees a staff of about 50 people.

"I'd consider it a demotion," Daniel Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization said of Proenza's move.

The question, then, is why he moved. A spokesman for Lautenbacher declined to comment.

Sobien has a theory. As director of the southern region, Sobien said, Proenza had a seat on the corporate board that governs the weather service. In that position, he regularly was a "thorn in the side" of NOAA, which at times had sought to consolidate local forecasting operations.

"There's no love lost between NOAA and Proenza," Sobien said. "Bill Proenza was the one senior manager in the NWS who spoke out against this whole idea of consolidation, and right around the same idea time he was moved to the hurricane center. I don't believe in coincidences, and I know for a fact that this wasn't a coincidence."

Sobien believes whoever moved Proenza into the hurricane center position either didn't realize he was as outspoken as we was — unlikely as Proenza has been a government forecaster for four decades — or thought he might eventually say something in the high-profile position to "hang himself." *end quote