Discovery has launched!!!

[Brent]

Article in Tomorrow's New York Times:

NASA Puts Shuttle Mission's Risk at 1 in 100
By WILLIAM J. BROAD
With a new realism born of disaster, NASA says that the risk of catastrophic failure during the space shuttle Discovery's mission is about 1 in 100, more than twice as great as an upbeat estimate issued before the loss of the Columbia in 2003.

While the space agency is still working on an official estimate, a spokesman, Allard Beutel, said, it has devised a rough one that will be refined by insights from the investigation of the Columbia disaster, in which seven astronauts died as the ship broke up during its re-entry into Earth's atmosphere.

The rise in estimated danger, Mr. Beutel said, came about "because we have a better understanding" of the craft's workings and limitations. He emphasized, though, that "it's a statistical probability, as opposed to what is going to happen." (The actual rate of catastrophic failure - as opposed to the calculated risk - now stands at 2 flights in 113, or 1 in 57.)

The estimate, known formally as the shuttle's Probabilistic Risk Assessment, combines the findings of flight experience, computer simulations and expert judgment to assess how the shuttle's millions of parts will work or fail in varying situations.

The most dangerous times are seen as the shuttle's ascent, when its powerful engines fire, and the descent, when it plunges though the atmosphere and maneuvers to a landing.

The risk estimate has swung sharply over the years.

Before the explosion of the shuttle Challenger in January 1986, agency officials regularly put the odds of disaster at 1 flight in 100,000, much closer to that of commercial jets. The Air Transport Association has estimated the chance of an airline disaster at 1 flight in 2,000,000.

After the Challenger disaster, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration was widely faulted for lack of candor.

"NASA exaggerates the reliability of its product to the point of fantasy," Richard P. Feynman, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, wrote in a federal report on the disaster.

When shuttle missions resumed in September 1988, NASA officials estimated the overall risk of catastrophic failure at 1 flight in 50.

But over the years, as the agency regained confidence in the spaceships and worked hard at improving their performance, it slowly decreased its estimates for the odds of catastrophe: 1 flight in 145, 1 in 161, then, in 1998, 1 in 254.

Early this decade, a wave of new, more realistic assessments brought the figure back down to 1 in 123.

The Columbia disaster threw all those estimates into question. Mr. Beutel of NASA said the agency now put the odds of disaster at roughly 1 flight in 100, adding that engineers were still working to refine their risk calculations.

Private experts note that NASA's desire to retire the shuttles as soon as possible because of their riskiness has led to the cancellation of some plans for safety upgrades. For instance, last year the agency dropped a program to toughen spaceship surfaces that endure the highest heats during re-entry.

Seymour C. Himmel, a retired engineer who served for more than two decades on the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, a group that advises NASA on the shuttle, said that lack of adequate financing constantly undercut agency plans for improving shuttle reliability.

But Mr. Himmel cautioned that no matter how much money went into the spaceships, their temperamental nature meant that the risk of disaster would always remain high.

"You'd like to go to 1 in 1,000," he said in an interview. "But you're never going to get there. Too many things can go wrong."

[cycloneye]

I hope that this time the launch goes on with any problems.If there is a small thing that is not doing the right thing it is better to pospone it and not be sorry later.

[Swimdude]

You know? There's only one thing about this whole shuttle dealio that annoys me. For the first time in my life, I was actually going to WATCH the shuttle go into space, live. You know, at 2 a.m. Eastern time. Plenty of time for my teenage self to sleep in. [I'm in central time.]

But now? 9:39 in the morning. Hmmm. Not as likely.

But don't get me wrong. I'd MUCH rather been annoyed into waking up early than to have another February 2002 incodent... I remember waking up, walking out into the living room in my PJ's, and watching the shuttle break apart. And you know? I watched that live.

[ict1523]

Watch them find something...

Oh well as said before it is better safe than sorry.

[wxmann_91]

I'm hoping that I can go watch the shuttle launch tomorrow. Hey, being in western time is worse. 8:39 AM . I'm more used to sleeping in these summer days. Now if I wake up at 8:00 AM and find out the shuttle's not launching I'm going to be PISSED!!!

[Brent]

I'm hoping that I can go watch the shuttle launch tomorrow. Hey, being in western time is worse. 8:39 AM . I'm more used to sleeping in these summer days. Now if I wake up at 8:00 AM and find out the shuttle's not launching I'm going to be PISSED!!!

Actually... 7:39am Pacific Time.

4:39am in Hawaii!

[cycloneye]

Countdown continues this morning with good weather.

[GalvestonDuck]

Go, baby, go!

[Petmom]

I hope they will have a safe trip.

http://www.nasa.gov/returntoflight/main ... kipIntro=1

This is a great site with nice pictures and everything.

[GalvestonDuck]

1 hour, 17 mins.

[Brent]

Weather can't be better... no clouds at all in the sky.

T minus 37 minutes.

[GalvestonDuck]

*snicker*

[Brent]

Here we go... 7 minutes.

[Brent]

*snicker*

LOL!

[GalvestonDuck]

"Close and lock your visors...T minus two minutes."

God bless 'em and keep 'em safe!

[GalvestonDuck]

*breathless now*

[Brent]

Picture perfect launch.

[PTrackerLA]

Picture perfect launch! We all gathered in office around the big screen tv and watched it launch. Something that I pretty much took for granted for the past 15 or so years now became something everyone wanted to watch. Let's all hope for a safe and successful mission.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow Brent, we think alike .

[wxmann_91]

I'm hoping that I can go watch the shuttle launch tomorrow. Hey, being in western time is worse. 8:39 AM . I'm more used to sleeping in these summer days. Now if I wake up at 8:00 AM and find out the shuttle's not launching I'm going to be PISSED!!!

Actually... 7:39am Pacific Time.

4:39am in Hawaii!

Darnett I actually thought it was 8:39 so I've waken up at 8:00, just 20 min after the launch time.

Oh well. I need to brush up on my math I guess.

Did anybody record the shuttle launch?