UH OH! "LOL!" Bush MIGHT be in TROUBLE!
Posted: Sun Jul 18, 2004 7:41 am
WELL....you KNOW where "I" stand, just don't know about my neighbors and other residents, but Dubya COULD be in trouble "LOL!" Naaaaa...he'll win (maybe) 
http://www.azcentral.com
Arizona could decide election
Parties focusing on swing states
Jon Kamman
The Arizona Republic
Jul. 18, 2004 12:00 AM
Imagine this: In the upcoming presidential election, every state votes exactly as it did in 2000, except Arizona goes Democratic instead of choosing President Bush.
What happens? John Kerry becomes president by the barest possible majority, 270 electoral votes to 268 for Bush.
It's that close.
Related info
• McCain stumps with Cheney to quash rumors
• Bush and Kerry on the issues
• ABC's of presidential elections
• More Politics | Election '04 News »
The winner of the Nov. 2 election will be president of the whole United States, but he'll go to the White House on the strength of what happens in 13 to 21 swing states that could tip either way.
No one is suggesting that Arizona will decide the election, although remotely, it could. But under the electoral-college system of choosing a president, the outcome is so predictable in about 30 states that the two major parties have declared victory or written off those areas and are focusing nearly all of their resources on the swing states.
This year, any state won or lost by less than 7 percentage points in 2000 is, in the vernacular of politics, a battleground. The more polite term is "swing state." A few other states that had wider margins of Bush victories also are considered worthy of a fight.
Arizona, where the spread four years ago was 6.4 percentage points, has long been considered a swing state, although Republicans last week challenged whether that's still true. Bush's 10- to 12-point leads in recent polls and a reduction in Kerry advertising in the state mean the race no longer is tight, the GOP argues. Democrats counter that the latest poll explicitly declared the state "still very much in play" because of the high number of undecided voters, and said shifts in advertising are meaningless in the approach to the Democratic National Convention, which opens in eightdays.
While safe Republican or Democratic states watch from a distance, the battlegrounds are staffed with a corps of political strategists and field workers. The team mobilizes armies of earnest campaign volunteers who fan out, or phone out, for people-to-people politicking.
New this cycle are squads of activists working for campaign organizations technically set up as independent but in reality are overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning.
Most visibly, the television and radio airwaves in battleground states are flooded with commercials as the Bush and Kerry camps spend down campaign treasuries of about $200 million apiece.
Registration is key
Job 1 is to register as many voters as possible, then make sure that they - and everyone else who can be relied upon to vote a certain way - actually show up at the polls.
Political activists say this year's election could be just as close as four years ago, and the outcome will depend not so much on the politically passionate, who would vote anyway, as on new or previously lackadaisical voters.
The parties are looking everywhere for such people: on their own voting lists, minorities, college students, newcomers from other states, recently naturalized citizens and anyone who can be rallied to a single issue, like abortion, gun control or same-sex marriage.
Many political observers across the nation say the electorate this year is the most polarized ever.
Tom Liddy, chairman of the Maricopa County Republican Party, said that commonly, 12 to 18 percent of voters remain undecided or "soft" - meaning they could switch their choice - until late in a presidential campaign.
This time, Liddy estimated, it will boil down to 4 to 8 percent.
"People by and large already have their minds made up. It's a very small number of people who could go either way," he said.
In Florida, the mother of all battlegrounds, state GOP spokesman Joseph Agostini said, "It's a game of margins now, and very slight margins."
Jim Pederson, chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, partially agreed but said Arizona, new to the national political stage and not accustomed to a full-blown campaign, is more open to persuasion.
"I think there's more flux in the electorate than the polls indicate," Pederson said. "A lot of things aren't yet defined."
Nothing for granted
The top-tier 13 battleground states, in the order of closeness of the 2000 vote, are Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, Tennessee, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
On the basis of its performance four years ago, Arizona would rank in the second tier of battleground states, behind Maine, Arkansas and Washington and ahead of only West Virginia. But several factors have made Arizona more prominent.
Considering that no Democrat other than Bill Clinton in 1996 has carried the state since Harry Truman won in 1948, and that both of the state's U.S. Senate seats, six of its eight U.S. House seats and both houses of the Legislature are in GOP control, "you would assume you'd have a strong enough Republican presence (for a Bush victory)," said Danny Diaz, regional spokesman for Bush-Cheney.
"But we recognize that this is an extremely close race," he said. "We're really not in a position where we can take anything for granted. . . . We have to field a formidable campaign."
As the second-fastest growing state in the nation, behind Nevada, Arizona has an evolving political complexion, colored especially by a swift rise in the proportion of voters who register with no party affiliation. Independents now make up nearly one-fourth of the state's voters.
Also, the rapid expansion of the state's Hispanic population, now about 1.5 million strong, or 27 percent of the state's people, makes that ethnic group much sought-after.
It's no longer a given that Hispanics will register or vote Democratic, the Bush camp emphasizes, pointing out that nationwide, the president drew an estimated 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000.
A third factor marking Arizona as a swing state is the narrow win by Gov. Janet Napolitano in 2002. It proved that despite Republicans' 7-6 registration advantage, a Democrat could win with a combination of high Democratic turnout, support from independents and more than a smattering of GOP crossover votes.
Nationally, the Democrats' list of swing states also extends to Republican-leaning Colorado and Louisiana largely on the strength of changing demographics and polls showing that Democrats' chances of winning U.S. Senate seats could work to Kerry's advantage. North Carolina, normally a Republican stronghold but the home of Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards, also is a target.
In all of the swing states, the fortunes of either party depend on such variables as economic conditions, demographic changes since 2000 and, in some cases, historical voting trends. New Hampshire, for example, had a close race four years ago but has gone Republican in six of the past eight presidential elections.
Strategic appearances
It's no accident that joint appearances by Bush and his 2000 primary rival, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, have taken place in the battleground states of Washington and Nevada. McCain also appeared Friday with Vice President Dick Cheney in Michigan, where McCain beat Bush four years ago in the GOP primary.
Ohio and Michigan, with 20 and 17 electoral votes, respectively, are the grandest prizes outside of Florida. The economies of those and several other swing states have shown less vitality than those of Sun Belt swing states.
Job creation also is a major issue in Oregon, said Kerry-Edwards campaign spokeswoman Lisa Sohn.
"Over 20 months, we have had the first- or second-highest unemployment rate in the nation," Sohn said.
That and concern over the war in Iraq are driving Republicans to take a closer look at the alternative ticket, she said.
In Florida, Agostini said voter recruitment is exploring every possibility. The latest focus is on Puerto Ricans migrating to central Florida, mostly from New York. Democrats believe the newcomers could help offset the solid conservatism of Cuban-Americans, but Agostini said Puerto Rican voters aren't so predictable, often choosing on the basis of a candidate's personality.
Both parties would love to win the state by a wide margin to help cement or repudiate the 2000 results, but every indication is that "Florida will be won by a razor-thin margin," Agostini said.
Meanwhile, Asians are one group being wooed by the GOP in Arizona, Liddy said. Although the numerical growth of Hispanics is far greater, Asians are the fastest-growing minority group in the state, more than doubling in a decade and now totaling at least 125,000.
Arizona's election "is going to be decided by field effort," Pederson said. "That's where we're placing our emphasis. Door-to-door field activities aren't as visible as a campaign based on media."
Bring it on, responds the state GOP.
Bob Fannin, state party chairman, marveled that since the first of the year, the party has mobilized more than 20,000 grass-roots volunteers and is training many in canvassing by phone and in person.
"I've never seen the party so well organized, and so early, too," Fannin said.
Other GOP officials expressed doubt that Democrats can field anywhere near that number, to which Pederson responded, "Good. That means we're below the radar and can surprise them."
http://www.azcentral.com
Arizona could decide election
Parties focusing on swing states
Jon Kamman
The Arizona Republic
Jul. 18, 2004 12:00 AM
Imagine this: In the upcoming presidential election, every state votes exactly as it did in 2000, except Arizona goes Democratic instead of choosing President Bush.
What happens? John Kerry becomes president by the barest possible majority, 270 electoral votes to 268 for Bush.
It's that close.
Related info
• McCain stumps with Cheney to quash rumors
• Bush and Kerry on the issues
• ABC's of presidential elections
• More Politics | Election '04 News »
The winner of the Nov. 2 election will be president of the whole United States, but he'll go to the White House on the strength of what happens in 13 to 21 swing states that could tip either way.
No one is suggesting that Arizona will decide the election, although remotely, it could. But under the electoral-college system of choosing a president, the outcome is so predictable in about 30 states that the two major parties have declared victory or written off those areas and are focusing nearly all of their resources on the swing states.
This year, any state won or lost by less than 7 percentage points in 2000 is, in the vernacular of politics, a battleground. The more polite term is "swing state." A few other states that had wider margins of Bush victories also are considered worthy of a fight.
Arizona, where the spread four years ago was 6.4 percentage points, has long been considered a swing state, although Republicans last week challenged whether that's still true. Bush's 10- to 12-point leads in recent polls and a reduction in Kerry advertising in the state mean the race no longer is tight, the GOP argues. Democrats counter that the latest poll explicitly declared the state "still very much in play" because of the high number of undecided voters, and said shifts in advertising are meaningless in the approach to the Democratic National Convention, which opens in eightdays.
While safe Republican or Democratic states watch from a distance, the battlegrounds are staffed with a corps of political strategists and field workers. The team mobilizes armies of earnest campaign volunteers who fan out, or phone out, for people-to-people politicking.
New this cycle are squads of activists working for campaign organizations technically set up as independent but in reality are overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning.
Most visibly, the television and radio airwaves in battleground states are flooded with commercials as the Bush and Kerry camps spend down campaign treasuries of about $200 million apiece.
Registration is key
Job 1 is to register as many voters as possible, then make sure that they - and everyone else who can be relied upon to vote a certain way - actually show up at the polls.
Political activists say this year's election could be just as close as four years ago, and the outcome will depend not so much on the politically passionate, who would vote anyway, as on new or previously lackadaisical voters.
The parties are looking everywhere for such people: on their own voting lists, minorities, college students, newcomers from other states, recently naturalized citizens and anyone who can be rallied to a single issue, like abortion, gun control or same-sex marriage.
Many political observers across the nation say the electorate this year is the most polarized ever.
Tom Liddy, chairman of the Maricopa County Republican Party, said that commonly, 12 to 18 percent of voters remain undecided or "soft" - meaning they could switch their choice - until late in a presidential campaign.
This time, Liddy estimated, it will boil down to 4 to 8 percent.
"People by and large already have their minds made up. It's a very small number of people who could go either way," he said.
In Florida, the mother of all battlegrounds, state GOP spokesman Joseph Agostini said, "It's a game of margins now, and very slight margins."
Jim Pederson, chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, partially agreed but said Arizona, new to the national political stage and not accustomed to a full-blown campaign, is more open to persuasion.
"I think there's more flux in the electorate than the polls indicate," Pederson said. "A lot of things aren't yet defined."
Nothing for granted
The top-tier 13 battleground states, in the order of closeness of the 2000 vote, are Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, Tennessee, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
On the basis of its performance four years ago, Arizona would rank in the second tier of battleground states, behind Maine, Arkansas and Washington and ahead of only West Virginia. But several factors have made Arizona more prominent.
Considering that no Democrat other than Bill Clinton in 1996 has carried the state since Harry Truman won in 1948, and that both of the state's U.S. Senate seats, six of its eight U.S. House seats and both houses of the Legislature are in GOP control, "you would assume you'd have a strong enough Republican presence (for a Bush victory)," said Danny Diaz, regional spokesman for Bush-Cheney.
"But we recognize that this is an extremely close race," he said. "We're really not in a position where we can take anything for granted. . . . We have to field a formidable campaign."
As the second-fastest growing state in the nation, behind Nevada, Arizona has an evolving political complexion, colored especially by a swift rise in the proportion of voters who register with no party affiliation. Independents now make up nearly one-fourth of the state's voters.
Also, the rapid expansion of the state's Hispanic population, now about 1.5 million strong, or 27 percent of the state's people, makes that ethnic group much sought-after.
It's no longer a given that Hispanics will register or vote Democratic, the Bush camp emphasizes, pointing out that nationwide, the president drew an estimated 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000.
A third factor marking Arizona as a swing state is the narrow win by Gov. Janet Napolitano in 2002. It proved that despite Republicans' 7-6 registration advantage, a Democrat could win with a combination of high Democratic turnout, support from independents and more than a smattering of GOP crossover votes.
Nationally, the Democrats' list of swing states also extends to Republican-leaning Colorado and Louisiana largely on the strength of changing demographics and polls showing that Democrats' chances of winning U.S. Senate seats could work to Kerry's advantage. North Carolina, normally a Republican stronghold but the home of Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards, also is a target.
In all of the swing states, the fortunes of either party depend on such variables as economic conditions, demographic changes since 2000 and, in some cases, historical voting trends. New Hampshire, for example, had a close race four years ago but has gone Republican in six of the past eight presidential elections.
Strategic appearances
It's no accident that joint appearances by Bush and his 2000 primary rival, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, have taken place in the battleground states of Washington and Nevada. McCain also appeared Friday with Vice President Dick Cheney in Michigan, where McCain beat Bush four years ago in the GOP primary.
Ohio and Michigan, with 20 and 17 electoral votes, respectively, are the grandest prizes outside of Florida. The economies of those and several other swing states have shown less vitality than those of Sun Belt swing states.
Job creation also is a major issue in Oregon, said Kerry-Edwards campaign spokeswoman Lisa Sohn.
"Over 20 months, we have had the first- or second-highest unemployment rate in the nation," Sohn said.
That and concern over the war in Iraq are driving Republicans to take a closer look at the alternative ticket, she said.
In Florida, Agostini said voter recruitment is exploring every possibility. The latest focus is on Puerto Ricans migrating to central Florida, mostly from New York. Democrats believe the newcomers could help offset the solid conservatism of Cuban-Americans, but Agostini said Puerto Rican voters aren't so predictable, often choosing on the basis of a candidate's personality.
Both parties would love to win the state by a wide margin to help cement or repudiate the 2000 results, but every indication is that "Florida will be won by a razor-thin margin," Agostini said.
Meanwhile, Asians are one group being wooed by the GOP in Arizona, Liddy said. Although the numerical growth of Hispanics is far greater, Asians are the fastest-growing minority group in the state, more than doubling in a decade and now totaling at least 125,000.
Arizona's election "is going to be decided by field effort," Pederson said. "That's where we're placing our emphasis. Door-to-door field activities aren't as visible as a campaign based on media."
Bring it on, responds the state GOP.
Bob Fannin, state party chairman, marveled that since the first of the year, the party has mobilized more than 20,000 grass-roots volunteers and is training many in canvassing by phone and in person.
"I've never seen the party so well organized, and so early, too," Fannin said.
Other GOP officials expressed doubt that Democrats can field anywhere near that number, to which Pederson responded, "Good. That means we're below the radar and can surprise them."
