A prediction on how the war will go, if it is fought.

[Guest]

This is just a thread to discuss how you think the war will go, if it does at all. Of course, no one wants war, but sometimes we have to take action. I'm just wanting to know how other people would think the war would be fought.
I personally believe it will go much like the Vietnam War, except for the whole,"America-losing-thing." At first it doesn't seem likely, yes? Well, let me open up a few things for you:
(1) The Middle East is mostly rocky desert, right? Well, you're probably thinking,"Hmmm, I don't know. Too many wide open spaces for guerrilla warfare." Just to let you know, this term was first used by Spanish peasant troops fighting Napoleon Bonaparte's occupation forces in Spain. Back then, the term was just guerrilla, or,"little war." Anyway, look at the terrain of the middle East. Big rocks to hide behind, the ground is perfect to set up trap doors like a Trap-door Spider would, so on and so forth.
(2) Take a good look at what we're up against. These people are ruthless, yet cowardly. They'll come out, strike, and go right back into the shadows before you even know they're there. Even worse, they'll also just simply strap a bomb to their chest and walk into a public building, killing hundreds, maybe even thousands.
(3) And if those two aren't enough for you, this'll really open up your eyes. These people that I'm talking about (suicide bombers, etc.) look like your average everyday business man who "takes his baths in green paper". The Al Qaida handbook specifically instructs its terrorists to ignore Islamic teachings when expedient to complete the mission. This means they can drink alcoholic beverages, shave their beards, wear Western-style suits and clothes, and mingle into the population with ease. We are like a cop on the beat: they know who we are...we haven't the faintest idea which one of those solid citizens out there wants to blow us away. Magnify this to a region the size of California, and this should give you some idea of what we're up against.
Comments, ideas, etc. anyone?

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

War with Iraq, in my belief is going to happen. It is not expedient for it not to. You can't activate several hundred thousand reservists, send several armed for bear combat units overseas, pay Turkey several million dollars, then pull everything back and leave the status quo.

I don't think a war on Iraq is going to make this country safer. Al qaida is not based in Iraq. There may be a few of them there (they are scattered literally all over the globe). I truly believe they are in Pakistan.

I believe that Osama and the leaders of Pakistan are sitting there toasting and drinking whatever it is they drink, laughing their a**es off on how they put one over on old Uncle Sam - can't prove it, but I believe it. They're saying, "We get all this dough, and they basically let us have a free pass that we created and enabled the Taliban, and thus by extension Osama."

Pakistan may be another one of those "alliances" we forged for expediency that will come back and bite us in the bum later (like when we supported Iraq in the Iran/Iraq war and the Mujahadeen in the Soviet/Afghanistan war).

[Guest]

Taking out Iraq does have a bearing on Al Qaida. We, by fighting and winning this, cut the Al Qaida network off from badly wanted supplies of ricin, VX, enhanced anthrax, some funding, and vital intelligence provided by Saddam and the rest of the inmates in the asylum.

This means they are going to go hunting for someone else to supply their needs. My best guess? Try the People's Republic of China. Why? Because, for one thing, 1/5 of the Chinese provincial army is Islamic. To pander to the growing ground swell within its own borders, China will gleefully and quietly accomodate Al Qaida, Al Aqsa, Abu Sayyef, or any of the other authorized subsidiaries worldwide. Think about it. Why is North Korea rattling its saber now? Coincidence? Not hardly...

[Arizwx]

Good Topic Fire,however,allow me to debate you per your observations:
I was in..actually IN Vietnam during the mid-latter stages of the War.
As you know,I was based on a Carrier,the 'Coral Sea',at the time CVG-43 on her stack.South China Sea & The Gulf of Tonkin.During WW2,a number such as '43' was the year in which a ship's keel was laid..in this case,delayed,however,she carried the 1943.Upgraded in 1970 and 1972 to accommadate larger Flt Hangar to Deck elevators,larger take off decks and steam cataupult systems upgraded.Engine Mods and Interior expansions to Galley and Quarters..she had a major overhaul of Hull Plating and thicker bulkheads.
Bow Props and bow(jets) were also additions to her for easier berthing and docking manuevers in tight quarters.Stabilizers keot her from yaw and pitch rates unsuitable for landing in Foul Wx.The main upgrade came,aside from amidships to the Bridge,on the Midships Starboard Gunwale(pronounced gunnel).Avionics,radar still scope Wsr-57 type,wx systems,some computers,and communications.Command and Control to Comm Tower Aircraft placement and Emer Fire/Sick bay control as well.
A secondary(Backup)auto rudder system was also employed.Guns were upgraded(with TracerPhosperous) and anti aircraft turret systems were added,rocket assist mini missile systems,Anti Torpedo submersed 'flack' was ejected as well if needed.Last but not least,a Flt Deck that employed the first 'Green to Red'(Starboard/Port)stobe light marker systems for Night/Foul Wx landings.Tailhook arresting cables now had synthetic nets to catch an aircraft that may miss the 'hook'.ALL F-4 Phantoms like the one I flew had Tailhooks..even if land based..a carry over from Navy to Marine Spec,they kept it in case of a Carrier needed landing.
Sterner bilge pumps and auto fire (pre Halon)systems were also installed.
She was a ship my friend...and my home.She logged more mission miles and hours than any other Carrier in the Vietnam/SE Asia theatre.
When she was de-commed in the early '80s..I wept as I saw her steam under her own power under the Golden Gate in SF.Just a fireboat(Phoenix) and some light CG Cutters for an escort,few noticed her last voyage to Vallejo/Alameda and off to Mare Is Ship Yrds.
You see,those memories mean something to me.Not for romance,but for a knowledge that no War is worth fighting without commraderie and purpose.
I know for fact,that the Iraqis have no real means of defense..especially with the demise of the Al samoud Missles.The Republican Guard is now the last line of defense,less than 400,000..a tenth of his origianal 1990 Army force.We had more than that deployed in Vietnam..approx 512,000 at the peak in LBJ's days of his 'Great Society'.
I suspect a quick 3 way air assault,now that Jordan has agreed to open thier airspace..allowing our Med Fleet to raise hell...unlike '91.Remember,his AirForce of French Mirage Delta Fighters flew to Iran during the Gulf War..so it is of no consequence.
Baghdad is Saddams' 'draw' to get us engaged in Urban Street fighting,and the Basra to North Oil Fields will be heavily fortified with C&C,which we can take out with our new GPS Guided JRAM Missles with Electromagnetic warheads,designed to jam his C&C Launch/Guidance Computers.Boots will be on the ground within a week to 10 days of the air asault and will control the N Perimeter to Turkey.Aviano(Italy) AFB will be the home of our B2 Stealth Force,based at home not far from you @Halloman AFB.Davis-Monthan AFB here in Tucson is the lead-in force for A-10 Warthog 'Tank Killers' as they were in '91...possibly based in the new facilty in Quatar.Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia handles the AWACS,F-16 Falcons and F-18s,as well as 3 Carriers..including the 'Kitty Hawk',another Vet of Vietnam.Helo Squadrons can scramble from the S or N No-Fly Zones or from Saudi or Kuwait.Turkey will handle the bulk of the heavy armored divisions(Tanks,etc).Mobile upgrades of the 'Patriot'anti-scud systems can be operated from Saudi Arabia to Isreal to Kuwait.
Marines still have Harrier Type Jump Jets becuase the new YF-22 NozzleJet is not in production at this time.Stealth F-17s will be the eyes and ears,as they have light firepower/defense systems.Unmanned drones will be employed as well as U-2 and SATs for recon.'TDWR'(RealtimeTower Dopper Wx Radar) will handle Tower Wx Dopper radars.C5A Galaxy Troop/Armour Transports out of Travis AFB in Cali will handle the inbound drops.Super Herc C130 Gunships are deployed in Afghanistan now and B-1 Bomber and F-15/F-16 escorts are in the Korean Theatre from Alaska/Guam and Okinawa in case of a flare up.
Vietnam?No.
You also spoke of terrorist type bombers...those are more a Homeland security threat..not battlefield,albeit..they will be guarded against heavily around our Fleet esp after the 'Cole' incident in Yemen.Aegis Tracking Cruisers are essential for Infrared Missle track/deployment as well.
Navy Seals...Rangers,etc will protect the intakes for Kuwait's Oil terminals and Intake systems for thier Desalinization Plants,which they depend on for Fresh Water..remember,Saddam clogged the intakes in '91 with a Crude dump.
Vietnam?No.
No 58K casualties.UNLESS..he unleashed a barraged premtive strike against Kuwait and/or Isreal with any number of WMDs...including VXGas or Bio. Serin is not that dangerous.
Plus..the Iraqis WANT a regime change..as N Vietnam did NOT.It was a Civil Insurrection..this,is a regime change.
Vietnam?No.
Take care young soldier..and fight the good fight.
Be Well & Safe

[mf_dolphin]

I expect the war will unfold as follows:

1. Air assault from Turkey into the north-west oil fields in conjunction with a air/amphibious assault on the southern oil fileds and oil terminal. This will be an attempt to keep Saddam from another Kuwait type disaster. This will be supported by a air campaign to prevent the movement of Iraqi armour against the vulnerable air assualt troops.

2. Massive air strikes at the remaining Iraqi Air Force assets, air defence and command /control sites.

3. Rapid ground force incursion from both Kuwait and Turkey. I don't expect weeks of preliminary air bombardment as in the last war. With Saddam withdrawing a majority of his forces closer to Bagdad, the northern and southern borders are fairly wide open.

I think we will see an entirely different campaign strategy when compared to 12 years ago.

[Derek Ortt]

As I've said before, I do not see the mid east theatre heating up anytime soon. We have moved many troops and supplies in the past, just to pull them back (Clinton a few times in 97 and 98).

I won't rule out the possibility of the Korean Front heating up before the mid east one does, especially if Kim Jong Il launches another test over Japan. If that happens, look for Red China to enter again on the side of N Korea, especially if we lanuch any ground operations into N korea, with the wild card being how Russia will react. I am not sure whihc side, if any, they would intervene on

[mf_dolphin]

Derek you may be the only person in the country that doesn't believe that a war will happen soon. I'm curious as to why you feel that way since you offered nothing but a bare opinion. Please expand on why you think this

[chadtm80]

Derek Ortt i know i saw in another post that you were ticked cuase Bush was proposing a new resolution, and you were mad cause you felt he "Lied" to the American people. Trust me, bush didnt want to have to get another Resolution, infact the only reason he is, is for Blair. Blair has stuck his neck way out for us on this one, and if Bush goes with another Resolution, then it helps blair out BIG TIME. i believe this is the only reason he has agreed to another resolution

[Derek Ortt]

1. Blix has just asked for several more months. There is no chance is haites that a UN resolution will pass before these months expire, due to France's veto. With a veto, Blair will have his hands tied due to activist liberals in Britain who are doing a better job of convincing the British public than is Blair.

2. We are approaching the hot summer. I do not see us launching any type of ground invasion during the summer, due to the chem and bio weapons, which requires that our troops wear those hot, heavy suits. Dehydration would become a large problem; thus, casuing numerous casualties and would slow the invasion.

3. The surprise factor is now over. The model for Kosovo was the best way to fight a new war. Do not move your forces there right away. By us not doing this, Slobobitch did not have the time to play games with the international community. We were able to rapidly move our troops over to the theatre; thus, progressivly increasing the air raids while we were taking out the critical targets.

4. Precedent on this type of build up in the Gulf shows that nothing ends up happening, except for 1991. 1994 we moved our troops to the Kuwait border after Saddam did likewise, but nothing happened, 1997 the same thing. 5 years ago about to the day, we were about to launch a devestation air assult after Saddam was playing the exact same games that he is doing now. Clinton backed down under UN opposition. We now have EVEN MORE UN opposition.


Half of our troops should be back in the USA and not being deployed to the Gulf. If they were going to have been deploye anywhere, it should have been to Korea and take care of those commies there, who have directly threatened the USA. I'd love for us to launch an all out assult on N Korea DMZ positions; thus, compromising their ability to conduct retalitory actions against S Korea and Japan, allowing for us to win that war in a month

[mf_dolphin]

I disagree on several points:

1. The chance of Blix getting several more months are slim and none.

2. There is plenty of time, we are talking weeks, in order to launch an invasion before the heat of summer hits Iraq. The war will e over before then.

3. There has never been a surprise factor so I don't know what you're referring to. It takes a lot of time to assemble a large enough force to take and occupy a country that is roughly the size of California. Hardly comparable to a Kosovo operation. Just like 12 years ago, the build up is almost complete and when Prsident Bush decides to strike we will. There won't be a long air bombardment as in the past war because the objective is different. I expect much more of a fast paced attack.

4. To compare Clinton's moves in 94 and 97 to Bush's actions in 2003 and draw conclusions is dangerous and inaccurate IMO. If Saddam is doing the same thing he is sadly mistaken.

N. Korea has a long track record of bluster and saber rattling. N. Korea while dangerous is not going to do anythig that China doesn't approve of for fear of losing their only real shield. N. Korea wants the oil deliveries and will settle down when an agreement is reached.

[VanceWxMan]

Yes I to agree with you Marshall N. Korea are a bunch of blow hards and this is not the first time that they have whined or even threatened the US. Frankly their army would STARVE to DEATH if they tried to take on this war..heck they are already hungery.
Yes China is their big brother but they will not allow n korea to get stupid and mess eveeything up for them exposing their front to the USA.
Saddam, and IRAQ's time is up they have had over 12 years to comply and the USA will attack with out WITHOUT the Securitys Resolution.

Aaron

[cycloneye]

First my thinking about when the invasion will begin will be between march 15th to the 25th that after the US and the UK presents the resolution and regardless if France vetoes it or not the US will go in with or without UN backing.

About what will happen in the invasion my biggest worrie is if the elite republican guard that commands Saddams son Uday stay around the cities fighting urban warfare and if that happens there will be plenty of casualties of iraqi civilians but also many US casualties.

But the US will win this war without any doubt and after the war ends then will come the peacekeeping phase that will take plenty of time maybe 2-5 years so we may see US troops there for a long time.