Iran Nuclear Standoff

[cycloneye]

Will Israel go alone without U.S. to attack nuke plants? Well,maybe yes.Read the latest information about this below.

Israel to attack Nuke Plants alone?

[cycloneye]

The Iranian navy has test-fired a sea-to-sea missile during a six-day naval maneuver in the Sea of Oman, the country's state radio reported Sunday.

The report quoted Adm. Ghasem Rostamabadi, the maneuver's spokesman, who said that the mid-range missile was launched from a battleship late Saturday in the waters off the port town of Chabahar near the Iran-Pakistan border.

The report did not elaborate on the range or give other details about the missile, dubbed Nasr-2 or Victory-2.

Iran said last week that it launched the large-scale naval maneuver that was to cover 50,000-square miles (129,500-sq. kilometers) of Iranian territorial waters and involve about 60 warships.

Iran regularly holds war games in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNew ... 22&sp=true

[Ed Mahmoud]

Reports that President-Elect Obama will offer Israel a 'nuclear umbrella'

This is almost a certain sign neither Bush nor Obama intend to do anything to stop Iran from getting The Bomb, and instead believe that deterrence will work against a country whose leaders believe in a particularly apocalyptic version of Shia Islam, with a belief that the Mahdi will come to Earth during a time of war, mass killings and chaos. Israel already has a nuclear deterrent, I don't know why a US deterrent would help much, except if Iran got three or four nukes to detonate in Israel, Israel may have a difficult time launching an effective nuclear counterstrike against Iran.

Note also Iran directs the terrorist group Hezb'Allah, which gives Iran just enough plausible deniability that Iran can order the bombing of Jewish centers in Buenos Aires, US Air Force barracks in Khobar, Saudi Arabia, or rocket attacks on Israel and the kidnapping and murder of Israeli soldiers without reprisal.

Although Israel doesn't really have the long range strike capability to do more than minor damage to Iran's nuclear capabilities, if they don't attack soon they will probably face a nuclear attack. An Iranian nuke will soon mean a Saudi nuke, as the Sunni Arab state and the Shia Persian state have long been adversaries. Some Saudi princes are still probably allied with al Qaeda (Saudi has thousands of 'princes'), and once more than one Islamic terror group has nukes, they can be used against the US with some level of plausible deniability.

Ahmadenijehad's predecessor Rafsanjani, viewed as more 'moderate', stated Israel would be destroyed in a nuclear war with iran, but Iran, because of its larger population and larger area, would survive.

IMHO, Bush and Obama are both apparently putting way too much faith in Soviet-US style MAD deterrence with people that don't quite operate rationally.

[Derek Ortt]

Israel showed they would go alone last year if they have to. When the puppet master NK showed up in Syria, they immediately attacked

[Ed Mahmoud]

Israel showed they would go alone last year if they have to. When the puppet master NK showed up in Syria, they immediately attacked

They only have a limited number of longer range F-16I and F-15I planes for the mission, and rumor has it Bush refused to share the IFF codes needed for an Israeli overflight of Iraq. Turkey might allow it, but a long mission becomes even longer.

If the Saudis knew what was good for them, they'd allow the Israelis to overfly their airspace, because a nuclear armed Iran is almost as big a threat to their long term survival as it is Israel's, but I don't see them allowing it.

Israel has, per internet, 1 KC-135 tanker and four home made KC-135s, 707 passenger jets converted to inflight refueling (KC-707). Unless Turkey would permit stationing of these in Turkish airspace, the jets with enough range to reach Iran could top off in Israeli airspace after takeoff, but shorter range jets would still come up short.

Israel has about 125 total F-16I and F-15Is that can reach Iranian airpsace and return without refueling, but I'd assume about half would be used either to surpress Iran's Russian supplied anti-air missile defense system or Iran's aging fleet of F-4s and F-14s (plus some Russian supplied jets and French and Russian jets from Iraq's air force that bugged out before the US could destroy them), so maybe 50 or 60 total planes on a single mission bombing nuke facilities, scattered and hardened, at best.


Edit to add- cool picture of F-15I Ra'am (English- "Thunder") jets alongside either a KC-707 or KC-135 tanker found while checking the latest info on the Israeli air defense forces...

[cycloneye]

Arabs and Iranians should sit together to try to resolve regional disputes, including the Persian nation's nuclear ambitions, the head of the Arab League Amr Moussa said Monday.

Arabs and Iranians should sit together to try to resolve regional disputes, including the Persian nation's nuclear ambitions, the head of the Arab League said Monday.

Many, mostly Sunni Arab nations are worried about the majority Shi'ite Iran's gaining power in the region, particularly its influence over Iraq, Hizbullah and Hamas.

"The time has come for an Arab-Iranian dialogue which should include all issues," Moussa told reporters. "We have differences and problems but these can be solved because Iran is an important country."

Moussa warned that Arabs should not let the Iranians and foreign powers decide the "fate of the region" - a reference to US efforts and those of Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany to resolve Iran's controversial nuclear program - without an Arab say.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite? ... 2FShowFull

[cycloneye]

U.S.told Israelis not to Bomb Nuclear Plants

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Bush rejected several Israeli requests last year for weapons and permission for a potential airstrike inside Iran, the author of an investigative report told CNN.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad insists Iran's nuclear program is only intended for peaceful purposes.

Israel approached the White House in early 2008 with three requests for an attack on Iran's main nuclear complex, said New York Times reporter David Sanger. His article appears in the newspaper on Sunday.

According to Sanger, Israel wanted specialized bunker-busting bombs, equipment to help refuel planes making flights into Iran and permission to fly over Iraq to reach the major nuclear complex at Natanz, the site of Iran's only known uranium enrichment plant.

The White House "deflected" the first two requests and denied the last, Sanger said.

"They feared that if it appeared that the United States had helped Israel strike Iran, using Iraqi airspace, that the result in Iraq could be the expulsion of the American troops (from Iraq)," he said.


http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast ... index.html

[cycloneye]

Scary report here about how advanced is Iran on its nuclear program:

Breaking News2:14pm UK, Tuesday January 27, 2009

Geoff Meade, defence correspondent

Iran will have enough enriched uranium to make a single nuclear weapon later this year, the prestigious International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) predicts.

The think tank's Mark Fitzpatrick made the announcement at today's launch of its annual global review of military powers.

"During 2009, Iran will probably reach the point at which it has produced the amount of low-enriched uranium needed to make a nuclear bomb," he said.

"But being able to enrich uranium is not the same as having a nuclear weapon."

However, the survey reports doubts over US Intelligence estimates that Iran halted its work on nuclear weapons six years ago.

This points to Tehran's continued development of long-range ballistic missiles able to reach targets in Israel and beyond.

The IISS recommends a mixture of carrot and stick as the best international response.

It concluded a dual policy of engagement and sanctions, testing possibilities for Iranian cooperation while adopting targeted containment strategies, is the best way to deal with Iran's nuclear programme.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World- ... or_Warhead

[cycloneye]

What are they up to by doing this?

Iran launches satellite into orbit



TEHRAN, Iran — Iran has successfully sent its first domestically made satellite into orbit, state radio reported Tuesday, another development in the country's ambitious space program that has worried many international observers.

The satellite called Omid, or hope in Farsi, was launched late Monday after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave the order to proceed, according to the radio report. State television also showed footage of what it said was the satellite blasting off in the darkness from an unidentified location in Iran.

The reports could not be independently verified by outside observers. Some western observers have accused Tehran of exaggerating its space program.

Iran has long held the goal of developing a space program, generating unease among world leaders already concerned about its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. One of the worries associated with Iran's fledgling space program is that the same technology used to put satellites into space can also be used to deliver warheads.

The satellite was taken into orbit by a Safir-2, or ambassador-2 rocket, which was first tested in August and has a range of 175 miles.

[Nimbus]

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=84 ... =351020101

696 domestic and 156 foreign projects from 42 countries participated in the international event and competed for the prestigious Kharazmi award.

If we go NOW we may be able to take out 3 or 4 of these countries but the military resources here in the US have been stretched too thin to get them all.

[cycloneye]

Pentagon Confirms the launch of satellite

U.S. Department of Defense officials confirmed the launch, and the State Department expressed "grave concern."

"Developing a space launch vehicle that could ... put a satellite into orbit could possibly lead to development of a ballistic missile system," State Department acting spokesman Robert Wood told reporters. "So that's of grave concern to us."


There were no indications of any weapons activity on the two-stage rocket, although the rocket is capable of launching long-range weapons, the officials said.

"Although this appears to be satellite, there are dual-use capabilities that could be applied to missiles, and that's a concern to us and everybody in region,"

The Pentagon said Tuesday the launch is "clearly a concern of ours."

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast ... index.html

[cycloneye]

Video of Iran Satellite Launch.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/ ... 4&src=news

[cycloneye]

Iran has slowed its uranium enrichment program

Iran has slowed the rate at which it is expanding its controversial uranium enrichment program, according to an International Atomic Energy Agency report.

Iran is still defying U.N. Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium, a process that can produce fuel for atom bombs, and refused to allow IAEA inspectors to check its Arak heavy water reactor project after a dome had been built over it to block satellites from taking images of the facility.

The U.N. nuclear agency also reported Thursday that it has found new traces of processed uranium and graphite in samples taken from a Syrian site being investigated for possible hidden nuclear activities.

The finding is part of a restricted report on Syria being circulated among the IAEA's 35 board member nations.

The Iranian report did not suggest any reason for the enrichment slowdown. But agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei said earlier this week that the reason appeared to be "political" — indicating that Iran may be waiting for conciliatory signals from the new U.S. administration, which has said it is ready to break with past American policy and talk directly with Iran on nuclear and other disputes.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,496444,00.html

[cycloneye]

Iran has enough enriched uranium to make a Nuclear Bomb

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iranian scientists have reached "nuclear weapons breakout capability," according to a new report based on findings of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency.

The Institute for Science and International Security report concludes Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon but does have enough low-enriched uranium for a single nuclear weapon.

The type of uranium the International Atomic Energy Agency report says Iran has would have to be further enriched to make it weapons-grade.

The institute drew its conclusions from an IAEA report dated February 19, 2009. An official in the IAEA confirmed the authenticity of the report for CNN, but didn't want to be named.

The IAEA report is posted on the Web site of ISIS, a Washington-based non-profit and non-partisan institution focused on stopping the spread of nuclear weapons.

It also finds that while Iran has dramatically increased installation of centrifuges that can be used for enriching uranium -- from 4,000 to 5,400 -- its scientists aren't using the new units yet. They remain in "research and development mode."

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast ... index.html

[cycloneye]

Iran denies slowdown of Nuclear Plants

BUSHEHR, Iran - Iran denied it had slowed down its nuclear activities and said it planned to install 50,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium over the next five years, a senior Iranian nuclear official said on Wednesday.

The U.N. nuclear agency watchdog said last week that Iran had slowed the expansion of its uranium enrichment plant at Natanz but had built up a stockpile of nuclear fuel.

The West accuses Iran of covertly seeking to build nuclear weapons, a charge Tehran denies, insisting its activities are aimed at generating electricity to meet soaring demand in the world's fourth largest oil producer.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29383062/

[cycloneye]

Iran Tests Long-Range Missile

Iran has launched a new long-range missile, Reuters reported Sunday, days after the Islamic Republic's military chief warned Israel that Tehran's missiles are within range of its nuclear facilities.

"Iran test fires new long range missile," Press TV, Iran's English-language television station, said in a scrolling headline, Reuters reported.

The report comes days after Iran's military chief warned Israel that its nuclear facilities are within the range of Iranian missiles.

The warning from Revolutionary Guards commander Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari is the latest message from Tehran that it will strike back if attacked.

Israel and the United States suspect Iran's nuclear program is a cover for weapons production and say they would not accept a nuclear-armed Iran.

Tehran denies the accusation and says its nuclear activity is for generating power.

Iran's Shahab-3 missiles have a range of up to 1,250 miles, putting Israel within striking distance.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,506813,00.html

[gtalum]

Iran 'has no bomb-grade uranium'

Iran has no weapons-grade uranium, US military officials have said in an attempt to clarify recent statements from Washington and Israel.

National Intelligence director Dennis Blair told US senators that Tehran had only low-enriched uranium, which would need processing to be used for weapons.

He said Iran had "not yet made that decision" to convert it.

Mr Blair also said al-Qaeda was weaker now than a year ago thanks to sustained pressure on militant bases in Pakistan.

MORE

Oopsie.

[cycloneye]

Iran will make an announcement about their nuclear program on thursday.

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran's president will deliver some good news this week about the country's first nuclear power plant, a semi-official news agency reported Monday.

The Mehr News Agency said President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will comment on progress at the Bushehr nuclear power plant on a visit to the city of Natanz on Thursday. The news agency quoted Parviz Fattah, the Iranian minister of power.

Fattah said he hopes the nuclear power plant will produce electricity for use as early as this summer, the news agency said.

Fattah added that Iranian scientists had made great achievements in the nuclear field and, on that basis, Ahmadinejad will have good news regarding the nation's nuclear program on Thursday, Mehr reported.



http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast ... index.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Iran 'has no bomb-grade uranium'

Iran has no weapons-grade uranium, US military officials have said in an attempt to clarify recent statements from Washington and Israel.

National Intelligence director Dennis Blair told US senators that Tehran had only low-enriched uranium, which would need processing to be used for weapons.

He said Iran had "not yet made that decision" to convert it.

Mr Blair also said al-Qaeda was weaker now than a year ago thanks to sustained pressure on militant bases in Pakistan.

MORE

Oopsie.

What is the "oopsie" for? People on the other side of the political spectrum from me were certain intelligence agencies would modify the interpretation of the intelligence to fit the desires of the politicians, and they may not have been wrong. The previous administration may have over-estimated Saddam Hussein's WMD capabilities (may have, Hussein had over a year to move or hide them), but other nations, even countries like Germany and France that didn't support action against Hussein thought he had a more advanced WMD capacity than he actually had. Since the previous president made the decision about a year ago to kick the can down the road and hope the problems fixes itself, and nobody in the world now except the likely first target of an Iranian attack, Israel, wants to cause a war in the Persian Gulf that would inflate oil prices and damage already struggling economies, announcements from intelligence agencies that Iran is far from being nuclear capable isn't completely surprising.

India is not surprising, they have some pretty advanced technology and some very well educated scientists, but if Pakistan can build nuclear weapons, even crude ones, anyone can. Iran has one thing, oil money, Pakistan doesn't have, and may have purchased a nice head start from the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb, AQ Khan. Iran, North Korea, and Syria may all be working together towards the goal of not just manufacturing a bomb, but designing and building one that can be mated to a ballistic missile.

BTW, Pakistan's nuclear test took most of the world's security agencies by surprise.


Nobody but the Iranians (maybe the Israelis, they have the most to lose and the reputation for having the best human intelligence of any nation) really knows how close Iran is to having a bomb.


However, Iran has the world's second largest reserves of natural gas. Natural gas is difficult to export, but perfect for generating electricity in easily built gas powered turbine power plants. Kind of a smell test, or Occam's Razor kind of thing, but for a nation with no real need for nuclear generated electricity to go through so much trouble diplomatically, would seem to suggest that the real reason for their nuclear program is to develop atomic weapons.

[Derek Ortt]

Iran will probably expand it since they got the go ahead from Pyongyang

Pyongyang is now confident that we will not do anything to stop their plans