Iran Nuclear Standoff

[x-y-no]

Finally, when do we realize that Saudi Arabia and China are not our friends?

Good question. I've been wondering about that for a long time.

[cycloneye]

I am woondering about another countrie that the .U.S. has been in love in recents years since 9/11,Pakistan.There are mixed signals about how has been the relationship betweem the Musharraf goverment and the U.S.On one hand,the Pakistanis look like they are cracking down Al Qaeda,but on the other hand,they are doing little as they dont want to be seen as too cooperative to the U.S by the people in that countrie.And the worse is that they have nuclear weapons,that can in a very easy way fall into the hands of the terrorists.

By the way,there is a state of emergency in Pakistan:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21609019/

[x-y-no]

By the way,there is a state of emergency in Pakistan:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21609019/

Wow ... this is a very bad development. I guess Musharraf got the inside word that the court ruling wasn't going to go his way.

[cycloneye]

Note=I didnt saw the new thread for the Pakistan situation until recently,so from now on all the information and comments about the Pakistan state of emergency can be posted there.

Link to Pakistan thread: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=98928&p=1663833#p1663833

[Derek Ortt]

My view is that the U.S. has to talk directly to Iran about them not helping with the iraq situation by helping the shiats.About the nuclear program the same talk to them has to take place.Look what has happened with North Korea recently,with the agreement from them to dismantle their nuclear program after diplomacy was the key there.The problem in Irans case is that the president of Iran is very hard to have talks with.But the U.S. can make a try.

yeah, and NK was just caught helping Syria build a nuke facility, resulting in the Israeli airstrike. Nothing has changed at all with NK via diplomacy

[Derek Ortt]

By the way,there is a state of emergency in Pakistan:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21609019/

Wow ... this is a very bad development. I guess Musharraf got the inside word that the court ruling wasn't going to go his way.

The SOE is necessary. If Musharraf is gone, we then have Al Queda running a country with nukes. Don't want to get political, but there may be something far more important than Democracy at stake here

[cycloneye]

BEIJING, China (AP) -- U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Monday hailed deepening dialogue between the United States and China and said Beijing is helping to put pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program.


Gates has made it clear that he is pursuing a closer alliance with China.

At a news conference with Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan following their meeting, Gates said they "discussed ways to build on positive momentum in our defense relations and how to use these interactions to improve communications and reduce the risk of misunderstanding."

Cao described his meeting with Gates as "pragmatic, candid, and productive" and said future military exchanges will "deepen our friendship and cooperation."

The two men emphasized bilateral cooperation and communication, but they also discussed the issue of Iran's nuclear ambitions.

"We agreed that it's important to pursue efforts to persuade the Iranian government to change their behavior and their policies peacefully, through diplomatic means," Gates said. They discussed continued and increased economic pressure "as a way of persuading the Iranian government to make different choices."

Gates said North Korea and Sudan are two other areas where China could play an important supporting role.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/ameri ... index.html

China is trying to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

[cycloneye]

BIRJAND, Iran — Iran has achieved a landmark, with 3,000 centrifuges fully working in its controversial uranium enrichment program, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Wednesday.

"We have now reached 3,000 machines," Ahmadinejad told thousands of Iranians gathered in Birjand, in eastern Iran, in a show of defiance of international demands to halt the program believed to be masking the country's nuclear arms efforts.

Ahmadinejad has in the past claimed that Iran succeeded in installing the 3,000 centrifuges at its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. But Wednesday's claim was his first official statement that the plant is now fully operating all those centrifuges.

When Iran first announced launching the 3,000 centrifuges in April, the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Tehran had only 328 centrifuges up and running at Natanz's underground facility.

In a recent report, drawn up by IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei, the agency put the number of centrifuges working in Natanz at close to 2,000, with another 650 being tested.

Uranium gas, spun in linked centrifuges, can result in either low-enriched fuel suitable to generate power in a nuclear reactor, or the weapons-grade material that forms the fissile core of nuclear warheads.

The U.S. and some of its Western allies believe Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a cover for weapons' development. Tehran denies this, insisting its nuclear program is geared toward generating electricity, not a nuclear bomb.

U.S. experts say 3,000 centrifuges are in theory enough to produce a nuclear weapon, perhaps as soon as within a year.

Iran says it plans to expand its enrichment program to up to 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz in central Iran — which would amount to the level of industrial-scale uranium enrichment.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,308903,00.html

If this is true,then they are one step closer towards having a nuclear bomb.

[Cryomaniac]

My personal opinion is that Israel will do something before the US, but not instead of the US.

[cycloneye]

My personal opinion is that Israel will do something before the US, but not instead of the US.

I haved been thinking of that too.Israel may go ahead and bomb those nuke plants before the U.S does.

[HURAKAN]

If Israel attacks then it will surely be a war because Iran will feel that was a provocation to go to war. Now, Israel is supported by the United States and other western powers. Muslim countries will most likely ally with Iran and then the United States will have to fight two wars.

Oil prices are already sky high, and a war of this proportion will make the situation unbearable.

That's why, for the best of both worlds, and for the best of humanity, we need to get to a compromise. You give me this that I want and I give you this that you want. But using treats as a method of persuasion is not going to work and it's not working.

No one likes being told what to do in that way, especially if's a western power talking to a Muslim country. It may have worked with Pakistan and others, but it's not working now, and something must change.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,I also want peace to reach the Mid-East region,but the problem with having peace talks with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are going to be a waste of time as he continues to say that the nuclear program is going foward without stopping.

[vbhoutex]

My personal opinion is that Israel will do something before the US, but not instead of the US.

I haved been thinking of that too.Israel may go ahead and bomb those nuke plants before the U.S does.

Unfortunately that would not surprise me at all. I fear what will happen if that is done. It could escalate uncontrollably very quickly imo mostly due to regional and religious alliances.

[cycloneye]

It could escalate uncontrollably very quickly imo mostly due to regional and religious alliances.

That is also my biggest fear about this standoff getting out of control.

[Cryomaniac]

HURAKAN,I also want peace to reach the Mid-East region,but the problem with having peace talks with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are going to be a waste of time as he continues to say that the nuclear program is going foward without stopping.

Exactly. There's only so long can be spent battering your head on some mad bugger's wall. As I have mentioned before, I personally called for (On this board and elsewhere) for punative military action against Iran after the kidnapping of the British sailors back in February / March.

I don't like making predictions of anything, but I will stand by this and say, right now, we will be lucky to get out of this year without an attack either by Iran, or against Iran.

[HURAKAN]

If the United States was able to reach an agreement with the USSR during the Cuban Nuclear Crisis and avert a major conflict between two super powers, I think it's really possible to reach an agreement in this case.

The difference here is that the United States is demanding and not talking about reaching a compromise. The United States is trying to impose its power as a super power over Iran, and they're saying they are not going to be subjugated, that's all. Another difference is that we had Kennedy as president during the Cuban Nuclear Crisis and now we have Bush. One democrat, the other, republican.

If diplomacy doesn't work, then the Doomsday clock should be closer to 12 o'clock than before.

I just feel that we live in such a violent world that people are being drawn to resolve every disagreement with violence. Don't you see TV every day. It's like humanity is falling apart in front our own eyes. How many schools have been victims of shootings this year? It has increased dramatically compared to years before. Everything we see on TV reflects some kind of violence.

At the end, we're all humans and if we are going to continue living in this planet with the technology that we're developing, peace must be achieved at all cost.

[brunota2003]

Is it more shootings in general, or more press coverage? 15 or 20 years ago, were there just as many? Possibly, but without these 4 or 5 channels covering them 24/7/365, how would you know how many there were in another state?

[cycloneye]

As I said in a post at page 5,Israel may strike first the nuke plants and that is the theme of this press release at below hypertext link.

U.S. Fears of Israel bombing Iran first

[Nimbus]

Looks like Egypt is trying to reduce tensions by creating an Arab Co Op for Nuclear energy production.

Last week, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced the relaunch of his country’s nuclear energy program, on hold since the 1986 Soviet Chernobyl disaster.

“We have proposed a solution, which is to create a consortium for all users of enriched uranium to do it in a collective manner that would distribute nuclear fuel according to need,” Prince Saud Al-Faisal told the Middle East Economic Digest.]

full article:
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7&section ... =11&y=2007

Pooling fuel resources in the middle east would eliminate the problem of a single mad government trying to subvert peacetime nuclear development into a weapons program. This would also make the job of overseeing the program by the IAEA much easier since the dangerous enrichment part of the process would take place in a single easy to monitor area.

I would expect that technology from the Iran program would be utilized by the other Arab countries since they appear to be furthest along with the project. No word on which neutral area the enrichment process would take place yet.

[Cryomaniac]

Looks like Egypt is trying to reduce tensions by creating an Arab Co Op for Nuclear energy production.

Last week, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced the relaunch of his country’s nuclear energy program, on hold since the 1986 Soviet Chernobyl disaster.

“We have proposed a solution, which is to create a consortium for all users of enriched uranium to do it in a collective manner that would distribute nuclear fuel according to need,” Prince Saud Al-Faisal told the Middle East Economic Digest.]

full article:
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7&section ... =11&y=2007

Pooling fuel resources in the middle east would eliminate the problem of a single mad government trying to subvert peacetime nuclear development into a weapons program. This would also make the job of overseeing the program by the IAEA much easier since the dangerous enrichment part of the process would take place in a single easy to monitor area.

I would expect that technology from the Iran program would be utilized by the other Arab countries since they appear to be furthest along with the project. No word on which neutral area the enrichment process would take place yet.

That's fine as long as Iran agrees to it.