H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

[wx247]

http://www.ky3.com/news/local/50970277.html

Story above is from my area where seven people have been confirmed to have swine flu at a church camp. 53 individuals have been quarantined after showing symptoms.

[cycloneye]

Number of deaths related to virus increases to 19 in Puerto Rico

Also,the numbers of probable cases has increased.

http://www.primerahora.com/diario/notic ... 1n1/316855

[Cookiely]

FLORIDA
June 1 166
June 5 247
June 12 417
June 19 562
June 26 941
July 2 1302
July 10 1781
July 17 2188 Sixteen deaths
Flu Season is from October to May
I sure thought it would be tapering off before starting the second wave but it doesn't seem to be.
TAMPA (Bay News 9) -- A Busch Gardens employee has been diagnosed with swine flu.
A spokesperson says the employee, a female, has not worked last Sunday. She was diagnosed shortly after that.
It's not clear what the employee's job was, but employees in her group were notified.
Bay News 9 was told almost every employee at Busch Gardens has at least limited contact with guests.
The company sent out an employee informational bulletin to stress the sanitizing measures and ways to stay safe.
Busch Gardens didn't release many details, citing privacy laws.
Bay News 9 was told the employee is feeling much better and feels that she can return next week.
http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2009 ... 97512.html
Just reported on television that a child in Brandon at Bell Shoals vacation bible school has tested positive for H1N1.

[cycloneye]

40% of U.S. Population could get swine flu in next two years

ATLANTA – U.S. health officials say swine flu could strike up to 40 percent of Americans over the next two years and as many as several hundred thousand could die if a vaccine campaign and other measures aren't successful.

Those estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mean about twice the number of people who usually get sick in a normal flu season would be struck by swine flu. Officials said those projections would drop if a new vaccine is ready and widely available, as U.S. officials expect.

The U.S. may have as many as 160 million doses of swine flu vaccine available sometime in October, and U.S. tests of the new vaccine are to start shortly, federal officials said this week.

The infection estimates are based on a flu pandemic from 1957, which killed nearly 70,000 in the United States but was not as severe as the infamous Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19. But influenza is notoriously hard to predict. The number of deaths and illnesses would drop if the pandemic peters out or if efforts to slow its spread are successful, said CDC spokesman Tom Skinner.

A CDC official said the agency came up with the estimate last month, but it was first disclosed in an interview with The Associated Press.

"Hopefully, mitigation efforts will have a big impact on future cases," Skinner said.

In a normal flu season, about 36,000 people die from flu and its complications, according to American Medical Association estimates. Because so many more people are expected to catch the new flu, the number of deaths over two years could range from 90,000 to several hundred thousand, the CDC calculated. Again, that is if a new vaccine and other efforts fail.

The World Health Organization says as many as 2 billion people could become infected over the next two years — nearly one-third of the world population. The estimates look at potential impacts over a two-year period because past flu pandemics have occurred in waves over more than one year.

WHO officials believe the world is in the early phase of the new pandemic.

First identified in April, swine flu has likely infected more than 1 million Americans, the CDC believes, with many of those suffering mild cases never reported. There have been 302 deaths and nearly 44,000 reported cases, according to numbers released Friday morning.

Because the swine flu virus is new, most people haven't developed an immunity against it. So far, most of those who have died from it in the United States have had other health problems, such as asthma.

The virus has caused an unusual number of serious illnesses in teens and young adults; seasonal flu usually is toughest on the elderly and very young children.

New swine flu illness have erupted through the summer, which is also unusual, though cases were less widespread this month. Officials fear an explosion of cases in the fall, when children return to school and the weather turns cold, making the virus easier to spread.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090724/ap_ ... _swine_flu

[vbhoutex]

I had a very interesting conversation with my family doctor yesterday during an appointment. He had diagnosed me with bronchitis in May. I was sick for about 2 1/2 weeks and it definitely was an upper respiratory problem. I haven't been that sick for that long in any recent memory. Long story short, my wife and I from reading different things and seeing information on both the internet and the tv had started to think I had the swine flu. So I asked him if it was a possibility/probability. His response was "in retrospect, probably, quite possibly". He did say there was a contraindication in that he heard wheezing when he checked my lungs and he said that there was one other contra-indicator but it was small and I don't remember what it was, so...?? The rest of his response was "you better hope you did have it because this fall is not going to be fun." The one thing that makes me think it wasn't is that no one else around me caught it and it is supposed to be highly contagious. Anyway, at least my doctor thinks it is going to be a rough flu season especially for the healthy middle aged group. It makes me more concerned but not scared of a horrendous outbreak, yet.

[HeartofNC]

I work for a state agency. In my building, they stated that in response to the concern for the H1N1 virus, they were installing hand sanitzer - they came in the day after it was announced that more than 2 billion people world wide ,might become infected and placed the foaming non alcohol sanitizers about every 15 FEET. I would say you can take about 5 good paces and reach the next one. . . I wonder what they know.

[cycloneye]

The latest numbers in Puerto Rico are:

Deaths=9
Confirmed cases=62
Not confirmed cases=1,074

[Cookiely]

Florida
2915 and 23 dead
Can you say conflict of interest in the UK!
Government virus expert paid £116k by swine flu vaccine manufacturers
Last updated at 6:37 PM on 27th July 2009

A scientist who advises the Government on swine flu is a paid director of a drugs firm making hundreds of millions of pounds from the pandemic.

Professor Sir Roy Anderson sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), a 20-strong task force drawing up the action plan for the virus.

Yet he also holds a £116,000-a-year post on the board of GlaxoSmithKline, the company selling swine flu vaccines and anti-virals to the NHS.

Sir Roy faced demands to step down yesterday amid claims that the jobs were incompatible. 'This is a clear conflict of interest and should be of great concern to taxpayers and government officials alike,' said Matthew Elliott of the TaxPayers' Alliance.

'You cannot have the man in charge of medical emergencies having any financial interest in the management of those emergencies. We need someone totally unbiased to tackle this crisis.'

The Department of Health and GSK denied there was a conflict and said Sir Roy did not attend Sage meetings where vaccines and drugs were discussed.

Sir Roy was appointed to Sage to 'provide cross-government scientific advice regarding the outbreak of swine flu'. He was one of the first UK experts to call the outbreak a pandemic.

During an interview for Radio Four's Today programme on May 1, he praised the anti-flu drugs and called for their distribution. Listeners were not told he was paid by GSK.

The West London-based drugs giant has had to defend itself from allegations of profiteering from swine flu after posting profits of £2.1billion in the last three months.

Sales of the company's Relenza inhaler, an alternative to Tamiflu used by pregnant women among others, are expected to top £600million. This figure could be boosted by up to £2billion once deliveries of the firm's swine-flu vaccine begin in September.

Sir Roy, 61, who was unavailable for comment yesterday, earned £116,000 at GSK last year, at least a quarter of which he received in shares.

GSK's share price has risen 10 per cent since May from about 1,060p to more than 1,160p.

A spokesman for GSK insisted there was no conflict of interest. 'Professor Anderson stepped down from the government's flu advisory group on appointment to GSK.

'In May, he was asked to rejoin as a temporary member as the scale of the influenza pandemic became evident.

He is a world authority on the epidemiology of infectious diseases and his positions as an adviser to the government and as a member of GSK's board are entirely appropriate.

'These interests have been declared at all times and he has not attended any meetings related to purchase of drugs or vaccine for either the government or GSK.'

A spokesman for Imperial College said Sir Roy's temporarily appointment to Sage was made 'with the full knowledge of the government departments involved in handling the pandemic'.

He added: 'He is not a member of the drug or vaccine sub committees of the flu advisory group.'

During the 2001 foot and mouth outbreak, Sir Roy's advice to Tony Blair led to the culling of more than 6million animals.

The previous year at Oxford University, Sir Roy was at the centre of controversy after claiming a female colleague had slept with her boss before getting a job. He was forced to apologise and pay compensation.

A university inquiry in the wake of the scandal found that he was in breach of rules by failing to disclose his business interests as director and shareholder of International Biomedical and Health Sciences Consortium - an Oxford-based biomedical consultancy, which had awarded grants to his research centre.

Sir Roy was forced to resign, although his career soon recovered. He moved to Imperial College within months, was made the Ministry of Defence's chief scientist and, last year, took over as Rector of Imperial College, London where he earns up to £400,000 a year.

[lurkey]

Pregnant Women Hit Hard With Swine Flu, Likely to Be Among First to Get Vaccinated
Tuesday, July 28, 2009


Swine flu has been hitting pregnant women unusually hard, so they are likely to be among the first group advised to get a new swine flu shot this fall.

Pregnant women account for 6 percent of U.S. swine flu deaths since the pandemic began in April, even though they make up just 1 percent of the U.S. population.

On Wednesday a federal vaccine advisory panel is meeting to take up the question of who should be first to get swine flu shots when there aren't enough for everyone. At the top of the list are health care workers, who would be crucial to society during a bad pandemic.

But pregnant women may be near the top of the list because they have suffered and died from swine flu at disproportionately high rates.

"Are they more at risk for severe disease? That's the issue," and it appears they are, said Dr. Denise Jamieson, an epidemiologist with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Pregnant women's risk from swine flu has been a raging topic in Europe, following the contentious suggestion this month by British and Swiss health officials that women should consider delaying pregnancy if they can.

Most health officials call that advice unwarranted, but have agreed that the health risks are significant. In a recent report, World Health Organization experts found that pregnant women appear to be "at increased risk for severe disease, potentially resulting in spontaneous abortion and/or death, especially during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy."

However, so far, WHO has not recommended that pregnant women get priority vaccinations.

Now doctors are waiting to see what's decided by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, whose guidance usually is accepted by the CDC and influences doctors and insurance coverage.

For more than a decade, the committee has recommended that pregnant women get vaccinated for seasonal flu, which is considered a serious threat even to pregnant women who are young and healthy. Pregnant women are unusually vulnerable — especially in the third trimester — due to changes in the lungs and immune system that make it harder for them to shake off respiratory infections, said Dr. Kevin Ault, an Emory University obstetrician.

CDC data indicate swine flu is at least as dangerous. Of 302 U.S. deaths attributed to swine flu to date, the CDC has detailed information on 266 of them. The agency has found that 15 of the 266 were pregnant women — or about 6 percent.

The first American with swine flu to die was a pregnant woman in Texas. Judy Trunnell, 33, died May 5 after slipping into a coma and giving birth to a healthy baby girl, delivered by Cesarean section.

Some infected pregnant women have other health problems. Trunnell, for example, also had asthma and the skin condition psoriasis. But many of the pregnant women who died were considered relatively healthy, suggesting pregnancy itself is a significant risk, Jamieson said.

"I think the whole concept that this flu only affects pregnant women with underlying medical conditions is incorrect," Jamieson said.

Experts believe an effective vaccine would benefit not only a pregnant woman but also her unborn child.

Infants, whose immune systems are weak, should not get a flu shot until they are at least 6 months old. So whatever immunity they have is passed on to them by their mothers, doctors say.

The belief in the protective powers of a mother's vaccination on their unborn children was demonstrated in a study of women in Bangladesh published last year in the New England Journal of Medicine. It found that flu shots given to pregnant women reduced flu in infants by 63 percent.

Only about 15 percent of pregnant women get seasonal flu shots, experts noted, so it's not clear how many will get the new shot.

Some women avoid regular flu shots, worried about possible risks to the fetus, but studies have not shown any increased dangers from the shot.

Until recently, many obstetricians haven't offered them, choosing to avoid the expense of buying and storing vaccine and the hassle of trying to convince reluctant patients, said Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University flu expert.

"Obstetricians are only now getting with the program and are growing comfortable with administering flu vaccine," he said.

It's not clear that the demand for swine flu shots would be much greater. Pregnant patients haven't expressed much concern about swine flu, said the CDC's Jamieson, who is also an obstetrician seeing inner-city patients at Atlanta's Grady Memorial Hospital.

"It hasn't been a major concern," viewed as a relatively mild illness. They worry more about economic concerns — "how to take care of the baby, how to get food to eat and how to get safe and secure housing," Jamieson said.

So far, swine flu has likely infected more than 1 million Americans, the CDC believes, with at least 300 deaths.

The United States expects to begin testing swine flu vaccines on some volunteers in August, and predicts 160 million doses may be ready by October.

[cycloneye]

Start of School semester delayed in Puerto Rico

The governor just made the announcement of the delay of the start of School for over 700,000 students at public schools in Puerto Rico.The new date for the start of the semester will be August 10.

[Cookiely]

Start of School semester delayed in Puerto Rico

The governor just made the announcement of the delay of the start of School for over 700,000 students at public schools in Puerto Rico.The new date for the start of the semester will be August 10.

I wish they could wait until they have an effective vaccine.

[Derek Ortt]

still overhyped

[southerngale]

Start of School semester delayed in Puerto Rico

The governor just made the announcement of the delay of the start of School for over 700,000 students at public schools in Puerto Rico.The new date for the start of the semester will be August 10.

The DELAYED start is August 10th? When was the original date? That's still crazy early!

[cycloneye]

Start of School semester delayed in Puerto Rico

The governor just made the announcement of the delay of the start of School for over 700,000 students at public schools in Puerto Rico.The new date for the start of the semester will be August 10.

The DELAYED start is August 10th? When was the original date? That's still crazy early!

It was going to start on August 3.Here we start much more early than in the U.S. Mainland.

[Cookiely]

still overhyped

Derek don't you think the case fatality rate in Puerto Rico seems unusually high compared to the case ratio?

[cycloneye]

As of July 29,these are the latest numbers in Puerto Rico.

Deaths=10
Suspisious deaths=24
Confirmed cases=76
Not confirmed cases=1,123

[brunota2003]

10/76 = 0.1315

[Extremeweatherguy]

10/76 = 0.1315

So basically about 13.15%.

That's pretty high compared to what has been happening elsewhere.

The total U.S. death percentage is closer to 0.7% (302 deaths/43,771 cases).

[cycloneye]

The population of Puerto Rico as of the 2000 census was at 3.8 millon.It is known that when next years census comes it will jump to around 4.1 millon.That is why the rates are high.

[somethingfunny]

10/76 = 0.1315

76 cases severe enough to justify spending resources on getting an official test. There's 1,123 "suspected" cases that doctors haven't gotten lab test results on. Also include the 24 "suspicious" deaths as accurate and you'll get 34/1,199. Still 2.8% mortality which is very bad, but 13.15% gives the impression of an apocalyptic Horseman.

There are alot more undocumented cases of H1N1 because they never became so severe that the patient had to be hospitalized in intensive case and therefore never justified an official blood test. That's the way it's been with this disease ever since it emerged in Mexico - the milder cases never get documented.

That's not to say it's been "overhyped". It's a much bigger deal than the regular seasonal influenza.....