LIBERAL YALE PROFESSOR PREDICTS HUGE BUSH WIN!!!

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i posted this before from liberal economics professor Ray Fair from yale:

Presidential Vote Equation--April 29, 2004
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (February 5, 2004) were 3.0 percent, 1.9 percent, and 3, respectively. The current predictions from the US model (April 29, 2004) are 3.2 percent, 2.0 percent, and 3, respectively. In the previous forecast 2004:1 was predicted to be a GOODNEWS quarter, but it turned out not to be. For the current forecast 2004:2 is predicted to be a GOODNEWS quarter, so the total number of GOODNEWS quarters is the same at 3. The economic predictions thus changed very little. The prediction of GROWTH, the per capita growth rate in the first three quarters of 2004 at an annual rate, has increased to 3.2 from 3.0 for the previous forecast, and the prediction of INFLATION has increased from 1.9 to 2.0. These new economic values give a prediction of 58.74 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 58.68 percent before. The main message that the equation has been making from the beginning is thus not changed, namely that President Bush is predicted to win by a sizable margin.
Note that both quarters 2003:4 and 2004:1 are close to being good news quarters. The non per capita growth rates are 4.1 and 4.2 percent respectively, and with population growing at about 1 percent, these are per capita growth rates of 3.1 and 3.2 percent respectively. The trigger for a good news quarter is 3.2 percent per capita growth. In the above discussion I have not counted 2004:1 as a good news quarter because the growth rate to two decimal places is slightly less than 4.2 percent, but this is a very close call. If both of these quarters are counted as good news quarters, the vote prediction rises from 58.74 percent to 60.42 percent, since each good news quarter contributes 0.837 percentage points to the vote prediction.

he has been quite accurate in the past. and the economy is booming, not recovering. growth rate in 2004 in gpd will be above 5%

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???????????????????????????? i posted good news about bush and no replies????????????????????????????????????????????

[chadtm80]

Maybe people are getting tired of your mumbo jumbo?? I dunno.. Just a thought

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ah, you dont like me.

[chadtm80]

LOL.. On the contrary.. I like you very much (I think you should know that seeing how I got involved in some issues involving you "elsewhere" ) I dont like your flip flops.. But I do like you personally.. Im just stating maybe some are getting tired of.. BUSH ALL THE WAY one day.. then BUSH IS GOING TO FALL FLAT ON HIS FACE the next

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i just think bush keeps trying to make liberals and the media like him. thats a losing strategy. today he made bill and hillary seem like the 2 most perfect human beings god ever created, and tomorrow they will be out ripping him a new one.

[Stephanie]

Bush is trying to appeal to more of the public. The 50/50 polls do say an awful lot about how people are feeling about the leadership of this country as a whole. It hasn't changed from the 2000 elections. Heck this board is a PRIME example of the feelings of Americans currently!

Perhaps Helen, people were shocked that you were quoting a "liberal" source?