Update on H5N1 influenza

[Windy]

I subscribe to PROMED, a professional infectious disease worker's email list. (I'm not a professional infectious disease worker, but they make their list open to anyone who wants to join and this has been by far the best place to keep up on this story.) Anyway, Indonesia is experiencing a recent spike of human cases. They still have no evidence of human to human transmission, but there have been quite a few new cases in the past 24 hours. I've cut and pasted the relevant parts of the email below; they generally will post the relevant news articles or professional commentary, followed in brackets by a brief summary of thoughts from the moderator. If/whenever the pandemic starts, I'll try to post the info here. It could be years from now, it could be never, it could be tomorrow -- but this email list will probably get a slight jump on the national news networks.

Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 19:08:16 -0400 (EDT)
From: ProMED-mail <promed@promed.isid.harvard.edu>
Subject: PRO/AH/EDR> Avian influenza, human - East Asia (136): Indonesia

AVIAN INFLUENZA, HUMAN - EAST ASIA (136): INDONESIA
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[1]
Date: Wed 28 Sep 2005
From: Joe Dudley <jdudley@eaicorp.com>
Source: MediaCorp, Channel News Asia, Agence France Press report, Wed 28
Sep 2005 [edited]
<http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/170706/1/.html>


Indonesia: At least 57 People Suspected of Contracting Avian Influenza
- -----------------------------------------------
At least 57 people were being treated for suspected avian influenza in
Indonesia, where the disease has already claimed 6 lives, officials said.
Of that total, 20 patients were under observation at Jakarta's Sulianti
Saroso Hospital for Infectious Diseases, a doctor there, Ilham Patu, said.
The latest suspected case, a 23-year-old man from the capital, was admitted
late on Tue 27 Sep 2005.

Blood and mucus samples from the patients were being tested locally, with
any positive results indicating avian influenza virus infection being sent
to the World Health Organization laboratories in Hong Kong for
confirmation. Since Monday [26 Sep 2005], the hospital has released 5
people who were suspected of having contracted avian influenza but had
tested negative.

Health ministry spokesman Sumardi said on Wednesday [28 Sep 2005] that a
shipment of some 20 000 doses of Tamiflu, an anti-viral medication that can
stop flu [i.e. reduce symptoms of influenza] if given quickly when symptoms
first develop, will arrive in the country on Friday [30 Sep 2005]. "This
medicine will be sold commercially at pharmacies," he said. So far, it has
only been available in hospitals.

6 Indonesians have died of avian influenza, bringing to 65 the number of
people in Southeast Asia known to have died from H5N1 avian influenza virus
infection since 2003. Viet Nam has recorded 43 deaths, Thailand 12 and
Cambodia 4. The WHO fears H5N1 will mutate, acquiring genes from the human
influenza virus that would make it highly infectious and lethal to millions
in a global pandemic. But it has also urged calm, saying investigations in
Indonesia had produced no evidence that H5N1 was spreading easily from
person to person.

- --
Joseph P. Dudley, Ph.D.
Chief Scientist
EAI Corporation
4301 North Fairfax Drive
Suite 200
Arlington, VA 22203
<jdudley@eaicorp.com>

******
[2]
Date: Wed 28 Sep 2005
From: A-Lan Banks <A-Lan.Banks@thomson.com>
Source: News 24 (South Africa), Wed 28 Sep 2005 [edited]
<http://www.news24.com/News24/World/News/0,,2-10-1462_1807900,00.html>


Indonesia: At least 54 People Being Treated for Avian Influenza Virus Infection
- -----------------------------------------------
At least 54 people were being treated on Wednesday [28 Sep 2005] for
suspected avian influenza in Indonesia, where the disease had already
claimed 6 lives, said officials. Deputy director of Jakarta's Sulianto
Saroso hospital, Sardikin Giriputro, said they would soon discharge 3 of 20
suspected bird flu patients, after tests gave them a clean bill of health.
He said the 3, 2 adult men and one 2-year-old infant would be able to leave
the hospital once a clearance was obtained from the Health Ministry.

The latest suspected case, a 23-year-old man from the capital, was admitted
to the hospital late on Tuesday [27 Sep 2005]. Blood and mucus samples from
the patients were being tested locally, and any results indicating bird flu
would be sent to World Health Organization (WHO) laboratories in Hong Kong
for confirmation. Since Monday, the hospital had released 5 people who were
suspected of contracting bird flu, but tested negative.

Health ministry spokesperson Sumardi said on Wednesday [28 Sep 2005] that a
shipment of some 20 000 doses of Tamiflu, an anti-viral medication that
could stop flu if administered promptly, would arrive in the country on
Friday. He said: "This medicine will be sold commercially at pharmacies."
So far, it has only been available in hospitals.

6 Indonesians had died of bird flu, bringing to 65 the number of people in
Southeast Asia known to have been killed by the H5N1 strain of the virus
since 2003. Viet Nam had recorded 43 deaths, Thailand 12 and Cambodia 4.

- --
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[In the past 24 hours, the number of suspected cases of avian influenza in
Indonesia has increased from 42 to 57 in one report, or 54 in the other
report. The total number of deaths attributed to avian H5N1 influenza virus
infection remains unchanged at 6, a total which includes a patient whose
samples gave conflicting results and whose status remains unresolved. 3 of
20 suspected avian influenza virus cases have tested negative and are about
to be discharged. It is not certain that these 20 suspected cases are new
cases or are included in the suspected total, but the difference of 3
between the 2 reports could be accounted for by subtraction of these 3
negative-test patients. The results of confirmatory tests in the
WHO-accredited laboratory in Hong Kong are awaited to provide an accurate
assessment of the current disease situation in Indonesia. - Mod.CP]

[see also:
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (135): Indonesia 20050927.2848
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (134): Indonesia 20050924.2818
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (133): Indonesia 20050922.2804
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (132): 20050922.2794
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (131): Indonesia 20050921.2785
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (130): Indonesia 20050921.2779
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (129): Indonesia 20050919.2769
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (127): Indonesia 20050919.2763
Avian influenza - Asia (27): Indonesia, zoo birds 20050918.2760
Avian influenza, human: LPAI susceptibility 20050918.2759
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (126): Indonesia 20050918.2758
Avian influenza, human - East Asia (125): Indonesia, conf. 20050916.2736]
........................cp/msp/dk

[DAVE440]

"They still have no evidence of human to human transmission, but there have been quite a few new cases in the past 24 hours."

Hmm....interesting...

I saw WIDE ANGLE last week and they did a 1 hour special on the Avian Flu and said that a nurse who had not eaten poultry but was working with infected patients got it. Maybe not documented...? Or...maybe wasn't sick with the same thing the patient had. The nurse survived....but...there have been survivors of Avian flu.

Even if there are no cases (or non documented) the main fear is that the virus will mutatate into one capable of being transmitted by humans.

Actually....there's also a new dog flu runnin around... Think I'll start a post.