ATL: Ex INVEST 98L - Discussion

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Steve
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#101 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:56 pm

Kingarabian wrote:HMON and HWRF relocate the center within the next 24 hours and landfall it near or at TS strength.

But it's looking pretty dead convection wise.



Expected IMHO. Look for stuff to refire between Corpus and North Padre in the next couple hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#102 Postby Craters » Sun Aug 14, 2022 1:02 am

Well, Steve, you definitely nailed that one. :notworthy:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#103 Postby ChrisH-UK » Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:56 am

0700z GOES-17 Proxy Visible + Clean IR 3 hour loop.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#104 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 14, 2022 5:19 am

Looks like landfall with diminishing precip on western side of storm.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/corpus-christi/78401/weather-radar/331130
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#105 Postby ThomasW » Sun Aug 14, 2022 5:58 am

98L's done. Had a good try but it ran out of time. now, we wait (Probably until mid-September)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#106 Postby MHC Tracking » Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:08 am

ThomasW wrote:98L's done. Had a good try but it ran out of time. now, we wait (Probably until mid-September)

Honestly, that makes little sense with the upcoming BoC signal and increased activity now being shown on the 15 day ECENS. If the NATL fails to produce another storm by the end of august I'd be floored.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#107 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:30 am

If this convective activity would have occured well offshore, it would have been TD or TS Danielle, but beneficial rain is falling in that area that needs it.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#108 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:40 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 14 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased early this morning
in association with an area of low pressure area located near the
coast of Texas just south-southeast of Corpus Christi. Surface and
radar observations indicate that the circulation has become a
little better defined, however the center is expected to move
inland over southern Texas this morning and further significant
development is not anticipated. Regardless of development, heavy
rains are forecast across southern Texas through Monday, which could
cause localized areas of flash flooding. For more information about
the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service office and the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
For more information on the system, see products issued by the
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#109 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:30 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#110 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:53 am

The low is inland per 12z Best Track. AL, 98, 2022081412, , BEST, 0, 275N, 975W, 25, 1009, LO,

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#111 Postby lrak » Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:12 am

So thankful for the rain...Yes!

We've only had a 1/10 th so far here in CCTX, but a lot of potential remains, keeping fingers crossed. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#112 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:38 am

Story of this season so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#113 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Aug 14, 2022 9:59 am

It looks a depression which formed directly at the landfall, similar to Colin. Maybe a post-season classification?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#114 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:23 am

Craters wrote:Well, Steve, you definitely nailed that one. :notworthy:


This one was easy. Once ICON telegraphed it, it was just a matter of watching how it behaved relative to time of day/night. I did get the watch Texas from Saturday a week ago, but it was 3 days earlier than I thought it would be. So let me throw this out there. Keep watching for another system at the end of the week along the Mexican Pacific coast or Bay of Campeche.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#115 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:28 am

Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:It looks a depression which formed directly at the landfall, similar to Colin. Maybe a post-season classification?

https://i.imgur.com/Azmq9tc.gif

Possible but I doubt it. Lol if this just had 12 more hours, it would've probably been named.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#116 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 14, 2022 10:36 am

saved loop
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#117 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:11 am

lrak wrote:So thankful for the rain...Yes!

We've only had a 1/10 th so far here in CCTX, but a lot of potential remains, keeping fingers crossed. 8-)


Happier now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#118 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:24 am

These systems always seem to get their act together right before landfall, too late now clearly

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#119 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:35 am

Me thinks tropical cyclone. Conditions are clearly favorable.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#120 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Aug 14, 2022 11:48 am

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