ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm about 60 miles south of the LLC, winds are very calm right now. Had a good feeder band come through a few hours ago. Very light on convection right now, but I'm sure Florida will light up like a Christmas tree with thunderstorms this evening.

[cycloneye]

LOw about to reach the coast on Titusville / Cape Canaveral.

[kevin]

Lowest measurement so far is 1011.9 mb and the highest 10-minute sustained wind speed is 50 kmh (27 kt). I mistook the conversion factor since I usually use it during landfall and then the off-sea or off-land conversion factors at the coast are much higher. At sea (which is where the highest measured wind speed has occured so far) the conversion factor from 10-minute to 1-minute sustained is only 1.05. So based on the latest ship measurements I'd put the current intensity at 1012 mb / 28 kt.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
Satellite and radar data indicate that the shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of
the east coast of Florida remains disorganized. This system is
forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and
then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across
the northeastern and north-central Gulf.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy
rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1945085556443988129

[MGC]

The MLC is displaced to the SW of the surface circulation due to NE shear. As the day progresses, the LL circulation will likely dissipate over Florida as the MLC continues westward. I'd speculate that a new LL circulation develops under the MLC as the disturbance move over the eastern Gulf on Wednesday evening. Disturbance looks to be fighting dry air for the ridge to its north for days to come despite the very warm surface waters it will transverse. Likely a weak to moderate TS at landfall along the central Gulf coast. That is my thinking this morning after only one cup of coffee........MGC

[cycloneye]

AL, 93, 2025071512, , BEST, 0, 287N, 805W, 25, 1014, DB

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1945098516772089946

[LarryWx]

AL, 93, 2025071512, , BEST, 0, 287N, 805W, 25, 1014, DB

https://i.imgur.com/yu7NRQy.png

Per your next post, which has Andrew Moore’s tweet, this map with its center already near the FL east coast not far from Cape Canaveral, looks like it’s now tracking the mid level center rather than the LLC.

[GCANE]

Convective cap just lifted across the state.
Watching how well this holds up by the time it gets to the GOM.

[wxman57]

I think it qualified as a TD yesterday afternoon, as it was as well organized as Barry or Chantal. I see that one of the newer NHC forecasters, Lisa Bucci, updated Hagen's outlook and kept development chances at 40%. Perhaps she didn't feel comfortable going higher? It may well turn out that it was at its peak this morning. ICON has come around to all other models now. It no longer has a 55-60kt TS into SE LA, just a weak low. Of note is that all the heavy rain will be west of the low track, into the middle to SW LA coast. Not too much for SE LA right of the track. Looking like a weak low with about 25kt wind to its north and east when it nears SE LA. Look for the more experienced NHC forecasters to up the development chances today. Don't know if they'll go 70%, as they'd need advisories.

[GCANE]

Mid-level circulation looks to be in the middle of the state already. Pretty broad.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor2.GIF

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[hiflyer]

NOAA42 is up out of Lakeland. The P3. Heading west towards the Gulf. Maybe a test hop or relocating as do not see any mission posted.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1945119169113919992

[cycloneye]

NOAA42 is up out of Lakeland. The P3. Heading west towards the Gulf. Maybe a test hop or relocating as do not see any mission posted.

Is a training mission.

[BobHarlem]

There's a spin visible at the low levels on shooting nnw off the area, but the buoy reports and vort charts show the area off Volusia/Brevard Florida being the center. 93L is somewhat messy this morning. The MLC is still moving through Central Florida.

[MississippiWx]

Believe 93L’s chances at 40% look good. I think it looks less likely to develop than yesterday. Structure is poor, and the low has moved too far to the north. Dry air/shear are wreaking havoc. A tropical depression could form, I guess, but the rain amounts will be more important than any classification.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1945122542634537343

[Nimbus]

The MLC is displaced to the SW of the surface circulation due to NE shear. As the day progresses, the LL circulation will likely dissipate over Florida as the MLC continues westward. I'd speculate that a new LL circulation develops under the MLC as the disturbance move over the eastern Gulf on Wednesday evening. Disturbance looks to be fighting dry air for the ridge to its north for days to come despite the very warm surface waters it will transverse. Likely a weak to moderate TS at landfall along the central Gulf coast. That is my thinking this morning after only one cup of coffee........MGC

Classic you can see the remains of the LLC dissipating and rotating around above the MLC, there may be a new LLC trying to form near the lightning strikes just a little too late offshore. Glad to see the dry shear doing the job!

[cycloneye]

Rain is the biggest hazard from this system.

 https://x.com/BrooksWeather/status/1945139771396805055