NATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Kazmit]

Created the models thread for 92L.

Euro and ICON are much further SW than the GFS, as is usually the case. The GFS was way too far east for both 91L and Erin, so I’m having a hard time trusting it right now.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET like prior run threatens Bermuda with this run aimed only a little E of there:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 17.5N 46.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2025 60 18.3N 47.8W 1007 41
1200UTC 18.09.2025 72 20.5N 50.5W 1007 43
0000UTC 19.09.2025 84 21.3N 53.4W 1007 41
1200UTC 19.09.2025 96 22.5N 55.5W 1007 31
0000UTC 20.09.2025 108 23.3N 57.0W 1007 32
1200UTC 20.09.2025 120 25.2N 58.1W 1007 38
0000UTC 21.09.2025 132 26.6N 58.4W 1004 44
1200UTC 21.09.2025 144 27.7N 60.4W 1002 41
0000UTC 22.09.2025 156 29.0N 61.7W 999 49
1200UTC 22.09.2025 168 30.6N 62.4W 995 51

[jhpigott]

A pretty significant SW shift in the 12z GEFS ensembles with a number of members getting into the central/NW Bahamas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2025091512&fh=0

[TomballEd]

Created the models thread for 92L.

Euro and ICON are much further SW than the GFS, as is usually the case. The GFS was way too far east for both 91L and Erin, so I’m having a hard time trusting it right now.

I think NHC agrees, cherry blob bends back W at the end.

[LarryWx]

12Z runs:

-GFS/CMC favoring an H but well E of Bermuda

-Euro is very close to but just NE of Bermuda with an H

-Icon is well to the SW of those other 3 and it’s fate is still unknown at 180 with it a TS S of Bermuda just starting a NW recurve

-12Z JMA out to 72 so far: TC moving NW way out there

-12Z UKMET like prior run threatens Bermuda with this run aimed only a little E of there

[BobHarlem]

0z Euro is doing a "<" style track, just southeast of Bermuda. Gets down to 938mb at its closest point to Bermuda (9/25).

[Pelicane]

A pretty significant SW shift in the 12z GEFS ensembles with a number of members getting into the central/NW Bahamas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2025091512&fh=0

It's been hinting at that since 18z yesterday. There is a HP north of the islands that would trap it if it headed far enough west. Doubt it'd get all the way to the Bahamas with all the troughing but it would put Bermuda at a higher risk. Euro AI has been showing that potential consistently.

[LarryWx]

12Z JMA completed (fwiw): Although the 72 hour map had it recurving NW seemingly way out in safe recurve land, it then turned W through 144 getting it to 21N, 62W (similar to Icon). Then it does a recurve WNW and then NW ending at 25N, 70W.

[cycloneye]

The spaghetti models go well away from the islands but people in Bermuda should watch closely.