ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Looks closer to the ICON vs other models. I think that's for sure. Question remains of how far sou5h it drops in the GOM. That will determine the land point and intensity.

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

That sure looks like a vigorous LLC on the north side of the convection. It looks like a TD right now to me

[Sciencerocks]

That sure looks like a vigorous LLC on the north side of the convection. It looks like a TD right now to me

100% agree. Likely closed and will probably become a PTD or PTS within the next 12 hours. I think the models bending this northward and keeping it over land is very unlikely. So it will probably restrengthen once it moves back into the gulf.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That sure looks like a vigorous LLC on the north side of the convection. It looks like a TD right now to me

100% agree. Likely closed and will probably become a PTD or PTS within the next 12 hours. I think the models bending this northward and keeping it over land is very unlikely. So it will probably restrengthen once it moves back into the gulf.

Most of them also seem to be initializing too far north as well

[Steve]

That sure looks like a vigorous LLC on the north side of the convection. It looks like a TD right now to me

100% agree. Likely closed and will probably become a PTD or PTS within the next 12 hours. I think the models bending this northward and keeping it over land is very unlikely. So it will probably restrengthen once it moves back into the gulf.

It's possible they're (or the ICON is) focusing on the wrong part of the energy. We'll see if we get any hints to shifts one way or the other in the 18z and 00z's.

[ronjon]

Still undergoing some northerly shear with the LLC on the far northern edge of convection. Drier air also on the west side. It is slowly wrapping up though. I guess no recon till tomorrow.

[Ian2401]

GOES data is behind an hour and a half, but reflectivity returns seem to be diminishing somewhat in the far eastern parts of the storm. Hard to tell if this is actually happening without satellite data, but waning convection would line up with an approaching DMIN. I wouldn't be surprised to see convection hit a bit of a lull through this evening and tonight, with convection flaring back up late tonight / early tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

PTC or TD first? (or neither or jump to Dexter)

It depends on what recon finds in terms of organization and intensity.

I thought that recon was scheduled for tomorrow? It'll be over the Florida Peninsula tomorrow. Recon may have to wait until it moves over the NE Gulf on Wednesday morning.

I'm thinking 70% chance NHC will call it a depression by Wednesday afternoon and 80-90% by Thursday morning. Next shift at NHC will be bumping the numbers up considerably, considering how they handled Chantal and Barry.

[SouthFloridawx]

https://imgur.com/a/eRyzIgh

Definitely see something circular eye shaped.

[Tailgater33]

Watch the 5 day movie of 925 and 850mb vorticity on the CIMSS web page. Vorticity seems to be moving due south ATM.

[3090]

Interesting spot/direction for cyclogenesis and supposed eventual movement. Homegrown systems from stalled fronts that end up moving west usually seem to form more often in the eastern Gulf. Stuff like this forming just off the east coast of FL (in my somewhat hazy memory) seem to generally move north/northeast. Hopefully it doesn't get too much time to develop before moving over us.


Looking at the SST's, it's right over the Gulf stream, in water currently at ~29.5° C, warm but not super hot. JUST to the west of where it is though is a relatively cool area of SST's, offshore of Canaveral and the Treasure Coast. SST's in the 26-28° C range. Will have to see if the blob continues due south over the warmer gulf stream or tracks closer to those cooler waters near the coast.

Not sure what you are looking at, because the SST’s are in the 30-31 range as it gets closer to the Florida east coast. As it gets into the GOA, SST’s are 31+. Especially for an area along the north central gulf coast. Plenty of fuel.

[jaguars_22]

looking at the NAM it seems to think the system will split sending the lower pressures inland and sending a separate system into the gulf. Maybe the latest euro isn't out to lunch...

[jaguars_22]

I believe the latest icon is initializing the location much better this run!

[TomballEd]

The thunderstorms forming over land where the ECSB and WCSB are meeting may collapse as the sun starts setting, cold outflow from collapsing storms may not help 93L.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like a developing TD to me... models might be absolutely clueless for this one.

[BobHarlem]

The "Shrimp" look is something I've seen in strengthening tropical systems before, but not sure how much of it is legit or just part of the nighttime storm cycle. If it's legit, may as well make the 8pm TWO 80-90%.

[Ivanhater]

Any recent ASCAT?

[ronjon]

We've had severe thunderstorms here over the peninsula on the west coast near Tampa this afternoon with daytime heating. Storms were heading from north to south as they appear to be steered by counterclockwise flow from the low pressure to the east. This low pressure is definitely packing a punch.

[MississippiWx]

The "Shrimp" look is something I've seen in strengthening tropical systems before, but not sure how much of it is legit or just part of the nighttime storm cycle. If it's legit, may as well make the 8pm TWO 80-90%.
https://i.postimg.cc/nrPrY4bY/goes19-ir-nwatl.gif

I’m not sure it’s really a shrimp look. I think a convergence zone setup inland between the sea breeze from the west and the flow around 93L from the east. This area will likely die out once the sun goes down. In fact, the majority of the convection over water is weakening as we hit diurnal minimum over water.

Hard to say what is going on underneath the hood without ASCAT/recon. Just from visible, it appears the surface low/vort is moving off the west and the mid level area is dropping southwest a bit. If this continues, the globals will be correct. Long way to go for this to be a TC…in my opinion.