Dianmu Advisories

[Anonymous]

892 MB? Could it make 200 mph?

[HURAKAN]

892 MB? Could it make 200 mph?

Floydbuster, remember that pressures in the Atlantic are different to those in the Pacific.

The website below is an example:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[HURAKAN]

[SupertyphoonTip]

Thats 190 MPH by tomorrow afternoon!

[HURAKAN]

Maybe Dianmu wants to take the place of ST Tip in History.

[WXBUFFJIM]

In Japan, watch out next 5-6 days for this dangerous typhoon. Winds could peak over 165 knots with gusts to 200 knots with this supertyphoon over the next day or two. As it reaches near Japan in the next 5-6 days, dangerous typhoon conditions are still a good possibility.


WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (DIANMU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 13.4N8 136.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N8 136.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 15.1N7 136.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 16.6N3 135.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 17.8N6 134.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 18.9N8 133.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 21.5N8 131.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 25.3N0 132.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 30.1N4 133.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.8N2 136.6E6.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 09W (DIANMU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 155
KNOTS. STY 09W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, WITH DVORAK
T-NUMBERS INCREASING BY 1.0 IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRICAL 15 NM EYE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 33 FEET. REFER
TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z0, 160900Z6, 161500Z3 AND 162100Z0.//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ST Dianmu track from another vantage point:

[Anonymous]

This is historic.

[Dave C]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... mages.html
click the Java movie option from the infrared NHC enhancement. It takes a few minutes to download the loop but really gives an awesome look at a fast developing super-typhoon in the West Pacific, the pics are run at 3hr. intervals, 11 frames total

[Anonymous]

Its sayying winds could gust to 200mph--whats the record with tip??

[HURAKAN]

If my mind doesn't trick me is 190 mph, and 870 mb.

[Anonymous]

This could never happen in the Gulf of Mexico, CAN IT?

[Dave C]

there is no automated station on some deserted island in it's path. It should go between Okinawa and Iwo-Jima then weaken as it approaches Japan. I'm not sure about Tip but 5 or 6 years ago super-typhoon Keith passed between Saipan and Rota in the Marianna islands with estimated sustained winds of 185mph gusting to 220 mph, Jim Leonard chased it on Saipan but the eyewall just missed to his south (would have been catostrophic damage).

[HURAKAN]

This could never happen in the Gulf of Mexico, CAN IT?

Well, under extremely excellent upper level conditions and a low moving system, is possible, but several factors have to come together to see something of that magnitude.

[HurricaneBill]

Japan does get hit by major typhoons often.

Here are typhoons between 1945-1997 that struck or brushed Japan as Category 3 or higher.

Typhoon Kate 1951 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 3)

Typhoon Grace 1954 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 3)

(Super) Typhoon June 1954 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 4)

(Super) Typhoon Louise 1955 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 5)

(Super) Typhoon Ida 1958 (Category 4) (peaked as Category 5)

Super Typhoon Vera 1959 (Category 5) (peaked as Category 5)

(Super) Typhoon Nancy 1961 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 5)

Typhoon Thelma 1962 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 4)

(Super) Typhoon Wilda 1964 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 5)

(Super) Typhoon Jean 1965 (Category 4) (peaked as Category 5)

(Super) Typhoon Lucy 1965 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 5)

(Super) Typhoon Shirley 1965 (Category 4) (peaked as Category 4)

Typhoon Ida 1966 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 3)

(Super) Typhoon Anita 1970 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 5)

Typhoon Helen 1972 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 3)

(Super) Typhoon Mireille 1991 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 4)

Typhoon Janis 1992 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 4)

(Super) Typhoon Yancy 1993 (Category 4) (peaked as Category 4)

(Super) Typhoon Oscar 1995 (Category 4) (peaked as Category 5)

(Super) Typhoon Ryan 1995 (Category 3) (peaked as Category 4)

(Super) Typhoon Eve 1996 (Category 4) (peaked as Category 4)

As you can see, the most powerful to strike Japan was Super Typhoon Vera in 1959. Vera made a rare Category 5 landfall.

Vera is also one of the dealiest typhoons to strike Japan, killing nearly 5200.

[HURAKAN]

HurricaneBill, very interesting post!!! Let see what happens after all.

[Derecho]

Maybe Dianmu wants to take the place of ST Tip in History.

It can't, really.

Tip's pressure was actually measured by recon. The winds were extrapolated from a pressure relationship.

The winds and pressure of Dianmu at peak will never be measured, as there's no Pac recon anymore and it won't pass over anywhere where a surface measurement is possible.

I caution again against people treating the pressure of Dianmu in these advisories as "real"....it's a wild-ass guesstimate based entirely on satellite appearance; people make the same mistake for Atlantic storms outside of recon.

And, of course, as noted, for a given wind speed storm pressures in the Pacific are MUCH lower; the background pressures in the Atlantic are really high, thus you have higher winds for a given pressure in the Atlantic.

I've chatted with Australians while following an Atlantic system and they find the idea of having tropical depressions and such with pressures like 1009 mb, TSes with pressures like 1005 mb, etc. hilarious.....such pressures would barely be anything there.

[Derecho]

This is historic.

This is the West Pac; this is ROUTINE

[HURAKAN]

Interesting, Derecho, Interesting!!!

[HURAKAN]

The WPAC is always interesting and active, doesn't matter the month.